Analysis of information systems for hydropower operations

The operations of hydropower systems were analyzed with emphasis on water resource management, to determine how aerospace derived information system technologies can increase energy output. Better utilization of water resources was sought through improved reservoir inflow forecasting based on use of hydrometeorologic information systems with new or improved sensors, satellite data relay systems, and use of advanced scheduling techniques for water release. Specific mechanisms for increased energy output were determined, principally the use of more timely and accurate short term (0-7 days) inflow information to reduce spillage caused by unanticipated dynamic high inflow events. The hydrometeorologic models used in predicting inflows were examined to determine the sensitivity of inflow prediction accuracy to the many variables employed in the models, and the results used to establish information system requirements. Sensor and data handling system capabilities were reviewed and compared to the requirements, and an improved information system concept outlined

Assessing the accuracy of passive microwave estimates of snow water equivalent in data-scarce regions for use in water resource applications

Winter snowpack is a significant contributor to water supply in many regions of the world and accurate estimates of the snow water equivalent (SWE) are necessary for water resource planning. Satellite data is an attractive source of snow information in remote regions with limited ground data. The objective of this study is to assess passive microwave SWE in the Upper Helmand Watershed in Afghanistan where snowmelt is a primary source of water. Passive microwave SWE data were compared over 6 winter seasons, 2004-2009, to an independent estimate of SWE using a snow hydrology model. The snow hydrology model was calibrated to high-resolution snow covered area images and observed reservoir levels. The model was initialized with passive microwave SWE data and found to improve results in years when input precipitation was low. The results showed that passive microwave SWE has potential to provide valuable water resource information in this data-scarce region

Comparison of passive microwave and modeled estimates of total watershed SWE in the continental United States

In the U.S., a dedicated system of snow measurement stations and snowpack modeling products is available to estimate the snow water equivalent (SWE) throughout the winter season. In other regions of the world that depend on snowmelt for water resources, snow data can be scarce, and these regions are vulnerable to drought or flood conditions. Even in the U.S., water resource management is hampered by limited snow data in certain regions, as evident by the 2011 Missouri Basin flooding due in large part to the significant Plains snowpack. Satellite data could potentially provide important information in under‐sampled areas. This study compared the daily AMSR‐E and SSM/I SWE products over nine winter seasons to spatially distributed, modeled output SNODAS summed over 2100 watersheds in the conterminous U.S. Results show large areas where the passive microwave retrievals are highly correlated to the SNODAS data, particularly in the northern Great Plains and southern Rocky Mountain regions. However, the passive microwave SWE is significantly lower than SNODAS in heavily forested areas, and regions that typically receive a deep snowpack. The best correlations are associated with basins in which maximum annual SWE is less than 200 mm, and forest fraction is less than 20%. Even in many watersheds with poor correlations between the passive microwave data and SNODAS maximum annual SWE values, the overall pattern of accumulation and ablation did show good agreement and therefore may provide useful hydrologic information on melt timing and season length

PASSIVE MICROWAVE SATELLITE SNOW OBSERVATIONS FOR HYDROLOGIC APPLICATIONS

Melting snow provides an essential source of water in many regions of the world and can also contribute to devastating, wide-scale flooding. The objective of this research was to investigate the potential for passive microwave remotely sensed data to characterize snow water equivalent (SWE) and snowmelt across diverse regions and snow regimes to improve snowmelt runoff estimation. The first step was to evaluate the current, empirically-based passive microwave SWE products compared to NOAA’s operational SWE estimates from SNODAS across 2100 watersheds over eight years. The best agreement was found within basins in which maximum annual SWE is less than 200 mm, and forest fraction is less than 20%. Next, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the microwave signal response to spatially distributed wet snow using a loosely-coupled snow-emission model. The results over an area approximately the size of a microwave pixel found a near-linear relationship between the microwave signal response and the percent area with wet snow present. These results were confirmed by evaluating actual wet snow events over a nine year period, and suggest that the microwave response provides the potential basis for disaggregating melting snow within a microwave pixel. Finally, a similar sensitivity analysis conducted in six watersheds with diverse landscapes and snow conditions confirmed the relationship holds at a basin scale. The magnitude of the microwave response to wet snow was compared to the magnitude of subsequent discharge events to determine if an empirical relation exists. While positive increases in brightness temperature (TB) correspond to positive increases in discharge, the magnitude of those changes is poorly correlated in most basins. The exception is in basins where snowmelt runoff typically occurs in one event each spring. In similar basins, the microwave response may provide information on the magnitude of spring runoff. Methods to use these findings to improve current snow and snow melt estimation as well as future research direction are discussed

Hydrologic Scales, Cloud Variability, Remote Sensing, and Models: Implications for Forecasting Snowmelt and Streamflow

