Autonomous Aerobraking: Thermal Analysis and Response Surface Development

A high-fidelity thermal model of the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter was developed for use in an autonomous aerobraking simulation study. Response surface equations were derived from the high-fidelity thermal model and integrated into the autonomous aerobraking simulation software. The high-fidelity thermal model was developed using the Thermal Desktop software and used in all phases of the analysis. The use of Thermal Desktop exclusively, represented a change from previously developed aerobraking thermal analysis methodologies. Comparisons were made between the Thermal Desktop solutions and those developed for the previous aerobraking thermal analyses performed on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter during aerobraking operations. A variable sensitivity screening study was performed to reduce the number of variables carried in the response surface equations. Thermal analysis and response surface equation development were performed for autonomous aerobraking missions at Mars and Venus

Towards responsive Sensitive Artificial Listeners

This paper describes work in the recently started project SEMAINE, which aims to build a set of Sensitive Artificial Listeners – conversational agents designed to sustain an interaction with a human user despite limited verbal skills, through robust recognition and generation of non-verbal behaviour in real-time, both when the agent is speaking and listening. We report on data collection and on the design of a system architecture in view of real-time responsiveness

Development of a framework for automated systematic testing of safety-critical embedded systems

“This material is presented to ensure timely dissemination of scholarly and technical work. Copyright and all rights therein are retained by authors or by other copyright holders. All persons copying this information are expected to adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by each author's copyright. In most cases, these works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of the copyright holder." “Copyright IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or to reuse any copyrighted component of this work in other works must be obtained from the IEEE.”In this paper we introduce the development of a framework for testing safety-critical embedded systems based on the concepts of model-based testing. In model-based testing the test cases are derived from a model of the system under test. In our approach the model is an automaton model that is automatically extracted from the C-source code of the system under test. Beside random test data generation the test case generation uses formal methods, in detail model checking techniques. To find appropriate test cases we use the requirements defined in the system specification. To cover further execution paths we developed an additional, to our best knowledge, novel method based on special structural coverage criteria. We present preliminary results on the model extraction using a concrete industrial case study from the automotive domain

A Guide to Solar Power Forecasting using ARMA Models

We describe a simple and succinct methodology to develop hourly auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models to forecast power output from a photovoltaic solar generator. We illustrate how to build an ARMA model, to use statistical tests to validate it, and construct hourly samples. The resulting model inherits nice properties for embedding it into more sophisticated operation and planning models, while at the same time showing relatively good accuracy. Additionally, it represents a good forecasting tool for sample generation for stochastic energy optimization models

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of fluticasone propionate for treating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in the presence of missing data

Objectives: To explore the cost-effectiveness of fluticasone propionate (FP) for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), we estimated costs and qualityadjusted life-years (QALYs) over 3 years, based on an economic appraisal of a previously reported clinical trial (Inhaled Steroids in Obstructive Lung Disease in Europe [ISOLDE]). Methods: Seven hundred forty-two patients enrolled in the ISOLDE trial who received either FP or placebo had data available on health-care costs and quality of life over the period of the study. The SF-36-based utility scores for quality of life were used to calculate QALYs. A combined imputation and bootstrapping procedure was employed to handle missing data and to estimate statistical uncertainty in the estimated cumulative costs and QALYs over the study period. The imputation approach was based on propensity scoring and nesting this approach within the bootstrap ensured that multiple imputations were performed such that statistical estimates included imputation uncertainty. Results: Complete data were available on mortality within the follow-up period of the study and a nonsignificant trend toward improved survival of 0.06 (95% confidence interval [CI] –0.01 to 0.15) life-years was observed. In an analysis based on a propensity scoring approach to missing data we estimated the incremental costs of FP versus placebo to be £1021 (95% CI £619–1338) with an additional effect of 0.11 QALYs (CI 0.04–0.20). Cost-effectiveness estimates for the within-trial period of £17,700 per life-year gained (£6900 to ∞) and £9500 per QALY gained (CI £4300–26,500) were generated that include uncertainty due to the imputation process. An alternative imputation approach did not materially affect these estimates. Conclusions: Previous analyses of the ISOLDE study showed significant improvement on disease-specific health status measures and a trend toward a survival advantage for treatment with FP. This analysis shows that joint considerations of quality of life and survival result in a substantial increase in QALYs favoring treatment with FP. Based on these data, the inhaled corticosteroid FP appears costeffective for the treatment of COPD. Confirmation or refutation of this result may be achieved once the Towards a Revolution in COPD Health (TORCH) study reports, a large randomized controlled trial powered to detect mortality changes associated with the use of FP alone, or in combination with salmeterol, which is also collecting resource use and utility data suitable for estimating cost-effectiveness