New constraints on micro-seismicity and stress state in the western part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone : Observations from a dense seismic array

Major funding was provided by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) under grant NE/I028017/1 and partially supported by Boğaziçi University Research Fund (BAP) under grant 6922. We would like to thank all the project members from the University of Leeds, Boğaziçi University, Kandilli Observatory, Aberdeen University and Sakarya University. I would also like to thank Prof. Ali Pinar and Dr. Kıvanç Kekovalı for their valuable comments. Some of the figures were generated by GMT software (Wessel and Smith, 1995).Peer reviewedPostprin

Seismicity relocation and fault structure near the Leech River Fault Zone, southern Vancouver Island

Relatively low rates of seismicity and fault loading have made it challenging to correlate microseismicity to mapped surface faults on the forearc of southern Vancouver Island. Here we use precise relocations of microsciesmicity integrated with existing geologic data, to present the first identification of subsurface seismogenic structures associated with the Leech River fault zone (LRFZ) on southern Vancouver Island. We used HypoDD double difference relocation method to relocate 1253 earthquakes reported by the Canadian National Seismograph Network (CNSN) catalog from 1985 to 2015. Our results reveal an ~8-10 km wide, NNE-dipping zone of seismicity representing a subsurface structure along the eastern 30 km of the terrestrial LRFZ and extending 20 km farther eastward offshore, where the fault bifurcates beneath the Juan de Fuca Strait. Using a clustering analysis we identify secondary structures within the NNE-dipping fault zone, many of which are sub-vertical and exhibit right-lateral strike-slip focal mechanisms. We suggest that the arrangement of these near-vertical dextral secondary structures within a more general NE-dipping fault zone, located well beneath (10-15 km) the Leech River fault (LRF) as imaged by LITHOPROBE, may be a consequence of the reactivation of this fault system as a right-lateral structure in the crust with pre-existing NNE-dipping foliations. Our results provide the first confirmation of active terrestrial crustal faults on Vancouver Island using a relocation method. We suggest that slowly slipping active crustal faults, especially in regions with pre-existing foliations, may result in microseismicity along fracture arrays rather than along single planar structures

Water, oceanic fracture zones and the lubrication of subducting plate boundaries - insights from seismicity

We investigate the relationship between subduction processes and related seismicity for the Lesser Antilles Arc using the Gutenberg-Richter law. This power lawdescribes the earthquakemagnitude distribution, with the gradient of the cumulative magnitude distribution being commonly known as the b-value. The Lesser Antilles Arc was chosen because of its alongstrike variability in sediment subduction and the transition from subduction to strike-slip movement towards its northern and southern ends. The data are derived from the seismicity catalogues from the Seismic Research Centre of The University of the West Indies and the Observatoires Volcanologiques et Sismologiques of the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris and consist of subcrustal events primarily from the slab interface. The b-value is found using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for a maximum-likelihood straight line-fitting routine. We investigate spatial variations in b-values using a grid-search with circular cells as well as an along-arc projection. Tests with different algorithms and the two independent earthquake cataloges provide confidence in the robustness of our results. We observe a strong spatial variability of the b-value that cannot be explained by the uncertainties. Rather than obtaining a simple north-south b-value distribution suggestive of the dominant control on earthquake triggering being water released from the sedimentary cover on the incoming American Plates, or a b-value distribution that correlates with on the obliquity of subduction, we obtain a series of discrete, high b-value 'bull's-eyes' along strike. These bull's-eyes, which indicate stress release through a higher fraction of small earthquakes, coincide with the locations of known incoming oceanic fracture zones on the American Plates. We interpret the results in terms of water being delivered to the Lesser Antilles subduction zone in the vicinity of fracture zones providing lubrication and thus changing the character of the related seismicity. Our results suggest serpentinization around mid-ocean ridge transform faults, which go on to become fracture zones on the incoming plate, plays a significant role in the delivery of water into the mantle at subduction zones

Exploring the effects of seismicity on landslides and catchment sediment yield: An Italian case study