Accurate prediction of available water supply from snowmelt is needed if the myriad of human, environmental, agricultural, and industrial demands for water are to be satisfied, especially given legislatively imposed conditions on its allocation. Robust retrievals of hydrologic basin model variables (e.g., insolation or areal extent of snow cover) provide several advantages over the current operational use of either point measurements or parameter-izations to help to meet this requirement. Insolation can be provided at hourly time scales (or better if needed during rapid melt events associated with flooding) and at 1-km spatial resolution. These satellite-based retrievals incorporate the effects of highly variable (both in space and time) and unpredictable cloud cover on estimates of insolation. The insolation estimates are further adjusted for the effects of basin topography using a high-resolution digital elevation model prior to model input. Simulations of two Sierra Nevada rivers in the snowmelt seasons of 1998 and 1999 indicate that even the simplest improvements in modeled insolation can improve snowmelt simulations, with 10%–20 % reductions in root-mean-square errors. Direct retrieval of the areal extent of snow cover may mitigate the need to rely entirely on internal calculations of this variable, a reliance that can yield large errors that are difficult to correct until long after the season is complete and that often leads to persistent underestimates or overestimates of the volumes of the water to operational reservoirs. Agencie

Consistency in the AMSR-E snow products: groundwork for a coupled snowfall and SWE algorithm

2019 Fall.Includes bibliographical references.Snow is an important wintertime property because it is a source of freshwater, regulates land-atmosphere exchanges, and increases the surface albedo of snow-covered regions. Unfortunately, in-situ observations of both snowfall and snow water equivalent (SWE) are globally sparse and point measurements are not representative of the surrounding area, especially in mountainous regions. The total amount of land covered by snow, which is climatologically important, is fairly straightforward to measure using satellite remote sensing. The total SWE is hydrologically more useful, but significantly more difficult to measure. Accurately measuring snowfall and SWE is an important first step toward a better understanding of the impacts snow has for hydrological and climatological purposes. Satellite passive microwave retrievals of snow offer potential due to consistent overpasses and the capability to make measurements during the day, night, and cloudy conditions. However, passive microwave snow retrievals are less mature than precipitation retrievals and have been an ongoing area of research. Exacerbating the problem, communities that remotely sense snowfall and SWE from passive microwave sensors have historically operated independently while the accuracy of the products has suffered because of the physical and radiometric dependency between the two. In this study, we assessed the relationship between the Northern Hemisphere snowfall and SWE products from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System (AMSR-E). This assessment provides insight into regimes that can be used as a starting point for future improvements using coupled snowfall and SWE algorithm. SnowModel, a physically-based snow evolution modeling system driven by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, was employed to consistently compare snowfall and SWE by accounting for snow evolution. SnowModel has the ability to assimilate observed SWE values to scale the amount of snow that must have fallen to match the observed SWE. Assimilation was performed using AMSR-E, Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) Snow Analysis, and Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) SWE to infer the required snowfall for each dataset. Observed AMSR-E snowfall and SWE were then compared to the MERRA-2 snowfall and SnowModel-produced SWE as well as SNODAS and CMC inferred snowfall and observed SWE. Results from the study showed significantly different snowfall and SWE bias patterns observed by AMSR-E. Specifically, snowfall was underestimated nearly globally and SWE had pronounced regions of over and underestimation. Snowfall and SWE biases were found to differ as a function of surface temperature, snow class, and elevation

Snow Cover Monitoring from Remote-Sensing Satellites: Possibilities for Drought Assessment

Snow cover is an important earth surface characteristic because it influences partitioning of the surface radiation, energy, and hydrologic budgets. Snow is also an important source of moisture for agricultural crops and water supply in many higher latitude or mountainous areas. For instance, snowmelt provides approximately 50%–80% of the annual runoff in the western United States (Pagano and Garen, 2006) and Canadian Prairies (Gray et al., 1989; Fang and Pomeroy, 2007), which substantially impacts warm season hydrology. Limited soil moisture reserves from the winter period can result in agricultural drought (i.e., severe early growing season vegetation stress if rainfall deficits occur during that period), which can be prolonged or intensified well into the growing season if relatively dry conditions persist. Snow cover deficits can also result in hydrological drought (i.e., severe deficits in surface and subsurface water reserves including soil moisture, streamflow, reservoir and lake levels, and groundwater) since snowmelt runoff is the primary source of moisture to recharge these reserves for a wide range of agricultural, commercial, ecological, and municipal purposes. Semiarid regions that rely on snowmelt are especially vulnerable to winter moisture shortfalls since these areas are more likely to experience frequent droughts. In the Canadian Prairies, more than half the years of three decades (1910–1920, 1930–1939, and 1980–1989) were in drought. Wheaton et al. (2005) reported exceptionally low precipitation and low snow cover in the winter of 2000–2001, with the greatest anomalies of precipitation in Alberta and western Saskatchewan along with near-normal temperature in most of southern Canada. The reduced snowfall led to lower snow accumulation. A loss in agricultural production over Canada by an estimated $3.6 billion in 2001–2002 was attributed to this drought. Fang and Pomeroy (2008) analyzed the impacts of the most recent and severe drought of 1999/2004–2005 for part of the Canadian Prairies on the water supply of a wetland basin by using a physically based cold region hydrologic modeling system. Simulation results showed that much lower winter precipitation, less snow accumulation, and shorter snow cover duration were associated with much lower discharge from snowmelt runoff to the wetland area during much of the drought period of 1999/2004–2005 than during the nondrought period of 2005/2006

