Application of Wavelet Decomposition and Phase Space Reconstruction in Urban Water Consumption Forecasting: Chaotic Approach (Case Study)

The forecasting of future value of water consumption in an urban area is highly complex and nonlinear. It often exhibits a high degree of spatial and temporal variability. It is a crucial factor for long-term sustainable management and improvement of the operation of urban water allocation system. This chapter will study the application of two pre-processing phase space reconstruction (PSR) and wavelet decomposition transform (WDT) methods to investigate the behavior of time series to forecast short-term water demand value of Kelowna City (BC, Canada). The research proposes two pre-process technique to improve the accuracy of the models. Artificial neural networks (ANNs), gene expression programming (GEP) and multilinear regression (MLR) methods are the tools that considered for forecasting the demand values. Evaluation of the tools is based on two steps with and without applying the pre-processing methods. Moreover, autocorrelation function (ACF) is used to calculate the lag time. Correlation dimension is used to study the chaotic behavior of the dataset. The models’ relative performance is compared using three different fitness indexes; coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The results showed how pre-processing combination of WDT and PSR improved the performance of the models in forecasting short-term demand values

A comparison of performance of several artificial intelligence methods for forecasting monthly discharge time series

Author name used in this publication: Chun-Tian Cheng2009-2010 > Academic research: refereed > Publication in refereed journalAccepted ManuscriptPublishe

Development of Artificial Intelligence Approach to Nowcasting and Forecasting Oyster Norovirus Outbreaks along the U.S. Gulf Coast

Oyster norovirus outbreaks pose increasing risks to human health and seafood industry worldwide. This study presents an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based approach to identifying the primary cause of oyster norovirus outbreaks, nowcasting and forecasting the growing risk of oyster norovirus outbreaks in coastal waters. AI models were developed using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Genetic Programming (GP) methods and time series of epidemiological and environmental data. Input variable selection techniques, including Random Forests (RF) and Forwards Binary Logistic Regression (FBLR), were used to identify the significant model input variables among six independent environmental predictors including water temperature, solar radiation, gage height, salinity, wind, and rainfall and various combinations of the variables with different time lags. In terms of nowcasting, a risk-based GP model was developed to nowcast daily risks of oyster norovirus outbreaks along the Northern Gulf of Mexico coast, showing the true positive and negative rates of 78.53% and 88.82%, respectively. In terms of forecasting, an ANN model, called ANN-2Day, was presented. The forecasting model was capable of reproducing all historical oyster norovirus outbreaks with the true positive and negative rates of 100.00% and 99.84%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis results of the ANN-2Day model further indicated that oyster norovirus outbreaks were generally linked to the extreme combination of antecedent environmental conditions characterized by low water temperature, low solar radiation, low gage height, low salinity, strong wind, and heavy precipitation. In addition to the GP and ANN-2Day models, a remote sensing–based model was constructed using MODIS Aqua level 2 products. The remote sensing-based model enabled oyster management authorities to expand the prediction of norovirus outbreak risks from areas where monitoring data were accessible to other oyster harvest areas where monitoring stations are not available. In conclusion, the developed AI models enables public health agencies and oyster harvesters to better plan for management interventions and thus makes it possible to achieve a paradigm shift of their daily management and operation from primarily reacting to epidemic incidents of norovirus infection after they have occurred to eliminating (or at least reducing) the risk of costly incidents

Multisensor Fusion Remote Sensing Technology For Assessing Multitemporal Responses In Ecohydrological Systems

