Differentially Private Model Selection with Penalized and Constrained Likelihood

In statistical disclosure control, the goal of data analysis is twofold: The released information must provide accurate and useful statistics about the underlying population of interest, while minimizing the potential for an individual record to be identified. In recent years, the notion of differential privacy has received much attention in theoretical computer science, machine learning, and statistics. It provides a rigorous and strong notion of protection for individuals' sensitive information. A fundamental question is how to incorporate differential privacy into traditional statistical inference procedures. In this paper we study model selection in multivariate linear regression under the constraint of differential privacy. We show that model selection procedures based on penalized least squares or likelihood can be made differentially private by a combination of regularization and randomization, and propose two algorithms to do so. We show that our private procedures are consistent under essentially the same conditions as the corresponding non-private procedures. We also find that under differential privacy, the procedure becomes more sensitive to the tuning parameters. We illustrate and evaluate our method using simulation studies and two real data examples

Convex Relaxations and Approximations of Chance-Constrained AC-OPF Problems

This paper deals with the impact of linear approximations for the unknown nonconvex confidence region of chance-constrained AC optimal power flow problems. Such approximations are required for the formulation of tractable chance constraints. In this context, we introduce the first formulation of a chance-constrained second-order cone (SOC) OPF. The proposed formulation provides convergence guarantees due to its convexity, while it demonstrates high computational efficiency. Combined with an AC feasibility recovery, it is able to identify better solutions than chance-constrained nonconvex AC-OPF formulations. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to perform a rigorous analysis of the AC feasibility recovery procedures for robust SOC-OPF problems. We identify the issues that arise from the linear approximations, and by using a reformulation of the quadratic chance constraints, we introduce new parameters able to reshape the approximation of the confidence region. We demonstrate our method on the IEEE 118-bus system

Fast derivatives of likelihood functionals for ODE based models using adjoint-state method

We consider time series data modeled by ordinary differential equations (ODEs), widespread models in physics, chemistry, biology and science in general. The sensitivity analysis of such dynamical systems usually requires calculation of various derivatives with respect to the model parameters. We employ the adjoint state method (ASM) for efficient computation of the first and the second derivatives of likelihood functionals constrained by ODEs with respect to the parameters of the underlying ODE model. Essentially, the gradient can be computed with a cost (measured by model evaluations) that is independent of the number of the ODE model parameters and the Hessian with a linear cost in the number of the parameters instead of the quadratic one. The sensitivity analysis becomes feasible even if the parametric space is high-dimensional. The main contributions are derivation and rigorous analysis of the ASM in the statistical context, when the discrete data are coupled with the continuous ODE model. Further, we present a highly optimized implementation of the results and its benchmarks on a number of problems. The results are directly applicable in (e.g.) maximum-likelihood estimation or Bayesian sampling of ODE based statistical models, allowing for faster, more stable estimation of parameters of the underlying ODE model.Comment: 5 figure