Analysis of Decision Support Systems of Industrial Relevance: Application Potential of Fuzzy and Grey Set Theories

The present work articulates few case empirical studies on decision making in industrial context. Development of variety of Decision Support System (DSS) under uncertainty and vague information is attempted herein. The study emphases on five important decision making domains where effective decision making may surely enhance overall performance of the organization. The focused territories of this work are i) robot selection, ii) g-resilient supplier selection, iii) third party logistics (3PL) service provider selection, iv) assessment of supply chain’s g-resilient index and v) risk assessment in e-commerce exercises. Firstly, decision support systems in relation to robot selection are conceptualized through adaptation to fuzzy set theory in integration with TODIM and PROMETHEE approach, Grey set theory is also found useful in this regard; and is combined with TODIM approach to identify the best robot alternative. In this work, an attempt is also made to tackle subjective (qualitative) and objective (quantitative) evaluation information simultaneously, towards effective decision making. Supplier selection is a key strategic concern for the large-scale organizations. In view of this, a novel decision support framework is proposed to address g-resilient (green and resilient) supplier selection issues. Green capability of suppliers’ ensures the pollution free operation; while, resiliency deals with unexpected system disruptions. A comparative analysis of the results is also carried out by applying well-known decision making approaches like Fuzzy- TOPSIS and Fuzzy-VIKOR. In relation to 3PL service provider selection, this dissertation proposes a novel ‘Dominance- Based’ model in combination with grey set theory to deal with 3PL provider selection, considering linguistic preferences of the Decision-Makers (DMs). An empirical case study is articulated to demonstrate application potential of the proposed model. The results, obtained thereof, have been compared to that of grey-TOPSIS approach. Another part of this dissertation is to provide an integrated framework in order to assess gresilient (ecosilient) performance of the supply chain of a case automotive company. The overall g-resilient supply chain performance is determined by computing a unique ecosilient (g-resilient) index. The concepts of Fuzzy Performance Importance Index (FPII) along with Degree of Similarity (DOS) (obtained from fuzzy set theory) are applied to rank different gresilient criteria in accordance to their current status of performance. The study is further extended to analyze, and thereby, to mitigate various risk factors (risk sources) involved in e-commerce exercises. A total forty eight major e-commerce risks are recognized and evaluated in a decision making perspective by utilizing the knowledge acquired from the fuzzy set theory. Risk is evaluated as a product of two risk quantifying parameters viz. (i) Likelihood of occurrence and, (ii) Impact. Aforesaid two risk quantifying parameters are assessed in a subjective manner (linguistic human judgment), rather than exploring probabilistic approach of risk analysis. The ‘crisp risk extent’ corresponding to various risk factors are figured out through the proposed fuzzy risk analysis approach. The risk factor possessing high ‘crisp risk extent’ score is said be more critical for the current problem context (toward e-commerce success). Risks are now categorized into different levels of severity (adverse consequences) (i.e. negligible, minor, marginal, critical and catastrophic). Amongst forty eight risk sources, top five risk sources which are supposed to adversely affect the company’s e-commerce performance are recognized through such categorization. The overall risk extent is determined by aggregating individual risks (under ‘critical’ level of severity) using Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) is then used to obtain structural relationship amongst aforementioned five risk sources. An appropriate action requirement plan is also suggested, to control and minimize risks associated with e-commerce exercises

Corporate Credit Rating: A Survey

Corporate credit rating (CCR) plays a very important role in the process of contemporary economic and social development. How to use credit rating methods for enterprises has always been a problem worthy of discussion. Through reading and studying the relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper makes a systematic survey of CCR. This paper combs the context of the development of CCR methods from the three levels: statistical models, machine learning models and neural network models, summarizes the common databases of CCR, and deeply compares the advantages and disadvantages of the models. Finally, this paper summarizes the problems existing in the current research and prospects the future of CCR. Compared with the existing review of CCR, this paper expounds and analyzes the progress of neural network model in this field in recent years.Comment: 11 page

A Model To Estimate Firms Accounting-Based Performance: A Data Envelopment Approach

The objective of the study was to follow a logical inductive approach to develop a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model to estimate the relative technical efficiency of firms. The Du Pont analysis theory as conceptual framework was applied using primarily readily available accounting line-items as input and output variables. From an interpretive epistemological paradigm and analytical reasoning, a new DEA model was developed with Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), leverage and expenditure as input variables and revenue, net profit and Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) as output variables. The originality of this study is that this is the first effort to employ accounting data, based on the Du Pont analysis in a DEA model. All the input and output variables in the model were already used individually or in combinations by previous studies, except for WACC. The study argues that WACC should be employed as a proxy for the accounting line-items, equity and liabilities, since lowering WACC implies that firms are moving closer to their optimal capital structures

Conception et application d'une méthodologie multicritère floue de sélection de logiciels de planification et d'ordonnancement avancé (APS)

Avec la mondialisation, la croissance des entreprises et les besoins de plus en plus exigeants des clients, les défis en termes de planification et d’ordonnancement des opérations en environnement manufacturier ne cessent de croitre. Face à cette situation, les entreprises manufacturières sont dans l’obligation de mettre à jour leurs politiques de planification et d’ordonnancement en adoptant des systèmes et des approches de planifications nouvelles telles que la planification et l’ordonnancement avancés (POA). Dans cet exercice, les entreprises désirant implanter des approches de POA ont généralement deux possibilités. Elles peuvent choisir de développer une solution personnalisée ou alors d’implanter des logiciels commerciaux de POA. La deuxième piste est plus courue de nos jours. L’objectif de ce travail est d’accompagner les entreprises désirant améliorer la planification et l’ordonnancement de leurs opérations par la sélection et l’implantation d’un logiciel commercial de POA. Plus précisément, le but de ce travail est d’évaluer et de sélectionner parmi les logiciels commerciaux de POA disponibles sur le marché celui qui satisfait au mieux les besoins de l’entreprise. Trois sous objectifs ont été identifiés : la cartographie des processus de planification et d’ordonnancement de l’entreprise, la capture des besoins de l’entreprise et la conception d’une nouvelle méthodologie de sélection intégrant sous incertitude à la fois les besoins de l’entreprise et les critères et sous critères de sélection. La méthodologie adoptée pour cette étude est celle dictée par la science de la conception, qui permet l’itération du processus de conception afin de perfectionner et de valider les résultats ou les livrables obtenus. Des données sont recueillies auprès d’experts et des preneurs de décisions internes à l’entreprise à l’aide d’entrevues individuelles et de groupes. Par ailleurs, en guise de contributions de cette recherche, trois méthodes ont été conçues. La première méthode permet de cartographier les processus de l’entreprise. La deuxième méthode est destinée à la capture des besoins de l’entreprise tandis que la troisième méthode intègre le déploiement de la fonction qualité (DFQ), l’analyse hiérarchique des processus (AHP) et la méthode VIKOR pour la sélection du logiciel qui satisfait au mieux les besoins de l’entreprise. Cette intégration est rendue possible en mettant en place une version modifiée du DFQ. L’incertitude sur les données provenant des enquêtes adressées aux experts et aux preneurs de décision est considérée par l’utilisation de la logique floue et des variables linguistiques. L’approche globale de l’étude est appliquée à un cas réel d’entreprise manufacturière. Les résultats montrent la pertinence des méthodes développées face au problème de selection d’un logiciel de POA