Earth ecosystems and environment have been changing rapidly due to the advanced technologies and developments of humans. Impacts caused by human activities and developments are difficult to acquire for evaluations due to the rapid changes. Remote sensing (RS) technology has been implemented for environmental managements. A new and promising trend in remote sensing for environment is widely used to measure and monitor the earth environment and its changes. RS allows large-scaled measurements over a large region within a very short period of time. Continuous and repeatable measurements are the very indispensable features of RS. Soil moisture is a critical element in the hydrological cycle especially in a semiarid or arid region. Point measurement to comprehend the soil moisture distribution contiguously in a vast watershed is difficult because the soil moisture patterns might greatly vary temporally and spatially. Space-borne radar imaging satellites have been popular because they have the capability to exhibit all weather observations. Yet the estimation methods of soil moisture based on the active or passive satellite imageries remain uncertain. This study aims at presenting a systematic soil moisture estimation method for the Choke Canyon Reservoir Watershed (CCRW), a semiarid watershed with an area of over 14,200 km2 in south Texas. With the aid of five corner reflectors, the RADARSAT-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imageries of the study area acquired in April and September 2004 were processed by both radiometric and geometric calibrations at first. New soil moisture estimation models derived by genetic programming (GP) technique were then developed and applied to support the soil moisture distribution analysis. The GP-based nonlinear function derived in the evolutionary process uniquely links a series of crucial topographic and geographic features. Included in this process are slope, aspect, vegetation cover, and soil permeability to compliment the well-calibrated SAR data. Research indicates that the novel application of GP proved useful for generating a highly nonlinear structure in regression regime, which exhibits very strong correlations statistically between the model estimates and the ground truth measurements (volumetric water content) on the basis of the unseen data sets. In an effort to produce the soil moisture distributions over seasons, it eventually leads to characterizing local- to regional-scale soil moisture variability and performing the possible estimation of water storages of the terrestrial hydrosphere. A new evolutionary computational, supervised classification scheme (Riparian Classification Algorithm, RICAL) was developed and used to identify the change of riparian zones in a semi-arid watershed temporally and spatially. The case study uniquely demonstrates an effort to incorporating both vegetation index and soil moisture estimates based on Landsat 5 TM and RADARSAT-1 imageries while trying to improve the riparian classification in the Choke Canyon Reservoir Watershed (CCRW), South Texas. The CCRW was selected as the study area contributing to the reservoir, which is mostly agricultural and range land in a semi-arid coastal environment. This makes the change detection of riparian buffers significant due to their interception capability of non-point source impacts within the riparian buffer zones and the maintenance of ecosystem integrity region wide. The estimation of soil moisture based on RADARSAT-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite imagery as previously developed was used. Eight commonly used vegetation indices were calculated from the reflectance obtained from Landsat 5 TM satellite images. The vegetation indices were individually used to classify vegetation cover in association with genetic programming algorithm. The soil moisture and vegetation indices were integrated into Landsat TM images based on a pre-pixel channel approach for riparian classification. Two different classification algorithms were used including genetic programming, and a combination of ISODATA and maximum likelihood supervised classification. The white box feature of genetic programming revealed the comparative advantage of all input parameters. The GP algorithm yielded more than 90% accuracy, based on unseen ground data, using vegetation index and Landsat reflectance band 1, 2, 3, and 4. The detection of changes in the buffer zone was proved to be technically feasible with high accuracy. Overall, the development of the RICAL algorithm may lead to the formulation of more effective management strategies for the handling of non-point source pollution control, bird habitat monitoring, and grazing and live stock management in the future. Soil properties, landscapes, channels, fault lines, erosion/deposition patches, and bedload transport history show geologic and geomorphologic features in a variety of watersheds. In response to these unique watershed characteristics, the hydrology of large-scale watersheds is often very complex. Precipitation, infiltration and percolation, stream flow, plant transpiration, soil moisture changes, and groundwater recharge are intimately related with each other to form water balance dynamics on the surface of these watersheds. Within this chapter, depicted is an optimal site selection technology using a grey integer programming (GIP) model to assimilate remote sensing-based geo-environmental patterns in an uncertain environment with respect to some technical and resources constraints. It enables us to retrieve the hydrological trends and pinpoint the most critical locations for the deployment of monitoring stations in a vast watershed. Geo-environmental information amassed in this study includes soil permeability, surface temperature, soil moisture, precipitation, leaf area index (LAI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). With the aid of a remote sensing-based GIP analysis, only five locations out of more than 800 candidate sites were selected by the spatial analysis, and then confirmed by a field investigation. The methodology developed in this remote sensing-based GIP analysis will significantly advance the state-of-the-art technology in optimum arrangement/distribution of water sensor platforms for maximum sensing coverage and information-extraction capacity. Effective water resources management is a critically important priority across the globe. While water scarcity limits the uses of water in many ways, floods also have caused so many damages and lives. To more efficiently use the limited amount of water or to resourcefully provide adequate time for flood warning, the results have led us to seek advanced techniques for improving streamflow forecasting. The objective of this section of research is to incorporate sea surface temperature (SST), Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) and meteorological characteristics with historical stream data to forecast the actual streamflow using genetic programming. This study case concerns the forecasting of stream discharge of a complex-terrain, semi-arid watershed. This study elicits microclimatological factors and the resultant stream flow rate in river system given the influence of dynamic basin features such as soil moisture, soil temperature, ambient relative humidity, air temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation. Evaluations of the forecasting results are expressed in terms of the percentage error (PE), the root-mean-square error (RMSE), and the square of the Pearson product moment correlation coefficient (r-squared value). The developed models can predict streamflow with very good accuracy with an r-square of 0.84 and PE of 1% for a 30-day prediction

