Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Context Exploitation in Data Fusion

Complex and dynamic environments constitute a challenge for existing tracking algorithms. For this reason, modern solutions are trying to utilize any available information which could help to constrain, improve or explain the measurements. So called Context Information (CI) is understood as information that surrounds an element of interest, whose knowledge may help understanding the (estimated) situation and also in reacting to that situation. However, context discovery and exploitation are still largely unexplored research topics. Until now, the context has been extensively exploited as a parameter in system and measurement models which led to the development of numerous approaches for the linear or non-linear constrained estimation and target tracking. More specifically, the spatial or static context is the most common source of the ambient information, i.e. features, utilized for recursive enhancement of the state variables either in the prediction or the measurement update of the filters. In the case of multiple model estimators, context can not only be related to the state but also to a certain mode of the filter. Common practice for multiple model scenarios is to represent states and context as a joint distribution of Gaussian mixtures. These approaches are commonly referred as the join tracking and classification. Alternatively, the usefulness of context was also demonstrated in aiding the measurement data association. Process of formulating a hypothesis, which assigns a particular measurement to the track, is traditionally governed by the empirical knowledge of the noise characteristics of sensors and operating environment, i.e. probability of detection, false alarm, clutter noise, which can be further enhanced by conditioning on context. We believe that interactions between the environment and the object could be classified into actions, activities and intents, and formed into structured graphs with contextual links translated into arcs. By learning the environment model we will be able to make prediction on the target\u2019s future actions based on its past observation. Probability of target future action could be utilized in the fusion process to adjust tracker confidence on measurements. By incorporating contextual knowledge of the environment, in the form of a likelihood function, in the filter measurement update step, we have been able to reduce uncertainties of the tracking solution and improve the consistency of the track. The promising results demonstrate that the fusion of CI brings a significant performance improvement in comparison to the regular tracking approaches

Performance of Sensor Fusion for Vehicular Applications

Sensor fusion is a key system in Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, ADAS. The perfor-mance of the sensor fusion depends on many factors such as the sensors used, the kinematicmodel used in the Extended Kalman Filter, EKF, the motion of the vehicles, the type ofroad, the density of vehicles, and the gating methods. The interactions between parametersand the extent to which individual parameters contribute to the overall accuracy of a sensorfusion system can be difficult to assess.In this study, a full-factorial experimental evaluation of a sensor fusion system basedon a real vehicle was performed. The experimental results for different driving scenariosand parameters are discussed and the factors that make the most impact are identified.The performance of sensor fusion depends on many factors such as the sensors used, thekinematic model used in the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) motion of the vehicles, type ofroad, density of vehicles, and gating methods.This study identified that the distance between the vehicles has the largest impact on theestimation error because the vision sensor performs poorly with increased distance. In addi-tion, it was identified that the kinematic models had no significant impact on the estimation.Last but not least, the ellipsoid gates performed better than rectangular gates.In addition, we propose a new gating algorithm called an angular gate. This algorithmis based on the observation that the data for each target lies in the direction of that target.Therefore, the angle and the range can be used for setting up a two-level gating approachthat is both more intuitive and computationally faster than ellipsoid gates. The angulargates can achieve a speedup factor of up to 2.27 compared to ellipsoid gates.Furthermore, we provide time complexity analysis of angular gates, ellipsoid gates, andrectangular gates demonstrating the theoretical reasons why angular gates perform better.Last, we evaluated the performance of the Munkres algorithm using a full factorial designand identified that narrower gates can speedup the running time of the Munkres algorithmand, surprisingly, even improve the RMSE in some cases.The low target maneuvering index of vehicular systems was identified as the reason whythe kinematic models do not have an impact on the estimation. This finding supports the useof simpler and computationally inexpensive filters instead of complex Interacting MultipleModel filters. The angular gates also improve the computational efficiency of the overallsensor fusion system making them suitable for vehicular application as well as for embeddedsystems and robotics

