3,824 research outputs found

    Validation of Twitter opinion trends with national polling aggregates: Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump

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    Measuring and forecasting opinion trends from real-time social media is a long-standing goal of big-data analytics. Despite its importance, there has been no conclusive scientific evidence so far that social media activity can capture the opinion of the general population. Here we develop a method to infer the opinion of Twitter users regarding the candidates of the 2016 US Presidential Election by using a combination of statistical physics of complex networks and machine learning based on hashtags co-occurrence to develop an in-domain training set approaching 1 million tweets. We investigate the social networks formed by the interactions among millions of Twitter users and infer the support of each user to the presidential candidates. The resulting Twitter trends follow the New York Times National Polling Average, which represents an aggregate of hundreds of independent traditional polls, with remarkable accuracy. Moreover, the Twitter opinion trend precedes the aggregated NYT polls by 10 days, showing that Twitter can be an early signal of global opinion trends. Our analytics unleash the power of Twitter to uncover social trends from elections, brands to political movements, and at a fraction of the cost of national polls

    A meta-analysis of state-of-the-art electoral prediction from Twitter data

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    Electoral prediction from Twitter data is an appealing research topic. It seems relatively straightforward and the prevailing view is overly optimistic. This is problematic because while simple approaches are assumed to be good enough, core problems are not addressed. Thus, this paper aims to (1) provide a balanced and critical review of the state of the art; (2) cast light on the presume predictive power of Twitter data; and (3) depict a roadmap to push forward the field. Hence, a scheme to characterize Twitter prediction methods is proposed. It covers every aspect from data collection to performance evaluation, through data processing and vote inference. Using that scheme, prior research is analyzed and organized to explain the main approaches taken up to date but also their weaknesses. This is the first meta-analysis of the whole body of research regarding electoral prediction from Twitter data. It reveals that its presumed predictive power regarding electoral prediction has been rather exaggerated: although social media may provide a glimpse on electoral outcomes current research does not provide strong evidence to support it can replace traditional polls. Finally, future lines of research along with a set of requirements they must fulfill are provided.Comment: 19 pages, 3 table

    Identifying Purpose Behind Electoral Tweets

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    Tweets pertaining to a single event, such as a national election, can number in the hundreds of millions. Automatically analyzing them is beneficial in many downstream natural language applications such as question answering and summarization. In this paper, we propose a new task: identifying the purpose behind electoral tweets--why do people post election-oriented tweets? We show that identifying purpose is correlated with the related phenomenon of sentiment and emotion detection, but yet significantly different. Detecting purpose has a number of applications including detecting the mood of the electorate, estimating the popularity of policies, identifying key issues of contention, and predicting the course of events. We create a large dataset of electoral tweets and annotate a few thousand tweets for purpose. We develop a system that automatically classifies electoral tweets as per their purpose, obtaining an accuracy of 43.56% on an 11-class task and an accuracy of 73.91% on a 3-class task (both accuracies well above the most-frequent-class baseline). Finally, we show that resources developed for emotion detection are also helpful for detecting purpose

    Measuring relative opinion from location-based social media: A case study of the 2016 U.S. presidential election

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    Social media has become an emerging alternative to opinion polls for public opinion collection, while it is still posing many challenges as a passive data source, such as structurelessness, quantifiability, and representativeness. Social media data with geotags provide new opportunities to unveil the geographic locations of users expressing their opinions. This paper aims to answer two questions: 1) whether quantifiable measurement of public opinion can be obtained from social media and 2) whether it can produce better or complementary measures compared to opinion polls. This research proposes a novel approach to measure the relative opinion of Twitter users towards public issues in order to accommodate more complex opinion structures and take advantage of the geography pertaining to the public issues. To ensure that this new measure is technically feasible, a modeling framework is developed including building a training dataset by adopting a state-of-the-art approach and devising a new deep learning method called Opinion-Oriented Word Embedding. With a case study of the tweets selected for the 2016 U.S. presidential election, we demonstrate the predictive superiority of our relative opinion approach and we show how it can aid visual analytics and support opinion predictions. Although the relative opinion measure is proved to be more robust compared to polling, our study also suggests that the former can advantageously complement the later in opinion prediction

    Organized Behavior Classification of Tweet Sets using Supervised Learning Methods

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    During the 2016 US elections Twitter experienced unprecedented levels of propaganda and fake news through the collaboration of bots and hired persons, the ramifications of which are still being debated. This work proposes an approach to identify the presence of organized behavior in tweets. The Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Logistic Regression algorithms are each used to train a model with a data set of 850 records consisting of 299 features extracted from tweets gathered during the 2016 US presidential election. The features represent user and temporal synchronization characteristics to capture coordinated behavior. These models are trained to classify tweet sets among the categories: organic vs organized, political vs non-political, and pro-Trump vs pro-Hillary vs neither. The random forest algorithm performs better with greater than 95% average accuracy and f-measure scores for each category. The most valuable features for classification are identified as user based features, with media use and marking tweets as favorite to be the most dominant.Comment: 51 pages, 5 figure

    Analyzing the Digital Traces of Political Manipulation: The 2016 Russian Interference Twitter Campaign

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    Until recently, social media was seen to promote democratic discourse on social and political issues. However, this powerful communication platform has come under scrutiny for allowing hostile actors to exploit online discussions in an attempt to manipulate public opinion. A case in point is the ongoing U.S. Congress' investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election campaign, with Russia accused of using trolls (malicious accounts created to manipulate) and bots to spread misinformation and politically biased information. In this study, we explore the effects of this manipulation campaign, taking a closer look at users who re-shared the posts produced on Twitter by the Russian troll accounts publicly disclosed by U.S. Congress investigation. We collected a dataset with over 43 million election-related posts shared on Twitter between September 16 and October 21, 2016, by about 5.7 million distinct users. This dataset included accounts associated with the identified Russian trolls. We use label propagation to infer the ideology of all users based on the news sources they shared. This method enables us to classify a large number of users as liberal or conservative with precision and recall above 90%. Conservatives retweeted Russian trolls about 31 times more often than liberals and produced 36x more tweets. Additionally, most retweets of troll content originated from two Southern states: Tennessee and Texas. Using state-of-the-art bot detection techniques, we estimated that about 4.9% and 6.2% of liberal and conservative users respectively were bots. Text analysis on the content shared by trolls reveals that they had a mostly conservative, pro-Trump agenda. Although an ideologically broad swath of Twitter users was exposed to Russian Trolls in the period leading up to the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, it was mainly conservatives who helped amplify their message
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