Hysteresis and unemployment : a preliminary investigation

This paper points out what hysteresis is using a simple model of market entry and exit. A procedure for calculating hysteresis indices for economic time series is outlined. Some preliminary results are presented to assess the explanatory power of hysteresis variables with regard to the equilibrium rate of unemployment in the UK. We find that both natural and "unnatural" variables enter a cointegrating vector for UK unemployment 1959-1996. The natural variable is the replacement ratio. The 'unnatural' variables are the hysteresis index of the exchange rate; and hysteresis indices for the real oil price and the real interest rate

Endothelin-1 Predicts Hemodynamically Assessed Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension in HIV Infection.

BackgroundHIV infection is an independent risk factor for PAH, but the underlying pathogenesis remains unclear. ET-1 is a robust vasoconstrictor and key mediator of pulmonary vascular homeostasis. Higher levels of ET-1 predict disease severity and mortality in other forms of PAH, and endothelin receptor antagonists are central to treatment, including in HIV-associated PAH. The direct relationship between ET-1 and PAH in HIV-infected individuals is not well described.MethodsWe measured ET-1 and estimated pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) with transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) in 106 HIV-infected individuals. Participants with a PASP ≥ 30 mmHg (n = 65) underwent right heart catheterization (RHC) to definitively diagnose PAH. We conducted multivariable analysis to identify factors associated with PAH.ResultsAmong 106 HIV-infected participants, 80% were male, the median age was 52 years and 77% were on antiretroviral therapy. ET-1 was significantly associated with higher values of PASP [14% per 0.1 pg/mL increase in ET-1, p = 0.05] and PASP ≥ 30 mmHg [PR (prevalence ratio) = 1.24, p = 0.012] on TTE after multivariable adjustment for PAH risk factors. Similarly, among the 65 individuals who underwent RHC, ET-1 was significantly associated with higher values of mean pulmonary artery pressure and PAH (34%, p = 0.003 and PR = 2.43, p = 0.032, respectively) in the multivariable analyses.ConclusionsHigher levels of ET-1 are independently associated with HIV-associated PAH as hemodynamically assessed by RHC. Our findings suggest that excessive ET-1 production in the setting of HIV infection impairs pulmonary endothelial function and contributes to the development of PAH

A Predictive Model for Convective Flows Induced by Surface Reactivity Contrast

Concentration gradients in a fluid along a reactive surface due to contrast in surface reactivity generate convective flows. These flows result from contributions by electro and diffusio osmotic phenomena. In this study we have analyzed reactive patterns that release and consume protons, analogous to bimetallic catalytic conversion of peroxide. Here, we present a simple analytical model that accurately predicts the induced potentials and consequent velocities in such systems over a wide range of input parameters. Our model is tested against direct numerical solutions to the coupled Poisson, Nernst-Planck, and Navier-Stokes equations. Our analysis can be used to predict enhancement of mass transport and the resulting impact on overall catalytic conversion, and is also applicable to predicting the speed of catalytic nanomotors

A tug-of-war between driver and passenger mutations in cancer and other adaptive processes

Cancer progression is an example of a rapid adaptive process where evolving new traits is essential for survival and requires a high mutation rate. Precancerous cells acquire a few key mutations that drive rapid population growth and carcinogenesis. Cancer genomics demonstrates that these few 'driver' mutations occur alongside thousands of random 'passenger' mutations-a natural consequence of cancer's elevated mutation rate. Some passengers can be deleterious to cancer cells, yet have been largely ignored in cancer research. In population genetics, however, the accumulation of mildly deleterious mutations has been shown to cause population meltdown. Here we develop a stochastic population model where beneficial drivers engage in a tug-of-war with frequent mildly deleterious passengers. These passengers present a barrier to cancer progression that is described by a critical population size, below which most lesions fail to progress, and a critical mutation rate, above which cancers meltdown. We find support for the model in cancer age-incidence and cancer genomics data that also allow us to estimate the fitness advantage of drivers and fitness costs of passengers. We identify two regimes of adaptive evolutionary dynamics and use these regimes to rationalize successes and failures of different treatment strategies. We find that a tumor's load of deleterious passengers can explain previously paradoxical treatment outcomes and suggest that it could potentially serve as a biomarker of response to mutagenic therapies. Collective deleterious effect of passengers is currently an unexploited therapeutic target. We discuss how their effects might be exacerbated by both current and future therapies

Adaptation and Selective Information Transmission in the Cricket Auditory Neuron AN2

Sensory systems adapt their neural code to changes in the sensory environment, often on multiple time scales. Here, we report a new form of adaptation in a first-order auditory interneuron (AN2) of crickets. We characterize the response of the AN2 neuron to amplitude-modulated sound stimuli and find that adaptation shifts the stimulus–response curves toward higher stimulus intensities, with a time constant of 1.5 s for adaptation and recovery. The spike responses were thus reduced for low-intensity sounds. We then address the question whether adaptation leads to an improvement of the signal's representation and compare the experimental results with the predictions of two competing hypotheses: infomax, which predicts that information conveyed about the entire signal range should be maximized, and selective coding, which predicts that “foreground” signals should be enhanced while “background” signals should be selectively suppressed. We test how adaptation changes the input–response curve when presenting signals with two or three peaks in their amplitude distributions, for which selective coding and infomax predict conflicting changes. By means of Bayesian data analysis, we quantify the shifts of the measured response curves and also find a slight reduction of their slopes. These decreases in slopes are smaller, and the absolute response thresholds are higher than those predicted by infomax. Most remarkably, and in contrast to the infomax principle, adaptation actually reduces the amount of encoded information when considering the whole range of input signals. The response curve changes are also not consistent with the selective coding hypothesis, because the amount of information conveyed about the loudest part of the signal does not increase as predicted but remains nearly constant. Less information is transmitted about signals with lower intensity