Assessment of different machine learning methods for reservoir outflow forecasting

Reservoirs play an important function in human society due to their ability to hold and regulate the flow. This will play a key role in the future decades due to climate change. Therefore, having reliable predictions of the outflow from a reservoir is necessary for early warning systems and adequate water management. In this sense, this study uses three approaches machine learning (ML)-based techniques—Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN)—to predict outflow one day ahead of eight different dams belonging to the Miño-Sil Hydrographic Confederation (Galicia, Spain), using three input variables of the current day. Mostly, the results obtained showed that the suggested models work correctly in predicting reservoir outflow in normal conditions. Among the different ML approaches analyzed, ANN was the most appropriate technique since it was the one that provided the best model in five reservoirs.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación | Ref. FPU2020/0614

Big data reduction framework for value creation in sustainable enterprises

Value creation is a major sustainability factor for enterprises, in addition to profit maximization and revenue generation. Modern enterprises collect big data from various inbound and outbound data sources. The inbound data sources handle data generated from the results of business operations, such as manufacturing, supply chain management, marketing, and human resource management, among others. Outbound data sources handle customer-generated data which are acquired directly or indirectly from customers, market analysis, surveys, product reviews, and transactional histories. However, cloud service utilization costs increase because of big data analytics and value creation activities for enterprises and customers. This article presents a novel concept of big data reduction at the customer end in which early data reduction operations are performed to achieve multiple objectives, such as a) lowering the service utilization cost, b) enhancing the trust between customers and enterprises, c) preserving privacy of customers, d) enabling secure data sharing, and e) delegating data sharing control to customers. We also propose a framework for early data reduction at customer end and present a business model for end-to-end data reduction in enterprise applications. The article further presents a business model canvas and maps the future application areas with its nine components. Finally, the article discusses the technology adoption challenges for value creation through big data reduction in enterprise applications

Three-dimensional hydrodynamic models coupled with GIS-based neuro-fuzzy classification for assessing environmental vulnerability of marine cage aquaculture

There is considerable opportunity to develop new modelling techniques within a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework for the development of sustainable marine cage culture. However, the spatial data sets are often uncertain and incomplete, therefore new spatial models employing “soft computing” methods such as fuzzy logic may be more suitable. The aim of this study is to develop a model using Neuro-fuzzy techniques in a 3D GIS (Arc View 3.2) to predict coastal environmental vulnerability for Atlantic salmon cage aquaculture. A 3D hydrodynamic model (3DMOHID) coupled to a particle-tracking model is applied to study the circulation patterns, dispersion processes and residence time in Mulroy Bay, Co. Donegal Ireland, an Irish fjard (shallow fjordic system), an area of restricted exchange, geometrically complicated with important aquaculture activities. The hydrodynamic model was calibrated and validated by comparison with sea surface and water flow measurements. The model provided spatial and temporal information on circulation, renewal time, helping to determine the influence of winds on circulation patterns and in particular the assessment of the hydrographic conditions with a strong influence on the management of fish cage culture. The particle-tracking model was used to study the transport and flushing processes. Instantaneous massive releases of particles from key boxes are modelled to analyse the ocean-fjord exchange characteristics and, by emulating discharge from finfish cages, to show the behaviour of waste in terms of water circulation and water exchange. In this study the results from the hydrodynamic model have been incorporated into GIS to provide an easy-to-use graphical user interface for 2D (maps), 3D and temporal visualization (animations), for interrogation of results. v Data on the physical environment and aquaculture suitability were derived from a 3- dimensional hydrodynamic model and GIS for incorporation into the final model framework and included mean and maximum current velocities, current flow quiescence time, water column stratification, sediment granulometry, particulate waste dispersion distance, oxygen depletion, water depth, coastal protection zones, and slope. The Neuro-fuzzy classification model NEFCLASS–J, was used to develop learning algorithms to create the structure (rule base) and the parameters (fuzzy sets) of a fuzzy classifier from a set of classified training data. A total of 42 training sites were sampled using stratified random sampling from the GIS raster data layers, and the vulnerability categories for each were manually classified into four categories based on the opinions of experts with field experience and specific knowledge of the environmental problems investigated. The final products, GIS/based Neuro Fuzzy maps were achieved by combining modeled and real environmental parameters relevant to marine fin fish Aquaculture. Environmental vulnerability models, based on Neuro-fuzzy techniques, showed sensitivity to the membership shapes of the fuzzy sets, the nature of the weightings applied to the model rules, and validation techniques used during the learning and validation process. The accuracy of the final classifier selected was R=85.71%, (estimated error value of ±16.5% from Cross Validation, N=10) with a Kappa coefficient of agreement of 81%. Unclassified cells in the whole spatial domain (of 1623 GIS cells) ranged from 0% to 24.18 %. A statistical comparison between vulnerability scores and a significant product of aquaculture waste (nitrogen concentrations in sediment under the salmon cages) showed that the final model gave a good correlation between predicted environmental vi vulnerability and sediment nitrogen levels, highlighting a number of areas with variable sensitivity to aquaculture. Further evaluation and analysis of the quality of the classification was achieved and the applicability of separability indexes was also studied. The inter-class separability estimations were performed on two different training data sets to assess the difficulty of the class separation problem under investigation. The Neuro-fuzzy classifier for a supervised and hard classification of coastal environmental vulnerability has demonstrated an ability to derive an accurate and reliable classification into areas of different levels of environmental vulnerability using a minimal number of training sets. The output will be an environmental spatial model for application in coastal areas intended to facilitate policy decision and to allow input into wider ranging spatial modelling projects, such as coastal zone management systems and effective environmental management of fish cage aquaculture