Recent studies showed that contemporary average catchment sediment yields (SY, [t km− 2 y− 1]) at regional and continental scales are often strongly correlated to spatial patterns of seismic activity. Nonetheless, we currently have little insights into the mechanisms that explain these correlations. We investigated how spatial patterns of SY in Italy are linked to patterns of seismic activity. For a dataset of 103 Italian catchments with average SY measured over a period of years to decades, we extracted tectonic and none-tectonic variables that potentially explain observed differences in SY. These include proxies for vertical uplift rates and cumulative seismic moments (CSM) associated with historic earthquakes of different ranges of magnitude. Results showed that also across Italy, SY is significantly correlated to seismicity. However, SY showed much stronger correlations with proxies of seismicity relating to small but frequent earthquakes (2 ≤ Mw < 4) than with proxies relating to tectonic uplift or large, potentially landslide-triggering earthquakes (Mw ≥ 4). Analyses of a dataset of about 500,000 landslides across Italy showed very comparable trends: spatial patterns of landslides within similar lithological units generally show a significant positive correlation with CSM of weak but frequent seismicity and generally not with CSM of large earthquakes. These results suggest that, on a decadal time scale and at a regional/continental spatial scale, frequent but relatively weak seismicity may exert a more important geomorphic impact than large earthquake events or tectonic uplift. © 2016 Elsevier B.V

Characterizing Seismicity in Alberta for Induced-Seismicity Applications

This report documents the compilation of a high-quality catalog of earthquakes in Alberta and the surrounding region: the Composite Alberta Seismicity Catalog (CASC). It currently includes events through July 2015. The catalog and its documentation are available for download at www.inducedseismicity.ca. For the determination of the magnitude of completeness (Mc) of the catalog, we map Mc (xi, yi, t) across a grid of the region, where xi and yi represent the longitude and latitude of center nodes in the grid and t indicates time period. The empirical relation determined from the catalog and station data is of the form Mc(D4) = aD4+c, where D4 is the distance from (xi, yi) to the fourth-nearest station. Seven Mcmaps are created to represent spatial variations of Mc from 1985 to 2015. Based on the derived Mc maps, we estimate the equivalent rate of occurrences of M ≥3 earthquakes in various grids

Earthquake modelling at the country level using aggregated spatio-temporal point processes

The goal of this paper is to derive a hazard map for earthquake occurrences in Pakistan from a catalogue that contains spatial coordinates of shallow earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or larger aggregated over calendar years. We test relative temporal stationarity by the KPSS statistic and use the inhomogeneous J-function to test for inter-point interactions. We then formulate a cluster model, and de-convolve in order to calculate the hazard map, and verify that no particular year has an undue influence on the map. Within the borders of the single country, the KPSS test did not show any deviation from homogeneity in the spatial intensities. The inhomogeneous J-function indicated clustering that could not be attributed to inhomogeneity, and the analysis of aftershocks showed some evidence of two major shocks instead of one during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake disaster. Thus, the spatial point pattern analysis carried out for these data was insightful in various aspects and the hazard map that was obtained may lead to improved measures to protect the population against the disastrous effects of earthquakes

New insights into the application of the Coulomb model in real-time

The Coulomb model for stress change estimation is considered one of the most powerful physics-based forecasting tools, even though its calculations are affected by uncertainties due to the large number of a priori assumptions needed. The aim of this paper is to suggest a straightforward and reliable strategy to apply the Coulomb model for real-time forecasting. This is done by avoiding all dispensable assumptions, thus reducing the corresponding uncertainties. We demonstrate that the depth at which calculations are made is a parameter of utmost importance and apply the Coulomb model to three sequences in different tectonic regimes: Umbria-Marche (normal), Landers (strike-slip), and Chi-Chi (thrust). In each case the results confirm that when applying the Coulomb model: (i) the depth of calculation plays a fundamental role; (ii) depth uncertainties are not negligible; (iii) the best forecast at a given location is obtained by selecting the maximum stress change over the whole seismogenic depth rang

Source and dynamics of a volcanic caldera unrest : Campi Flegrei, 1983–84

Acknowledgements We thank Tiziana Vanorio, Antonella Amoruso, Luca Crescentini, Nicholas Rawlinson, Yasuko Takei, and David Cornwell for the valuable suggestions regarding the methodology and interpretation. Reviews from Tim Greenfield and two anonymous reviewers helped improving both clarity of the manuscript and interpretation. The Royal Society of Edinburgh - Accademia dei Lincei Bilateral Agreement, the Santander Mobility Award of the College of Physical Sciences, University of Aberdeen, and the TIDES EU COST action granted L.D.S. travel grants for the realisation of this study. E.D.P. has been supported by the EPHESTO and KNOWAVES projects, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science.Peer reviewedPublisher PD