Selective Sampling with Drift

Recently there has been much work on selective sampling, an online active learning setting, in which algorithms work in rounds. On each round an algorithm receives an input and makes a prediction. Then, it can decide whether to query a label, and if so to update its model, otherwise the input is discarded. Most of this work is focused on the stationary case, where it is assumed that there is a fixed target model, and the performance of the algorithm is compared to a fixed model. However, in many real-world applications, such as spam prediction, the best target function may drift over time, or have shifts from time to time. We develop a novel selective sampling algorithm for the drifting setting, analyze it under no assumptions on the mechanism generating the sequence of instances, and derive new mistake bounds that depend on the amount of drift in the problem. Simulations on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our algorithms as a selective sampling algorithm in the drifting setting

Thompson Sampling in Dynamic Systems for Contextual Bandit Problems

We consider the multiarm bandit problems in the timevarying dynamic system for rich structural features. For the nonlinear dynamic model, we propose the approximate inference for the posterior distributions based on Laplace Approximation. For the context bandit problems, Thompson Sampling is adopted based on the underlying posterior distributions of the parameters. More specifically, we introduce the discount decays on the previous samples impact and analyze the different decay rates with the underlying sample dynamics. Consequently, the exploration and exploitation is adaptively tradeoff according to the dynamics in the system.Comment: 22 pages, 10 figure

A consistent deterministic regression tree for non-parametric prediction of time series

We study online prediction of bounded stationary ergodic processes. To do so, we consider the setting of prediction of individual sequences and build a deterministic regression tree that performs asymptotically as well as the best L-Lipschitz constant predictors. Then, we show why the obtained regret bound entails the asymptotical optimality with respect to the class of bounded stationary ergodic processes