Mercury: using the QuPreSS reference model to evaluate predictive services

Nowadays, lots of service providers offer predictive services that show in advance a condition or occurrence about the future. As a consequence, it becomes necessary for service customers to select the predictive service that best satisfies their needs. The QuPreSS reference model provides a standard solution for the selection of predictive services based on the quality of their predictions. QuPreSS has been designed to be applicable in any predictive domain (e.g., weather forecasting, economics, and medicine). This paper presents Mercury, a tool based on the QuPreSS reference model and customized to the weather forecast domain. Mercury measures weather predictive services' quality, and automates the context-dependent selection of the most accurate predictive service to satisfy a customer query. To do so, candidate predictive services are monitored so that their predictions can be eventually compared to real observations obtained from a trusted source. Mercury is a proof-of-concept of QuPreSS that aims to show that the selection of predictive services can be driven by the quality of their predictions. Throughout the paper, we show how Mercury was built from the QuPreSS reference model and how it can be installed and used.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Review and Comparison of Intelligent Optimization Modelling Techniques for Energy Forecasting and Condition-Based Maintenance in PV Plants

Within the field of soft computing, intelligent optimization modelling techniques include various major techniques in artificial intelligence. These techniques pretend to generate new business knowledge transforming sets of "raw data" into business value. One of the principal applications of these techniques is related to the design of predictive analytics for the improvement of advanced CBM (condition-based maintenance) strategies and energy production forecasting. These advanced techniques can be used to transform control system data, operational data and maintenance event data to failure diagnostic and prognostic knowledge and, ultimately, to derive expected energy generation. One of the systems where these techniques can be applied with massive potential impact are the legacy monitoring systems existing in solar PV energy generation plants. These systems produce a great amount of data over time, while at the same time they demand an important e ort in order to increase their performance through the use of more accurate predictive analytics to reduce production losses having a direct impact on ROI. How to choose the most suitable techniques to apply is one of the problems to address. This paper presents a review and a comparative analysis of six intelligent optimization modelling techniques, which have been applied on a PV plant case study, using the energy production forecast as the decision variable. The methodology proposed not only pretends to elicit the most accurate solution but also validates the results, in comparison with the di erent outputs for the di erent techniques

Identifying smart design attributes for Industry 4.0 customization using a clustering Genetic Algorithm

Industry 4.0 aims at achieving mass customization at a mass production cost. A key component to realizing this is accurate prediction of customer needs and wants, which is however a challenging issue due to the lack of smart analytics tools. This paper investigates this issue in depth and then develops a predictive analytic framework for integrating cloud computing, big data analysis, business informatics, communication technologies, and digital industrial production systems. Computational intelligence in the form of a cluster k-means approach is used to manage relevant big data for feeding potential customer needs and wants to smart designs for targeted productivity and customized mass production. The identification of patterns from big data is achieved with cluster k-means and with the selection of optimal attributes using genetic algorithms. A car customization case study shows how it may be applied and where to assign new clusters with growing knowledge of customer needs and wants. This approach offer a number of features suitable to smart design in realizing Industry 4.0

Big Data and the Internet of Things

Advances in sensing and computing capabilities are making it possible to embed increasing computing power in small devices. This has enabled the sensing devices not just to passively capture data at very high resolution but also to take sophisticated actions in response. Combined with advances in communication, this is resulting in an ecosystem of highly interconnected devices referred to as the Internet of Things - IoT. In conjunction, the advances in machine learning have allowed building models on this ever increasing amounts of data. Consequently, devices all the way from heavy assets such as aircraft engines to wearables such as health monitors can all now not only generate massive amounts of data but can draw back on aggregate analytics to "improve" their performance over time. Big data analytics has been identified as a key enabler for the IoT. In this chapter, we discuss various avenues of the IoT where big data analytics either is already making a significant impact or is on the cusp of doing so. We also discuss social implications and areas of concern.Comment: 33 pages. draft of upcoming book chapter in Japkowicz and Stefanowski (eds.) Big Data Analysis: New algorithms for a new society, Springer Series on Studies in Big Data, to appea

Autonomous supervision and optimization of product quality in a multi-stage manufacturing process based on self-adaptive prediction models.

