Scenario analysis as a tool for informing the design of behaviour change interventions

This article presents the design process behind the specification of a behaviour change intervention method to promote energy saving. The amount of energy used for food preparation is highly influenced by people’s behaviours. A user-centred design approach based on scenario analysis was applied to provide understanding of context of use and specification of user requirements. This knowledge was applied to the design of behaviour change interventions to motivate sustainable behaviours

Scenario Analysis as a Tool for Informing the Design of Behaviour Change Interventions

This article presents the design process behind the specification of a behaviour change intervention method to promote energy saving. The amount of energy used for food preparation is highly influenced by people’s behaviours. A user-centred design approach based on scenario analysis was applied to provide understanding of context of use and specification of user requirements. This knowledge was applied to the design of behaviour change interventions to motivate sustainable behaviours

How the health-seeking behaviour of pregnant women affects neonatal outcomes: findings of system dynamics modelling in Pakistan

Background: Limited studies have explored how health-seeking behaviour during pregnancy through to delivery affect neonatal outcomes. We modelled health-seeking behaviour across urban and rural settings in Pakistan, where poor neonatal outcomes persist with wide disparities. Methods and findings: A system dynamics model was developed and parameterised. Following validation tests, the model was used to determine neonatal mortality for pregnant women considering their decisions to access, refuse and switch antenatal care services in four provider sectors: public, private, traditional and charitable. Four health-seeking scenarios were tested across different pregnancy trimesters. Health-seeking behaviour in different subgroups by geographical locations and social network effect was modelled. The largest reduction in neonatal mortality was achieved with antenatal care provided by skilled providers in public, private or charitable sectors, combined with the use of institutional delivery. Women’s social networks had strong influences on if, when and where to seek care. Interventions by Lady Health Workers had a minimal impact on health-seeking behaviour and neonatal outcomes after trimester 1. Optimal benefits were achieved for urban women when antenatal care was accessed within trimester 2, but for rural women within trimester 1. Antenatal care access delayed to trimester 3 had no protective impact on neonatal mortality. Conclusions: System dynamics modelling enables capturing the complexity of health-seeking behaviours and impact on outcomes, informing intervention design, implementation of targeted policies and uptake of services specific to urban/rural settings considering structural enablers/barriers to access, cultural contexts and strong social network influences

Experimental Economics: Applications to Environmental Policy

Incentives, regulations and other policy interventions intended to promote sustainability work through influencing human behaviour. There is therefore much to be gained from a thorough understanding of exactly how various policy interventions relate to the decision-making process. Experimental economics, and the closely related fields of behavioural economics and behavioural finance, apply an empirical approach to study how people act when faced with a range of economic and social scenarios. The experimental approach was pioneered by Vernon Smith and Daniel Kahneman and others, building on early studies by Chamberlin (1948). In recognition of this work, Kahneman and Smith were awarded the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. This paper briefly reviews the applications and methods of experimental economics, relates some key research findings and describes some examples of its use in informing environmental policy.Experimental economics, Behavioral economics, Environmental economics, Environmental markets, Market-based instruments, MBIs

KULLANICI EĞİLİMLERİNE YÖNELİK TASARIM: BANYO ORTAMINDA SU ETKİNLİĞİ İÇİN KİŞİSEL BAKIM VE HİJYEN PRATİKLERİNDE DAVRANIŞ DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNİ TEŞVİK ETMEK AMACIYLA ERKEN TASARIM AŞAMALARININ DESTEKLENMESİ

