Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice

In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or “tipping point”) beyond which the ice–albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice–albedo feedback. Here, we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that although the ice–albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice-cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea-ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely

A new sea ice albedo scheme including melt ponds for ECHAM5 general circulation model

Today we experience an accelerated melting of sea ice in the Arctic which global circulation models are inadequate to predict. We believe one of the reasons is the shortcomings in the sea ice albedo schemes for these models. This paper investigates a physically based sea ice albedo scheme for ECHAM5 GCM, which separates between snow-covered sea ice, bare sea ice, melt ponds, and open water (separately for the albedos and albedo fractions). The new albedo scheme includes important components such as albedo decay due to snow aging, bare sea ice albedo dependent on the ice thickness, and a melt pond albedo dependent on the melt pond depth. The explicit treatment of melt pond albedos has, to our knowledge, not been included in general circulation models before and represents a substantial improvement when simulating the annual cycle of sea ice albedo. The new albedo scheme overall reduces the sea ice albedo both in winter, because of snow aging, and in summer, because of melt ponds. The reduced sea ice albedo leads to overall reduced sea ice thickness, concentration, and volume, with large temporal and spatial variations. In the Northern Hemisphere in March, some areas experience increased albedo, resulting in thicker sea ice and higher ice concentration, but in August the pattern is spatially homogeneous, with reduced albedo, thickness, and concentrations for all areas where the new scheme has a significant effect. [References: 57

Quantifying the effects of background concentrations of crude oil pollution on sea ice albedo

Sea ice albedo plays an important role in modulating the climate of Earth and is affected by low background concentrations of oil droplets within the ice matrix that absorb solar radiation. In this study, the albedo response of three different types of bare sea ice (melting, first-year, and multi-year sea ice) are calculated at increasing mass ratios (0–1000 ng g−1) of crude oil by using a coupled atmosphere–sea ice radiative-transfer model (TUV-snow; Tropospheric Ultraviolet–Visible) over the optical wavelengths 400–700 nm. The different types of quasi-infinite-thickness sea ice exhibit different albedo responses to oil pollution, with a 1000 ng g−1 mass ratio of oil causing a decrease to 70.9 % in multi-year sea ice, 47.2 % in first-year sea ice, and 22.1 % in melting sea ice relative to the unpolluted albedo at a wavelength of 400 nm. The thickness of the sea ice is also an important factor, with realistic-thickness sea ices exhibiting similar results, albeit with a weaker albedo response for multi-year sea ice to 75.3 %, first-year sea ice to 66.3 %, and melting sea ice to 35.9 %. The type of oil also significantly affects the response of sea ice albedo, with a relatively opaque and heavy crude oil (Romashkino oil) causing a significantly larger decrease in sea ice albedo than a relatively transparent light crude oil (Petrobaltic oil). The size of the oil droplets polluting the oil also plays a minor role in the albedo response, with weathered submicrometre droplets (0.05–0.5 µm radius) of Romashkino oil being the most absorbing across the optical wavelengths considered. Therefore, the work presented here demonstrates that low background concentrations of small submicrometre- to micrometre-sized oil droplets have a significant effect on the albedo of bare sea ice. All three types of sea ice are sensitive to oil pollution; however, first-year sea ice and particularly melting sea ice are very sensitive to oil pollution.</p

Changes in summer sea ice, albedo, and portioning of surface solar radiation in the Pacific sector of Arctic Ocean during 1982-2009

SSM/I sea ice concentration and CLARA black-sky composite albedo were used to estimate sea ice albedo in the region 70 degrees N-82 degrees N, 130 degrees W-180 degrees W. The long-term trends and seasonal evolutions of ice concentration, composite albedo, and ice albedo were then obtained. In July-August 1982-2009, the linear trend of the composite albedo and the ice albedo was -0.069 and -0.046 units per decade, respectively. During 1 June to 19 August, melting of sea ice resulted in an increase of solar heat input to the ice-ocean system by 282 MJ.m(-2) from 1982 to 2009. However, because of the counter-balancing effects of the loss of sea ice area and the enhanced ice surface melting, the trend of solar heat input to the ice was insignificant. The summer evolution of ice albedo matched the ice surface melting and ponding well at basin scale. The ice albedo showed a large difference between the multiyear and first-year ice because the latter melted completely by the end of a melt season. At the SHEBA geolocations, a distinct change in the ice albedo has occurred since 2007, because most of the multiyear ice has been replaced by first-year ice. A positive polarity in the Arctic Dipole Anomaly could be partly responsible for the rapid loss of summer ice within the study region in the recent years by bringing warmer air masses from the south and advecting more ice toward the north. Both these effects would enhance ice-albedo feedback.Peer reviewe

