Parallel Bayesian Optimization of Agent-based Transportation Simulation

MATSim (Multi-Agent Transport Simulation Toolkit) is an open source large-scale agent-based transportation planning project applied to various areas like road transport, public transport, freight transport, regional evacuation, etc. BEAM (Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, and Mobility) framework extends MATSim to enable powerful and scalable analysis of urban transportation systems. The agents from the BEAM simulation exhibit 'mode choice' behavior based on multinomial logit model. In our study, we consider eight mode choices viz. bike, car, walk, ride hail, driving to transit, walking to transit, ride hail to transit, and ride hail pooling. The 'alternative specific constants' for each mode choice are critical hyperparameters in a configuration file related to a particular scenario under experimentation. We use the 'Urbansim-10k' BEAM scenario (with 10,000 population size) for all our experiments. Since these hyperparameters affect the simulation in complex ways, manual calibration methods are time consuming. We present a parallel Bayesian optimization method with early stopping rule to achieve fast convergence for the given multi-in-multi-out problem to its optimal configurations. Our model is based on an open source HpBandSter package. This approach combines hierarchy of several 1D Kernel Density Estimators (KDE) with a cheap evaluator (Hyperband, a single multidimensional KDE). Our model has also incorporated extrapolation based early stopping rule. With our model, we could achieve a 25% L1 norm for a large-scale BEAM simulation in fully autonomous manner. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first of its kind applied to large-scale multi-agent transportation simulations. This work can be useful for surrogate modeling of scenarios with very large populations.Comment: LOD'2022 (Nature Springer Computer Science Proceedings - LNCS

Four-dimensional variational data assimilation for inverse modeling of atmospheric methane emissions: Analysis of SCIAMACHY observations

Recent observations from the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) instrument aboard ENVISAT have brought new insights in the global distribution of atmospheric methane. In particular, the observations showed higher methane concentrations in the tropics than previously assumed. Here, we analyze the SCIAMACHY observations and their implications for emission estimates in detail using a four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system. We focus on the period September to November 2003 and on the South American continent, for which the satellite observations showed the largest deviations from model simulations. In this set-up the advantages of the 4D-Var approach and the zooming capability of the underlying TM5 atmospheric transport model are fully exploited. After application of a latitude-dependent bias correction to the SCIAMACHY observations, the assimilation system is able to accurately fit those observations, while retaining consistency with a network of surface methane measurements. The main emission increments resulting from the inversion are an increase in the tropics, a decrease in South Asia, and a decrease at northern hemispheric high latitudes. The SCIAMACHY observations yield considerable additional emission uncertainty reduction, particularly in the (sub-)tropical regions, which are poorly constrained by the surface network. For tropical South America, the inversion suggests more than a doubling of emissions compared to the a priori during the 3 months considered. Extensive sensitivity experiments, in which key assumptions of the inversion set-up are varied, show that this finding is robust. Independent airborne observations in the Amazon basin support the presence of considerable local methane sources. However, these observations also indicate that emissions from eastern South America may be smaller than estimated from SCIAMACHY observations. In this respect it must be realized that the bias correction applied to the satellite observations does not take into account potential regional systematic errors, which - if identified in the future - will lead to shifts in the overall distribution of emission estimates

Combining spatial information sources while accounting for systematic errors in proxies

Environmental research increasingly uses high-dimensional remote sensing and numerical model output to help fill space-time gaps between traditional observations. Such output is often a noisy proxy for the process of interest. Thus one needs to separate and assess the signal and noise (often called discrepancy) in the proxy given complicated spatio-temporal dependencies. Here I extend a popular two-likelihood hierarchical model using a more flexible representation for the discrepancy. I employ the little-used Markov random field approximation to a thin plate spline, which can capture small-scale discrepancy in a computationally efficient manner while better modeling smooth processes than standard conditional auto-regressive models. The increased flexibility reduces identifiability, but the lack of identifiability is inherent in the scientific context. I model particulate matter air pollution using satellite aerosol and atmospheric model output proxies. The estimated discrepancies occur at a variety of spatial scales, with small-scale discrepancy particularly important. The examples indicate little predictive improvement over modeling the observations alone. Similarly, in simulations with an informative proxy, the presence of discrepancy and resulting identifiability issues prevent improvement in prediction. The results highlight but do not resolve the critical question of how best to use proxy information while minimizing the potential for proxy-induced error.Comment: 5 figures, 2 table

