ESTIMATING THE IMPACTS OF DIFFERING PRICE-RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES ON THE NET INCOME OF SALINAS VALLEY LETTUCE PRODUCERS: A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION APPROACH

While government safety-net programs are used to mitigate the price risk for commodity producers, limited programs exist for specialty crop producers. Specialty crop producers utilize forward contracts to reduce downside price risk. In order to estimate the method of price-risk management, if any, that is preferable to selling at market determined prices, a stochastic simulation model was constructed. The completed simulation model was used to estimate probability distributions for Salinas Valley net income under different pricing scenarios. Probabilities of reaching various net income thresholds were compared. Results indicate that Salinas Valley lettuce producers should maximize profitability by using forward contracts.Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty,

METODE ROLE PLAYING JUAL BELI TERHADAPKEMAMPUAN BERHITUNGPENGURANGAN PADA ANAK AUTIS SDLB

ABSTRACTAbatement numeracy skills of children with autism is different to normal children. But children can be trained sehinngga ability berhitungnya approaching normal children. From the observation researcher at the State SDLN Keleyan Bangkalan in fourth grade numeracy skills reductions child is lacking. Many factors affecting one of the only methods of teaching used by teachers in the learning process. Based on the results of arithmetic problems reduction mild Autism fourth grade students SDLB Keleyan Bangkalan State is still lacking. Therefore in this study apply simulation methods to win the sale and purchase these problems. In this study the formulation of the problem is determined "whether the method of buying and selling role playing effect on the reduction of numeracy skills in children with autism n the State SDLB Keleyan Bangkalan?". Medium purpose of this study to prove the influence of role playing method of buying and selling the numeracy skills of children with autism in a reduction in State SDLB Keleyan Bangkalan.This type of study presented using quantitative research with a pre-experimental research design "one group pre test post test design" To analyze it using non-parametric statistics.From the analysis we found the value obtained in a matter of Zh is 2,049 greater than the critical value ᾳ = 80% is 1.64 so the null hypothesis is rejected and the working hypothesis is accepted. This means that there is a significant effect of the application of the method uses role playing to the reduction of class IV numeracy State SDLB Keleyan Bangkalan.Keywords: reduction numeracy, selling simulation methods meracy, selling simulation method

Production Practices of Arkansas Beef Cattle Producers

This report contains information from a 1996 survey on production practices of Arkansas beef cattle producers. While several studies have been completed on the profitability of retained ownership of beef cattle, few empirical data are available on production practices of cow/calf and stocker operations in Arkansas. This report shows that there are some differences in production methods across operation types. Further, the report summarizes demographic characteristics of Arkansas cow/calf and stocker operations. The results of this study can be particularly helpful in providing the needed data for studying the potential economic impact of feeding weaned calves to heavier weights in Arkansas as a value-added production alternative to selling calves at weaning. It should also prove helpful in the formulation of budgets and simulation models

Estimating relationships in simulation models using regression: An application to military retirement costing

This article demonstrates a procedure for using regression analysis to develop estimating equations that simply and quickly predict the effects on system performance of changes in parametric values of complex interrelation- ships imbedded in a full mathematical simulation model. Though a analytic solution to the relationships may be possible, the time and other resources necessary to generate such a solution may exceed those available. The resulting estimating equations facilitate understanding of the system being simulated, enable users to more easily conduct sensitivity analysis and answer what-if questions, and assist the selling of the simulation results to potential users. The procedure includes criteria for selection of: variables to be analyzed, the sensitivity range, the value increments, and the functional form. The example utilized is a simulation model developed for estimating future military retirement costs. (Author)Prepared for: The Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (MRA&L), Washington DChttp://archive.org/details/estimatingrelati00euskFunding for this research was provided by the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Manpower, Installations, and Logistics).N

The Effect of a Buyer Agent’s Emotions on a Human Seller

This talk describes an experiment that develops an understanding of the interactions between humans and computer agents. Prior research on humans interactions with simulated computer emotions indicate a bias by humans on how they engage the computer in a negotiation when they know it’s a computer. When presented with the possibility that they are buying from a human, they exhibit different behaviours. This experiment examines reactions of people selling a product to a computer agent. The participants in this study are part of a selling and negotiation simulation where they are selling a car to the agent. Previous studies indicate that humans respond to the emotions of the computer agent as they would to an average human. That is, the seller concedes faster to an angry agent, and the results of this experiment agree with prior work. *Indicates faculty mento

Analysis and optimisation of a production line using discrete simulation

This study presents a simulation-based procedure to analyse a production line of a metalworking company. We use a simulation tool, ProModel R software, to reproduce the existing production line layout of the company best-selling product which represents about 70% of the total sales. Our purpose is to get information about the existing system behaviour, and to find strategies to increase actual production level to meet the market’s demand. Based on an initial simulation model, different production scenarios were proposed and results have shown that it is possible to increase the production level allowing to meet the increasing demand for the product. The following changes in the production system were considered: (i) the use of intermediate stock of work-in-process items, (ii) the introduction of new equipment, and (iii) a mixed strategy where the introduction of new equipment is combined with the use of intermediate stock of work-in-process items. In summary, this research exhibits the flexibility of the simulation technique to address manufacturing problems throughout the creation of different scenarios providing some of the behaviour of the systems allowing the anticipation of final outputs.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Social influence, negotiation and cognition

To understand how personal agreements can be generated within complexly differentiated social systems, we develop an agent-based computational model of negotiation in which social influence plays a key role in the attainment of social and cognitive integration. The model reflects a view of social influence that is predicated on the interactions among such factors as the agents' cognition, their abilities to initiate and maintain social behaviour, as well as the structural patterns of social relations in which influence unfolds. Findings from a set of computer simulations of the model show that the degree to which agents are influenced depends on the network of relations in which they are located, on the order in which interactions occur, and on the type of information that these interactions convey. We also find that a fundamental role in explaining influence is played by how inclined the agents are to be concilatory with each other, how accurate their beliefs are, and how self-confident they are in dealing with their social interactions. Moreover, the model provides insights into the trade-offs typically involved in the exercise of social influence