Optimisation of hedging-integrated rule curves for reservoir operation

Reservoir managers use operational rule curves as guides for managing and operating reservoir systems. However, this approach saves no water for impending droughts, resulting in large shortages during such droughts. This problem can be tempered by integrating hedging with the rule curves to curtail the water releases during normal periods of operation and use the saved water to limit the amount and impact of water shortages during droughts. However, determining the timing and amount of hedging is a challenge. This thesis presents the application of genetic algorithms (GA) for the optimisation of hedging-integrated reservoir rule curves. However, due to the challenge of establishing the boundary of feasible region in standard GA (SGA), a new development of the GA i.e. the dynamic GA (DGA), is proposed. Both the new development and its hedging policies were tested through extensive simulations of the Ubonratana reservoir (Thailand). The first observation was that the new DGA was faster and more efficient than the SGA in arriving at an optimal solution. Additionally, the derived hedging policies produced significant changes in reservoir performance when compared to no-hedging policies. The performance indices analysed were reliability (time and volume), resilience, vulnerability and sustainability; the results showed that the vulnerability (i.e. average single periods shortage) in particular was significantly reduced with the optimised hedging rules as compared to using the no-hedging rule curves. This study also developed a monthly inflow forecasting model using artificial neural networks (ANN) to aid reservoir operational decision-making. Extensive testing of the model showed that it was able to provide inflow forecasts with reasonable accuracy. The simulated effect on reservoir performance of forecasted inflows vis-à-vis other assumed reservoir inflow knowledge situations showed that the ANN forecasts were superior, further reinforcing the importance of good inflow information for reservoir operation. The ability of hedging to harness the inherent buffering capacity of existing water resources systems for tempering water shortage (or vulnerability) without the need for expensive new-builds is a major outcome of this study. Although applied to Ubonratana, the study has utility for other regions of the world, where e.g. climate and other environmental changes are stressing the water availability situation

Global solar irradiation prediction using a multi-gene genetic programming approach

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from AIP Publishing via the DOI in this record.In this paper, a nonlinear symbolic regression technique using an evolutionary algorithm known as multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP) is applied for a data-driven modelling between the dependent and the independent variables. The technique is applied for modelling the measured global solar irradiation and validated through numerical simulations. The proposed modelling technique shows improved results over the fuzzy logic and artificial neural network (ANN) based approaches as attempted by contemporary researchers. The method proposed here results in nonlinear analytical expressions, unlike those with neural networks which is essentially a black box modelling approach. This additional flexibility is an advantage from the modelling perspective and helps to discern the important variables which affect the prediction. Due to the evolutionary nature of the algorithm, it is able to get out of local minima and converge to a global optimum unlike the back-propagation (BP) algorithm used for training neural networks. This results in a better percentage fit than the ones obtained using neural networks by contemporary researchers. Also a hold-out cross validation is done on the obtained genetic programming (GP) results which show that the results generalize well to new data and do not over-fit the training samples. The multi-gene GP results are compared with those, obtained using its single-gene version and also the same with four classical regression models in order to show the effectiveness of the adopted approach

Operational use of machine learning models for sea-level modeling

1427-1434Intense activity offshore warrants a temporal and accurate prediction of sea-level variability. Besides, the sea-level plays an important role in the groundwater level and quality of coastal aquifer. Climate change influences considerable change in all the hydrological parameters and apparently affects sea-level variability. For prediction, highly complex numerical models are usually generated. To address these challenges, the study proposes the use of machine learning (ML) models with the climate change predictands and sea-level predictors. Three ML models are employed in this study, viz., Regression Vector Machine (RVM), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). The performance of the developed models is evaluated by visual comparison of predicted and observed datasets. Regression error curve plots, frequency of forecasting errors and Taylor diagram, along with statistical performance metrics were developed. Overall, it is found that the operational use of the selected ML algorithms was quite appealing for modeling studies. Among the three ML models, GPR performed slightly better than ELM and RVM

Interpreting Housing Prices with a MultidisciplinaryApproach Based on Nature-Inspired Algorithms and Quantum Computing

Current technology still does not allow the use of quantum computers for broader and individual uses; however, it is possible to simulate some of its potentialities through quantum computing. Quantum computing can be integrated with nature-inspired algorithms to innovatively analyze the dynamics of the real estate market or any other economic phenomenon. With this main aim, this study implements a multidisciplinary approach based on the integration of quantum computing and genetic algorithms to interpret housing prices. Starting from the principles of quantum programming, the work applies genetic algorithms for the marginal price determination of relevant real estate characteristics for a particular segment of Naples’ real estate market. These marginal prices constitute the quantum program inputs to provide, as results, the purchase probabilities corresponding to each real estate characteristic considered. The other main outcomes of this study consist of a comparison of the optimal quantities for each real estate characteristic as determined by the quantum program and the average amounts of the same characteristics but relative to the real estate data sampled, as well as the weights of the same characteristics obtained with the implementation of genetic algorithms. With respect to the current state of the art, this study is among the first regarding the application of quantum computing to interpretation of selling prices in local real estate markets