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Application of temporal streamflow descriptors in hydrologic model parameter estimation
This paper presents a parameter estimation approach based on hydrograph descriptors that capture dominant streamflow characteristics at three timescales (monthly, yearly, and record extent). The scheme, entitled hydrograph descriptors multitemporal sensitivity analyses (HYDMUS), yields an ensemble of model simulations generated from a reduced parameter space, based on a set of streamflow descriptors that emphasize the timescale dynamics of streamflow record. In this procedure the posterior distributions of model parameters derived at coarser timescales are used to sample model parameters for the next finer timescale. The procedure was used to estimate the parameters of the Sacramento soil moisture accounting model (SAC-SMA) for the Leaf River, Mississippi. The results indicated that in addition to a significant reduction in the range of parameter uncertainty, HYDMUS improved parameter identifiability for all 13 of the model parameters. The performance of the procedure was compared to four previous calibration studies on the same watershed. Although our application of HYDMUS did not explicitly consider the error at each simulation time step during the calibration process, the model performance was, in some important respects, found to be better than in previous deterministic studies. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union
Learning the dynamics and time-recursive boundary detection of deformable objects
We propose a principled framework for recursively segmenting deformable objects across a sequence
of frames. We demonstrate the usefulness of this method on left ventricular segmentation across a cardiac
cycle. The approach involves a technique for learning the system dynamics together with methods of
particle-based smoothing as well as non-parametric belief propagation on a loopy graphical model capturing
the temporal periodicity of the heart. The dynamic system state is a low-dimensional representation
of the boundary, and the boundary estimation involves incorporating curve evolution into recursive state
estimation. By formulating the problem as one of state estimation, the segmentation at each particular
time is based not only on the data observed at that instant, but also on predictions based on past and future
boundary estimates. Although the paper focuses on left ventricle segmentation, the method generalizes
to temporally segmenting any deformable object
Single camera pose estimation using Bayesian filtering and Kinect motion priors
Traditional approaches to upper body pose estimation using monocular vision
rely on complex body models and a large variety of geometric constraints. We
argue that this is not ideal and somewhat inelegant as it results in large
processing burdens, and instead attempt to incorporate these constraints
through priors obtained directly from training data. A prior distribution
covering the probability of a human pose occurring is used to incorporate
likely human poses. This distribution is obtained offline, by fitting a
Gaussian mixture model to a large dataset of recorded human body poses, tracked
using a Kinect sensor. We combine this prior information with a random walk
transition model to obtain an upper body model, suitable for use within a
recursive Bayesian filtering framework. Our model can be viewed as a mixture of
discrete Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, in that states behave as random walks,
but drift towards a set of typically observed poses. This model is combined
with measurements of the human head and hand positions, using recursive
Bayesian estimation to incorporate temporal information. Measurements are
obtained using face detection and a simple skin colour hand detector, trained
using the detected face. The suggested model is designed with analytical
tractability in mind and we show that the pose tracking can be
Rao-Blackwellised using the mixture Kalman filter, allowing for computational
efficiency while still incorporating bio-mechanical properties of the upper
body. In addition, the use of the proposed upper body model allows reliable
three-dimensional pose estimates to be obtained indirectly for a number of
joints that are often difficult to detect using traditional object recognition
strategies. Comparisons with Kinect sensor results and the state of the art in
2D pose estimation highlight the efficacy of the proposed approach.Comment: 25 pages, Technical report, related to Burke and Lasenby, AMDO 2014
conference paper. Code sample: https://github.com/mgb45/SignerBodyPose Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJMTSo7-uF
Convergence of adaptive mixtures of importance sampling schemes
In the design of efficient simulation algorithms, one is often beset with a
poor choice of proposal distributions. Although the performance of a given
simulation kernel can clarify a posteriori how adequate this kernel is for the
problem at hand, a permanent on-line modification of kernels causes concerns
about the validity of the resulting algorithm. While the issue is most often
intractable for MCMC algorithms, the equivalent version for importance sampling
algorithms can be validated quite precisely. We derive sufficient convergence
conditions for adaptive mixtures of population Monte Carlo algorithms and show
that Rao--Blackwellized versions asymptotically achieve an optimum in terms of
a Kullback divergence criterion, while more rudimentary versions do not benefit
from repeated updating.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053606000001154 in the
Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
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