Winter ozone formation and VOC incremental reactivities in the Upper Green River Basin of Wyoming

The Upper Green River Basin (UGRB) in Wyoming experiences ozone episodes in the winter when the air is relatively stagnant and the ground is covered by snow. A modeling study was carried out to assess relative contributions of oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) and individual volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and nitrous acid (HONO) in winter ozone formation episodes in this region. The conditions of two ozone episodes, one in February 2008 and one in March 2011, were represented using a simplified box model with all pollutants present initially, but with the detailed SAPRC-07 chemical mechanism adapted for the temperature and radiation conditions arising from the high surface albedo of the snow that was present. Sensitivity calculations were conducted to assess effects of varying HONO inputs, ambient VOC speciation, and changing treatments of temperature and lighting conditions. The locations modeled were found to be quite different in VOC speciation and sensitivities to VOC and NO_x emissions, with one site modeled for the 2008 episode being highly NO_x-sensitive and insensitive to VOCs and HONO, and the other 2008 site and both 2011 sites being very sensitive to changes in VOC and HONO inputs. Incremental reactivity scales calculated for VOC-sensitive conditions in the UGRB predict far lower relative contributions of alkanes to ozone formation than in the traditional urban-based MIR scale and that the major contributors to ozone formation were the alkenes and the aromatics, despite their relatively small mass contributions. The reactivity scales are affected by the variable ambient VOC speciation and uncertainties in ambient HONO levels. These box model calculations are useful for indicating general sensitivities and reactivity characteristics of these winter UGRB episodes, but fully three-dimensional models will be required to assess ozone abatement strategies in the UGRB

Multi-dimensional numerical simulations of type Ia supernova explosions

The major role type Ia supernovae play in many fields of astrophysics and in particular in cosmological distance determinations calls for self-consistent models of these events. Since their mechanism is believed to crucially depend on phenomena that are inherently three-dimensional, self-consistent numerical models of type Ia supernovae must be multi-dimensional. This field has recently seen a rapid development, which is reviewed in this article. The different modeling approaches are discussed and as an illustration a particular explosion model -- the deflagration model -- in a specific numerical implementation is presented in greater detail. On this exemplary case, the procedure of validating the model on the basis of comparison with observations is discussed as well as its application to study questions arising from type Ia supernova cosmology.Comment: 30 pages, 7 figures (Fig. 6 with reduced resolution

Multi-method-modeling of interacting galaxies. I. A unique scenario for NGC 4449?

(abridged) We combined several N-body methods in order to investigate the interaction scenario between NGC 4449 and DDO 125, a close companion in projected space. In a first step fast restricted N-body models are used to confine a region in parameter space reproducing the main observational features. In a second step a genetic algorithm is applied for a uniqueness test of our preferred parameter set. We show that our genetic algorithm reliably recovers orbital parameters, provided that the data are sufficiently accurate, i.e. all the key features are included. In the third step the results of the restricted N-body models are compared with self-consistent N-body simulations. In the case of NGC 4449, the applicability of the simple restricted N-body calculations is demonstrated. Additionally, it is shown that the HI gas can be modeled here by a purely stellar dynamical approach. In a series of simulations, we demonstrate that the observed features of the extended HI disc can be explained by a gravitational interaction between NGC 4449 and DDO 125. According to these calculations the closest approach between both galaxies happened $\sim 4-6 \cdot 10^8$ yr ago at a minimum distance of $\sim 25$ kpc on a parabolic or slightly elliptic orbit. In the case of an encounter scenario, the dynamical mass of DDO 125 should not be smaller than 10% of NGC 4449's mass. Before the encounter, the observed HI gas was arranged in a disc with a radius of 35-40 kpc around the center of NGC 4449. It had the same orientation as the central ellipsoidal HI structure. The origin of this disc is still unclear, but it might have been caused by a previous interaction.Comment: 19 pages with 19 figures, accepted for publication in Astron. & Astrophys., a full PostScript version is available at http://www.astrophysik.uni-kiel.de/pershome/theis/pub.htm