Vehicle Tracking and Motion Estimation Based on Stereo Vision Sequences

In this dissertation, a novel approach for estimating trajectories of road vehicles such as cars, vans, or motorbikes, based on stereo image sequences is presented. Moving objects are detected and reliably tracked in real-time from within a moving car. The resulting information on the pose and motion state of other moving objects with respect to the own vehicle is an essential basis for future driver assistance and safety systems, e.g., for collision prediction. The focus of this contribution is on oncoming traffic, while most existing work in the literature addresses tracking the lead vehicle. The overall approach is generic and scalable to a variety of traffic scenes including inner city, country road, and highway scenarios. A considerable part of this thesis addresses oncoming traffic at urban intersections. The parameters to be estimated include the 3D position and orientation of an object relative to the ego-vehicle, as well as the object's shape, dimension, velocity, acceleration and the rotational velocity (yaw rate). The key idea is to derive these parameters from a set of tracked 3D points on the object's surface, which are registered to a time-consistent object coordinate system, by means of an extended Kalman filter. Combining the rigid 3D point cloud model with the dynamic model of a vehicle is one main contribution of this thesis. Vehicle tracking at intersections requires covering a wide range of different object dynamics, since vehicles can turn quickly. Three different approaches for tracking objects during highly dynamic turn maneuvers up to extreme maneuvers such as skidding are presented and compared. These approaches allow for an online adaptation of the filter parameter values, overcoming manual parameter tuning depending on the dynamics of the tracked object in the scene. This is the second main contribution. Further issues include the introduction of two initialization methods, a robust outlier handling, a probabilistic approach for assigning new points to a tracked object, as well as mid-level fusion of the vision-based approach with a radar sensor. The overall system is systematically evaluated both on simulated and real-world data. The experimental results show the proposed system is able to accurately estimate the object pose and motion parameters in a variety of challenging situations, including night scenes, quick turn maneuvers, and partial occlusions. The limits of the system are also carefully investigated.In dieser Dissertation wird ein Ansatz zur Trajektorienschätzung von Straßenfahrzeugen (PKW, Lieferwagen, Motorräder,...) anhand von Stereo-Bildfolgen vorgestellt. Bewegte Objekte werden in Echtzeit aus einem fahrenden Auto heraus automatisch detektiert, vermessen und deren Bewegungszustand relativ zum eigenen Fahrzeug zuverlässig bestimmt. Die gewonnenen Informationen liefern einen entscheidenden Grundstein für zukünftige Fahrerassistenz- und Sicherheitssysteme im Automobilbereich, beispielsweise zur Kollisionsprädiktion. Während der Großteil der existierenden Literatur das Detektieren und Verfolgen vorausfahrender Fahrzeuge in Autobahnszenarien adressiert, setzt diese Arbeit einen Schwerpunkt auf den Gegenverkehr, speziell an städtischen Kreuzungen. Der Ansatz ist jedoch grundsätzlich generisch und skalierbar für eine Vielzahl an Verkehrssituationen (Innenstadt, Landstraße, Autobahn). Die zu schätzenden Parameter beinhalten die räumliche Lage des anderen Fahrzeugs relativ zum eigenen Fahrzeug, die Objekt-Geschwindigkeit und -Längsbeschleunigung, sowie die Rotationsgeschwindigkeit (Gierrate) des beobachteten Objektes. Zusätzlich werden die Objektabmaße sowie die Objektform rekonstruiert. Die Grundidee ist es, diese Parameter anhand der Transformation von beobachteten 3D Punkten, welche eine ortsfeste Position auf der Objektoberfläche besitzen, mittels eines rekursiven Schätzers (Kalman Filter) zu bestimmen. Ein wesentlicher Beitrag dieser Arbeit liegt in der Kombination des Starrkörpermodells der Punktewolke mit einem Fahrzeugbewegungsmodell. An Kreuzungen können sehr unterschiedliche Dynamiken auftreten, von einer Geradeausfahrt mit konstanter Geschwindigkeit bis hin zum raschen Abbiegen. Um eine manuelle Parameteradaption abhängig von der jeweiligen Szene zu vermeiden, werden drei verschiedene Ansätze zur automatisierten Anpassung der Filterparameter an die vorliegende Situation vorgestellt und verglichen. Dies stellt den zweiten Hauptbeitrag der Arbeit dar. Weitere wichtige Beiträge sind zwei alternative Initialisierungsmethoden, eine robuste Ausreißerbehandlung, ein probabilistischer Ansatz zur Zuordnung neuer Objektpunkte, sowie die Fusion des bildbasierten Verfahrens mit einem Radar-Sensor. Das Gesamtsystem wird im Rahmen dieser Arbeit systematisch anhand von simulierten und realen Straßenverkehrsszenen evaluiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass das vorgestellte Verfahren in der Lage ist, die unbekannten Objektparameter auch unter schwierigen Umgebungsbedingungen, beispielsweise bei Nacht, schnellen Abbiegemanövern oder unter Teilverdeckungen, sehr präzise zu schätzen. Die Grenzen des Systems werden ebenfalls sorgfältig untersucht

A Comprehensive Mapping and Real-World Evaluation of Multi-Object Tracking on Automated Vehicles

Multi-Object Tracking (MOT) is a field critical to Automated Vehicle (AV) perception systems. However, it is large, complex, spans research fields, and lacks resources for integration with real sensors and implementation on AVs. Factors such those make it difficult for new researchers and practitioners to enter the field. This thesis presents two main contributions: 1) a comprehensive mapping for the field of Multi-Object Trackers (MOTs) with a specific focus towards Automated Vehicles (AVs) and 2) a real-world evaluation of an MOT developed and tuned using COTS (Commercial Off-The-Shelf) software toolsets. The first contribution aims to give a comprehensive overview of MOTs and various MOT subfields for AVs that have not been presented as wholistically in other papers. The second contribution aims to illustrate some of the benefits of using a COTS MOT toolset and some of the difficulties associated with using real-world data. This MOT performed accurate state estimation of a target vehicle through the tracking and fusion of data from a radar and vision sensor using a Central-Level Track Processing approach and a Global Nearest Neighbors assignment algorithm. It had an 0.44 m positional Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) over a 40 m approach test. It is the authors\u27 hope that this work provides an overview of the MOT field that will help new researchers and practitioners enter the field. Additionally, the author hopes that the evaluation section illustrates some difficulties of using real-world data and provides a good pathway for developing and deploying MOTs from software toolsets to Automated Vehicles

Overview of Environment Perception for Intelligent Vehicles

This paper presents a comprehensive literature review on environment perception for intelligent vehicles. The state-of-the-art algorithms and modeling methods for intelligent vehicles are given, with a summary of their pros and cons. A special attention is paid to methods for lane and road detection, traffic sign recognition, vehicle tracking, behavior analysis, and scene understanding. In addition, we provide information about datasets, common performance analysis, and perspectives on future research directions in this area