A Framework For Assessing Water Quality, Prioritizing Recovery Potential, And Analyzing Placement Of Best Management Practices

Motivated by the U.S. EPA goals, this research developed a framework to support identification and restoration of nutrient-impaired water bodies. The study objectives were developing total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) prediction models, evaluating the impact of social indicators on assessing recovery potential, and developing a spatial decision support system for choice and placement of best management practices (BMPS). An artificial neural network was used to develop TN and TP predictive regional models for U.S. lakes using easily measurable and cost-effective variables. The performance of models was superior for regions trained with larger datasets and/or regions with lower temperature and precipitation variability. The use of datasets larger than existing records and obtained from homogeneous climatic region was suggested to achieve the desired performance. The impact of social indicators on assessing a recovery potential was studied by comparing four watersheds using ecological, stressor, and social indicators. Social indicators were grouped into socio-economic, organizational, and information and planning subcategories. The existing U.S. EPA recovery potential screening tool prioritizes restoration for a water body with the most favorable ecological and social condition as well as the least stressing factors. In the present study, water bodies ranked lowest were observed with lower social scores associated with lower socio-economic conditions. This could mean a manager would take a water body with lower socio-economic condition as the lowest priority for restoration. It is suggested that such prioritization plan should carefully incorporate community goals in a prioritization effort because restoration supports an improvement of quality of life. A spatial decision support system was developed with the necessary information to assess nitrogen (n) pollution and methods to estimate an annual exported n load into Beasley Lake, Mississippi. A decision analysis of choice and placement of BMPS was performed based on performance, site suitability, and establishment cost criteria. From this analysis, a BMP scenario that reduces 25% of the exported load at an establishment and an annual opportunity cost-to-performance ratios of 148 $/kg and 29$/kg, respectively, was developed. The presented approach supports similar efforts when the use of existing watershed models is limited by data availability

Pole -mounted sonar vibration prediction using CMAC neural networks

The efficiency and accuracy of pole-mounted sonar systems are severely affected by pole vibration, Traditional signal processing techniques are not appropriate for the pole vibration problem due to the nonlinearity of the pole vibration and the lack of a priori knowledge about the statistics of the data to be processed. A novel approach of predicting the pole-mounted sonar vibration using CMAC neural networks is presented. The feasibility of this approach is studied in theory, evaluated by simulation and verified with a real-time laboratory prototype, Analytical bounds of the learning rate of a CMAC neural network are derived which guarantee convergence of the weight vector in the mean. Both simulation and experimental results indicate the CMAC neural network is an effective tool for this vibration prediction problem

Sustainable Smart Cities and Smart Villages Research

ca. 200 words; this text will present the book in all promotional forms (e.g. flyers). Please describe the book in straightforward and consumer-friendly terms. [There is ever more research on smart cities and new interdisciplinary approaches proposed on the study of smart cities. At the same time, problems pertinent to communities inhabiting rural areas are being addressed, as part of discussions in contigious fields of research, be it environmental studies, sociology, or agriculture. Even if rural areas and countryside communities have previously been a subject of concern for robust policy frameworks, such as the European Union’s Cohesion Policy and Common Agricultural Policy Arguably, the concept of ‘the village’ has been largely absent in the debate. As a result, when advances in sophisticated information and communication technology (ICT) led to the emergence of a rich body of research on smart cities, the application and usability of ICT in the context of a village has remained underdiscussed in the literature. Against this backdrop, this volume delivers on four objectives. It delineates the conceptual boundaries of the concept of ‘smart village’. It highlights in which ways ‘smart village’ is distinct from ‘smart city’. It examines in which ways smart cities research can enrich smart villages research. It sheds light on the smart village research agenda as it unfolds in European and global contexts.

Remote Sensing Applications in Coastal Environment

Coastal regions are susceptible to rapid changes, as they constitute the boundary between the land and the sea. The resilience of a particular segment of coast depends on many factors, including climate change, sea-level changes, natural and technological hazards, extraction of natural resources, population growth, and tourism. Recent research highlights the strong capabilities for remote sensing applications to monitor, inventory, and analyze the coastal environment. This book contains 12 high-quality and innovative scientific papers that explore, evaluate, and implement the use of remote sensing sensors within both natural and built coastal environments

