10,731 research outputs found

    PreSEIS: A Neural Network-Based Approach to Earthquake Early Warning for Finite Faults

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    The major challenge in the development of earthquake early warning (EEW) systems is the achievement of a robust performance at largest possible warning time. We have developed a new method for EEW—called PreSEIS (Pre-SEISmic)—that is as quick as methods that are based on single station observations and, at the same time, shows a higher robustness than most other approaches. At regular timesteps after the triggering of the first EEW sensor, PreSEIS estimates the most likely source parameters of an earthquake using the available information on ground motions at different sensors in a seismic network. The approach is based on two-layer feed-forward neural networks to estimate the earthquake hypocenter location, its moment magnitude, and the expansion of the evolving seismic rupture. When applied to the Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System (IERREWS), PreSEIS estimates the moment magnitudes of 280 simulated finite faults scenarios (4.5≤M≤7.5) with errors of less than ±0.8 units after 0.5 sec, ±0.5 units after 7.5 sec, and ±0.3 units after 15.0 sec. In the same time intervals, the mean location errors can be reduced from 10 km over 6 km to less than 5 km, respectively. Our analyses show that the uncertainties of the estimated parameters (and thus of the warnings) decrease with time. This reveals a trade-off between the reliability of the warning on the one hand, and the remaining warning time on the other hand. Moreover, the ongoing update of predictions with time allows PreSEIS to handle complex ruptures, in which the largest fault slips do not occur close to the point of rupture initiation. The estimated expansions of the seismic ruptures lead to a clear enhancement of alert maps, which visualize the level and distribution of likely ground shaking in the affected region seconds before seismic waves will arrive

    On the evolution of elastic properties during laboratory stick-slip experiments spanning the transition from slow slip to dynamic rupture

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    The physical mechanisms governing slow earthquakes remain unknown, as does the relationship between slow and regular earthquakes. To investigate the mechanism(s) of slow earthquakes and related quasi-dynamic modes of fault slip we performed laboratory experiments on simulated fault gouge in the double direct shear configuration. We reproduced the full spectrum of slip behavior, from slow to fast stick slip, by altering the elastic stiffness of the loading apparatus (k) to match the critical rheologic stiffness of fault gouge (kc). Our experiments show an evolution from stable sliding, when k>kc, to quasi-dynamic transients when k ~ kc, to dynamic instabilities when k<kc. To evaluate the microphysical processes of fault weakening we monitored variations of elastic properties. We find systematic changes in P wave velocity (Vp) for laboratory seismic cycles. During the coseismic stress drop, seismic velocity drops abruptly, consistent with observations on natural faults. In the preparatory phase preceding failure, we find that accelerated fault creep causes a Vp reduction for the complete spectrum of slip behaviors. Our results suggest that the mechanics of slow and fast ruptures share key features and that they can occur on same faults, depending on frictional properties. In agreement with seismic surveys on tectonic faults our data show that their state of stress can be monitored by Vp changes during the seismic cycle. The observed reduction in Vp during the earthquake preparatory phase suggests that if similar mechanisms are confirmed in nature high-resolution monitoring of fault zone properties may be a promising avenue for reliable detection of earthquake precursors

    Constraints on fault and lithosphere rheology from the coseismic slip and postseismic afterslip of the 2006 M_w 7.0 Mozambique earthquake

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    The 2006 M_w 7.0 Mozambique (Machaze) normal-faulting earthquake ruptured an unusually steeply dipping fault plane (~75°). The amount of slip in the earthquake decreased from depths of ~10 km toward the surface, and this shallow slip deficit was at least partly recovered by postseismic afterslip on the shallow part of the fault plane. An adjacent normal fault segment slipped postseismically (and possibly also co-seismically) at shallow depths with a large strike-slip component, in response to the stresses generated by slip on the main earthquake fault plane. Our observations suggest that the fault zone behaves in a stick-slip manner in the crystalline basement, and that where it cuts the sedimentary layer the coseismic rupture was partially arrested and there was significant postseismic creep. We discuss the effects of such behavior on the large-scale tectonics of continental regions, and on the assessment of seismic hazard on similar fault systems. The steep dip of the fault suggests the re-activation of a preexisting structure with a coefficient of friction at least ~25–45% lower than that on optimally oriented planes, and analysis of the deformation following an aftershock indicates that the value of the parameter ‘a’ that describes the rate-dependence of fault friction lies in the range 1 × 10^(−3)–2 × 10^(−2). The lack of long-wavelength postseismic relaxation suggests viscosities in the ductile lithosphere of greater than ~2 × 10^(19) Pa s, and an examination of the tectonic geomorphology in the region identifies ways in which similar fault systems can be identified before they rupture in future earthquakes

    Seismology - Responsibilities and requirements of a growing science. Part 2 - problems and prospects

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    Theoretical and applied seismology, earthquake engineering, earth structure, industrial uses, facilities, and underground nuclear explosion detectio

    Current challenges for preseismic electromagnetic emissions: shedding light from micro-scale plastic flow, granular packings, phase transitions and self-affinity notion of fracture process

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    Are there credible electromagnetic (EM) EQ precursors? This a question debated in the scientific community and there may be legitimate reasons for the critical views. The negative view concerning the existence of EM precursors is enhanced by features that accompany their observation which are considered as paradox ones, namely, these signals: (i) are not observed at the time of EQs occurrence and during the aftershock period, (ii) are not accompanied by large precursory strain changes, (iii) are not accompanied by simultaneous geodetic or seismological precursors and (v) their traceability is considered problematic. In this work, the detected candidate EM precursors are studied through a shift in thinking towards the basic science findings relative to granular packings, micron-scale plastic flow, interface depinning, fracture size effects, concepts drawn from phase transitions, self-affine notion of fracture and faulting process, universal features of fracture surfaces, recent high quality laboratory studies, theoretical models and numerical simulations. Strict criteria are established for the definition of an emerged EM anomaly as a preseismic one, while, precursory EM features, which have been considered as paradoxes, are explained. A three-stage model for EQ generation by means of preseismic fracture-induced EM emissions is proposed. The claim that the observed EM precursors may permit a real-time and step-by-step monitoring of the EQ generation is tested
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