Snow Cover Monitoring from Remote-Sensing Satellites: Possibilities for Drought Assessment

Snow cover is an important earth surface characteristic because it influences partitioning of the surface radiation, energy, and hydrologic budgets. Snow is also an important source of moisture for agricultural crops and water supply in many higher latitude or mountainous areas. For instance, snowmelt provides approximately 50%–80% of the annual runoff in the western United States (Pagano and Garen, 2006) and Canadian Prairies (Gray et al., 1989; Fang and Pomeroy, 2007), which substantially impacts warm season hydrology. Limited soil moisture reserves from the winter period can result in agricultural drought (i.e., severe early growing season vegetation stress if rainfall deficits occur during that period), which can be prolonged or intensified well into the growing season if relatively dry conditions persist. Snow cover deficits can also result in hydrological drought (i.e., severe deficits in surface and subsurface water reserves including soil moisture, streamflow, reservoir and lake levels, and groundwater) since snowmelt runoff is the primary source of moisture to recharge these reserves for a wide range of agricultural, commercial, ecological, and municipal purposes. Semiarid regions that rely on snowmelt are especially vulnerable to winter moisture shortfalls since these areas are more likely to experience frequent droughts. In the Canadian Prairies, more than half the years of three decades (1910–1920, 1930–1939, and 1980–1989) were in drought. Wheaton et al. (2005) reported exceptionally low precipitation and low snow cover in the winter of 2000–2001, with the greatest anomalies of precipitation in Alberta and western Saskatchewan along with near-normal temperature in most of southern Canada. The reduced snowfall led to lower snow accumulation. A loss in agricultural production over Canada by an estimated $3.6 billion in 2001–2002 was attributed to this drought. Fang and Pomeroy (2008) analyzed the impacts of the most recent and severe drought of 1999/2004–2005 for part of the Canadian Prairies on the water supply of a wetland basin by using a physically based cold region hydrologic modeling system. Simulation results showed that much lower winter precipitation, less snow accumulation, and shorter snow cover duration were associated with much lower discharge from snowmelt runoff to the wetland area during much of the drought period of 1999/2004–2005 than during the nondrought period of 2005/2006

HUMAN AND CLIMATE IMPACTS ON FLOODING VIA REMOTE SENSING, BIG DATA ANALYTICS, AND MODELING

Over the last 20 years, the amount of streamflow has greatly increased and spring snowmelt floods have occurred more frequently in the north-central U.S. In the Red River of the North Basin (RRB) overlying portions of North Dakota and Minnesota, six of the 13 major floods over the past 100 years have occurred since the late 1990s. Based on numerous previous studies as well as senior flood forecasters’ experiences, recent hydrological changes related to human modifications [e.g. artificial subsurface drainage (SSD) expansion] and climate change are potential causes of notable forecasting failures over the past decade. My dissertation focuses on the operational and scientific gaps in current forecasting models and observational data and provides insights and value to both the practitioner and the research community. First, the current flood forecasting model needs both the location and installation timing of SSD and SSD physics. SSD maps were developed using satellite “big” data and a machine learning technique. Next, using the maps with a land surface model, the impacts of SSD expansion on regional hydrological changes were quantified. In combination with model physics, the inherent uncertainty in the airborne gamma snow survey observations hinders the accurate flood forecasting model. The operational airborne gamma snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements were improved by updating antecedent surface moisture conditions using satellite observations on soil moisture. From a long-term perspective, flood forecasters and state governments need knowledge of historical changes in snowpack and snowmelt to help flood management and to develop strategies to adapt to climate changes. However, historical snowmelt trends have not been quantified in the north-central U.S. due to the limited historical snow data. To overcome this, the current available historical long-term SWE products were evaluated across diverse regions and conditions. Using the most reliable SWE product, a trend analysis quantified the magnitude of change extreme snowpack and melt events over the past 36 years. Collectively, this body of research demonstrates that human and climate impacts, as well as limited and noisy data, cause uncertainties in flood prediction in the great plains, but integrated approaches using remote sensing, big data analytics, and modeling can quantify the hydrological changes and reduce the uncertainties. This dissertation improves the practice of flood forecasting in Red River of the North Basin and advances research in hydrology and snow science