An agent-based approach to model farmers' land use cover change intentions

Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) occurs as a consequence of both natural and human activities, causing impacts on biophysical and agricultural resources. In enlarged urban regions, the major changes are those that occur from agriculture to urban uses. Urban uses compete with rural ones due among others, to population growth and housing demand. This competition and the rapid nature of change can lead to fragmented and scattered land use development generating new challenges, for example, concerning food security, soil and biodiversity preservation, among others. Landowners play a key role in LUCC. In peri-urban contexts, three interrelated key actors are pre-eminent in LUCC complex process: 1) investors or developers, who are waiting to take advantage of urban development to obtain the highest profit margin. They rely on population growth, housing demand and spatial planning strategies; 2) farmers, who are affected by urban development and intend to capitalise on their investment, or farmers who own property for amenity and lifestyle values; 3) and at a broader scale, land use planners/ decision-makers. Farmers’ participation in the real estate market as buyers, sellers or developers and in the land renting market has major implications for LUCC because they have the capacity for financial investment and to control future agricultural land use. Several studies have analysed farmer decision-making processes in peri-urban regions. These studies identified agricultural areas as the most vulnerable to changes, and where farmers are presented with the choice of maintaining their agricultural activities and maximising the production potential of their crops or selling their farmland to land investors. Also, some evaluate the behavioural response of peri-urban farmers to urban development, and income from agricultural production, agritourism, and off-farm employment. Uncertainty about future land profits is a major motivator for decisions to transform farmland into urban development. Thus, LUCC occurs when the value of expected urban development rents exceeds the value of agricultural ones. Some studies have considered two main approaches in analysing farmer decisions: how drivers influence farmer’s decisions; and how their decisions influence LUCC. To analyse farmers’ decisions is to acknowledge the present and future trends and their potential spatial impacts. Simulation models, using cellular automata (CA), artificial neural networks (ANN) or agent-based systems (ABM) are commonly used. This PhD research aims to propose a model to understand the agricultural land-use change in a peri-urban context. We seek to understand how human drivers (e.g., demographic, economic, planning) and biophysical drivers can affect farmer’s intentions regarding the future agricultural land and model those intentions. This study presents an exploratory analysis aimed at understanding the complex dynamics of LUCC based on farmers’ intentions when they are faced with four scenarios with the time horizon of 2025: the A0 scenario – based on current demographic, social and economic trends and investigating what happens if conditions are maintained (BAU); the A1 scenario – based on a regional food security; the A2 scenario – based on climate change; and the B0 scenario – based on farming under urban pressure, and investigating what happens if people start to move to rural areas. These scenarios were selected because of the early urbanisation of the study area, as a consequence of economic, social and demographic development; and because of the interest in preserving and maintaining agriculture as an essential resource. Also, Torres Vedras represents one of the leading suppliers of agricultural goods (mainly fresh fruits, vegetables, and wine) in Portugal. To model LUCC a CA-Markov, an ANN-multilayer perceptron, and an ABM approach were applied. Our results suggest that significant LUCC will occur depending on farmers’ intentions in different scenarios. The highlights are: (1) the highest growth in permanently irrigated land in the A1 scenario; (2) the most significant drop in non-irrigated arable land, and the highest growth in the forest and semi-natural areas in the A2 scenario; and (3) the greatest urban growth was recognised in the B0 scenario. To verify if the fitting simulations performed well, statistical analysis to measure agreement and quantity-allocation disagreements and a participatory workshop with local stakeholders to validate the achieved results were applied. These outcomes could provide decision-makers with the capacity to observe different possible futures in ‘what if’ scenarios, allowing them to anticipate future uncertainties, and consequently allowing them the possibility to choose the more desirable future

Internet of Underwater Things and Big Marine Data Analytics -- A Comprehensive Survey

The Internet of Underwater Things (IoUT) is an emerging communication ecosystem developed for connecting underwater objects in maritime and underwater environments. The IoUT technology is intricately linked with intelligent boats and ships, smart shores and oceans, automatic marine transportations, positioning and navigation, underwater exploration, disaster prediction and prevention, as well as with intelligent monitoring and security. The IoUT has an influence at various scales ranging from a small scientific observatory, to a midsized harbor, and to covering global oceanic trade. The network architecture of IoUT is intrinsically heterogeneous and should be sufficiently resilient to operate in harsh environments. This creates major challenges in terms of underwater communications, whilst relying on limited energy resources. Additionally, the volume, velocity, and variety of data produced by sensors, hydrophones, and cameras in IoUT is enormous, giving rise to the concept of Big Marine Data (BMD), which has its own processing challenges. Hence, conventional data processing techniques will falter, and bespoke Machine Learning (ML) solutions have to be employed for automatically learning the specific BMD behavior and features facilitating knowledge extraction and decision support. The motivation of this paper is to comprehensively survey the IoUT, BMD, and their synthesis. It also aims for exploring the nexus of BMD with ML. We set out from underwater data collection and then discuss the family of IoUT data communication techniques with an emphasis on the state-of-the-art research challenges. We then review the suite of ML solutions suitable for BMD handling and analytics. We treat the subject deductively from an educational perspective, critically appraising the material surveyed.Comment: 54 pages, 11 figures, 19 tables, IEEE Communications Surveys & Tutorials, peer-reviewed academic journa