In modern manufacturing facilities, there are basically two essential phases for assuring high production quality with low (or even zero) defects and waste in order to save costs for companies. The first phase concerns the early recognition of potentially arising problems in product quality, the second phase concerns proper reactions upon the recognition of such problems. In this paper, we address a holistic approach for handling both issues consecutively within a predictive maintenance framework at an on-line production system. Thereby, we address multi-stage functionality based on (i) data-driven forecast models for (measure-able) product quality criteria (QCs) at a latter stage, which are established and executed through process values (and their time series trends) recorded at an early stage of production (describing its progress), and (ii) process optimization cycles whose outputs are suggestions for proper reactions at an earlier stage in the case of forecasted downtrends or exceeds of allowed boundaries in product quality. The data-driven forecast models are established through a high-dimensional batch time-series modeling problem. In this, we employ a non-linear version of PLSR (partial least squares regression) by coupling PLS with generalized Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy systems (termed as PLS-fuzzy). The models are able to self-adapt over time based on recursive parameters adaptation and rule evolution functionalities. Two concepts for increased flexibility during model updates are proposed, (i) a dynamic outweighing strategy of older samples with an adaptive update of the forgetting factor (steering forgetting intensity) and (ii) an incremental update of the latent variable space spanned by the directions (loading vectors) achieved through PLS; the whole model update approach is termed as SAFM-IF (self-adaptive forecast models with increased flexibility). Process optimization is achieved through multi-objective optimization using evolutionary techniques, where the (trained and updated) forecast models serve as surrogate models to guide the optimization process to Pareto fronts (containing solution candidates) with high quality. A new influence analysis between process values and QCs is suggested based on the PLS-fuzzy forecast models in order to reduce the dimensionality of the optimization space and thus to guarantee high(er) quality of solutions within a reasonable amount of time (→ better usage in on-line mode). The methodologies have been comprehensively evaluated on real on-line process data from a (micro-fluidic) chip production system, where the early stage comprises the injection molding process and the latter stage the bonding process. The results show remarkable performance in terms of low prediction errors of the PLS-fuzzy forecast models (showing mostly lower errors than achieved by other model architectures) as well as in terms of Pareto fronts with individuals (solutions) whose fitness was close to the optimal values of three most important target QCs (being used for supervision): flatness, void events and RMSEs of the chips. Suggestions could thus be provided to experts/operators how to best change process values and associated machining parameters at the injection molding process in order to achieve significantly higher product quality for the final chips at the end of the bonding process

A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration

Building energy consumption prediction plays an irreplaceable role in energy planning, management, and conservation. Constantly improving the performance of prediction models is the key to ensuring the efficient operation of energy systems. Moreover, accuracy is no longer the only factor in revealing model performance, it is more important to evaluate the model from multiple perspectives, considering the characteristics of engineering applications. Based on the idea of model integration, this paper proposes a novel improved integration model (stacking model) that can be used to forecast building energy consumption. The stacking model combines advantages of various base prediction algorithms and forms them into “meta-features” to ensure that the final model can observe datasets from different spatial and structural angles. Two cases are used to demonstrate practical engineering applications of the stacking model. A comparative analysis is performed to evaluate the prediction performance of the stacking model in contrast with existing well-known prediction models including Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbor. The results indicate that the stacking method achieves better performance than other models, regarding accuracy (improvement of 9.5%–31.6% for Case A and 16.2%–49.4% for Case B), generalization (improvement of 6.7%–29.5% for Case A and 7.1%-34.6% for Case B), and robustness (improvement of 1.5%–34.1% for Case A and 1.8%–19.3% for Case B). The proposed model enriches the diversity of algorithm libraries of empirical models