Impacts of ocean albedo alteration on Arctic sea ice restoration and Northern Hemisphere climate

The Arctic Ocean is expected to transition into a seasonally ice-free state by mid-century, enhancing Arctic warming and leading to substantial ecological and socio-economic challenges across the Arctic region. It has been proposed that artificially increasing high latitude ocean albedo could restore sea ice, but the climate impacts of such a strategy have not been previously explored. Motivated by this, we investigate the impacts of idealized high latitude ocean albedo changes on Arctic sea ice restoration and climate. In our simulated 4xCO_2 climate, imposing surface albedo alterations over the Arctic Ocean leads to partial sea ice recovery and a modest reduction in Arctic warming. With the most extreme ocean albedo changes, imposed over the area 70°–90°N, September sea ice cover stabilizes at ~40% of its preindustrial value (compared to ~3% without imposed albedo modifications). This is accompanied by an annual mean Arctic surface temperature decrease of ~2 °C but no substantial global mean temperature decrease. Imposed albedo changes and sea ice recovery alter climate outside the Arctic region too, affecting precipitation distribution over parts of the continental United States and Northeastern Pacific. For example, following sea ice recovery, wetter and milder winter conditions are present in the Southwest United States while the East Coast experiences cooling. We conclude that although ocean albedo alteration could lead to some sea ice recovery, it does not appear to be an effective way of offsetting the overall effects of CO_2 induced global warming

The Albedo of Sea-Ice and Ice Islands in the Arctic Ocean Basin

In spring, when sea-ice is mostly snowcovered, the albedo of the surface is 80-90%, that of melting sea-ice in summer 65-46%, according to the proportion of puddles. Excluding puddles, the albedo of melting shelf-ice is about 77% and that of melting sea-ice about 65%; hence under similar conditions ablation of sea ice is 1.5 times greater than that of shelf ice. Based on airborne and surface measurements, on Ptarmigan flights, T-3, etc

Improved simulation of Antarctic sea ice due to the radiative effects of falling snow

Southern Ocean sea-ice cover exerts critical control on local albedo and Antarctic precipitation, but simulated Antarctic sea-ice concentration commonly disagrees with observations. Here we show that the radiative effects of precipitating ice (falling snow) contribute substantially to this discrepancy. Many models exclude these radiative effects, so they underestimate both shortwave albedo and downward longwave radiation. Using two simulations with the climate model CESM1, we show that including falling-snow radiative effects improves the simulations relative to cloud properties from CloudSat-CALIPSO, radiation from CERES-EBAF and sea-ice concentration from passive microwave sensors. From 50–70°S, the simulated sea-ice-area bias is reduced by 2.12 × 106 km2 (55%) in winter and by 1.17 × 106 km2 (39%) in summer, mainly because increased wintertime longwave heating restricts sea-ice growth and so reduces summer albedo. Improved Antarctic sea-ice simulations will increase confidence in projected Antarctic sea level contributions and changes in global warming driven by long-term changes in Southern Ocean feedbacks

Arctic sea ice and snow cover albedo variability and trends during the last three decades

The aim of the present study is to assess the full effect on the albedo of both sea ice extent decrease and snowline retreat in the Arctic during the last three decades. Averaged over the globe, the overall warming effect due to Arctic land and ocean albedo change corresponds to adding about 44% to the direct effect of human CO2 emissions during the same period. In fact, the area and thickness of Arctic sea ice have both been declining in this time frame. This has caused feedbacks affecting the whole global climate system. One such is albedo feedback of sea ice shrinking which was previously estimated (Pistone et al., 2014) to add about 25% to the direct warming effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In this study, we demonstrate that the role of snowline retreat in albedo decrease is comparable to that of sea ice shrinking. To this aim, we estimate the radiative forcing (W/m2) due to snow and ice decrease during 34 years (1982–2015) from the analysis of changes of observed albedo based on the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System Energy Balanced And Filled (CERES EBAF) dataset, paired with sea ice and snow cover data from the US National Snow &amp; Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

Reversibility of Arctic Sea Ice Retreat - A Multi-Scale Modeling Approach

Arctic summer sea ice has been retreating rapidly over past decade. Climate model projections show further retreat under typical forcing scenarios. The mode of the retreat is a matter of debate. Low-order models show reversible and irreversible retreat depending on the shape of the albedo parametrization. Climate models do not show irreversible sea ice losses, but generally underestimate the current trend of retreat