Across many regions of the world, the ever-increasing households water demand, mainly shaped through individuals’ unsustainable behaviors, is threatening the water supplies. It is widely acknowledged that design offers possibilities to mitigate the environmental impacts of use behaviors through structuring the ways individuals engage with their surroundings. Though, since behaviors are determined through a range of factors that are difficult to influence, design interventions aimed at reducing the harmful effects of use may not ensure behavior change. Advancing on this problem, this doctoral study aims to understand the behavioral reasons for intensive use of water, reveal the users’ diverse intentions to adopt sustainable behaviors, and identify design strategies for behavior change to support the development of ideas for influencing behaviors for the effective use of water through a study focusing on personal care and hygiene practices in the bathroom environment. To achieve this, it adopts a generative research approach to reveal the individuals’ existing behaviors, attitudes, and intentions concerning water consumption and a research through design approach to effectively communicate the acquired knowledge to inspire the development of diverse ideas for behavior change. Through cycles of designing, implementing, evaluating, and revising, this thesis offers a generative tool (inspiration cards) and a generative method (DUI workshops) and evaluates their implications on the ideation process through a series of design workshops. The proposed inspirations cards and the DUI workshop provide a valuable knowledge source and guidance for the design researchers and practitioners to influence behaviors towards sustainable directions through enabling them to explore the problem area and the user, generate diverse ideas, refine the developed ideas, reconsider the ideas for different user intentions and support their design decisions.Bireylerin sürdürülebilir olmayan davranışlarıyla şekillenerek sürekli artan evsel su talebi, dünyanın birçok bölgesinde su kaynaklarını tehdit etmektedir. Tasarımın, bireylerin çevreleriyle etkileşim kurma biçimlerini etkileyerek, kullanım davranışlarının çevresel etkilerini azaltmaya yönelik olanaklar sunduğu yaygın olarak kabul edilmektedir. Ancak, davranışlar etkilenmesi zor olan birtakım faktörler tarafından belirlendiğinden, kullanımın zararlı etkilerini azaltmayı amaçlayan tasarım müdahaleleri davranış değişikliğini sağlamayabilir. Bu doktora çalışması banyo ortamındaki kişisel bakım ve hijyen pratiklerine odaklanarak, yoğun su kullanımının davranışsal nedenlerinin anlaşılması, kullanıcıların sürdürülebilir davranışları benimsemeye yönelik farklı eğilimlerinin tanımlanması ve davranış değişikliği için tasarım stratejilerinin belirlenmesi aracılığıyla suyun verimli kullanımı için davranışların etkilenmesine yönelik fikir geliştirme sürecinin desteklenmesini hedeflemektedir. Araştırma, su tüketimiyle ilgili mevcut davranışları, tutumları ve niyetleri ortaya çıkarmak için yaratıcı araştırma yöntemlerini ve bu bilginin etkili bir şekilde paylaşılarak davranış değişikliği için çeşitli fikirlerin geliştirilmesine ilham vermek amacıyla tasarım yoluyla araştırma yaklaşımını benimser. Tasarlama, uygulama, değerlendirme ve düzenleme döngüleri aracılığıyla bu tez kapsamında bir yaratıcı araç (ilham kartları) ve yöntem (DUI çalıştayları) geliştirilmiş ve bunların fikir geliştirme süreçlerine yönelik etkileri tasarım çalıştayları aracılığıyla değerlendirilmiştir. İlham kartları ve DUI çalıştayı, problem alanının ve kullanıcının keşfedilmesini, çeşitli fikirlerin üretilmesini ve detaylandırılmasını, farklı kullanıcı eğilimleri için fikirlerin yeniden ele alınmasını ve tasarım kararlarının savunulmasını destekleyerek, davranışların sürdürülebilir yönlerde etkilenmesine yönelik tasarımcılar ve tasarım araştırmacıları için değerli bir bilgi kaynağı ve rehber niteliği taşır.Ph.D. - Doctoral Progra

Development of an innovative technology based youth passenger safety program - an evidence-based approach

Young drivers are overrepresented in motor vehicle crash rates, and their risk increases when carrying similar aged passengers. Graduated Driver Licensing strategies have demonstrated effectiveness in reducing fatalities among young drivers, however complementary approaches may further reduce crash rates. Previous studies conducted by the researchers have shown that there is considerable potential for a passenger focus in youth road safety interventions, particularly involving the encouragement of young passengers to intervene in their peers’ risky driving (Buckley, Chapman, Sheehan & Davidson, 2012). Additionally, this research has shown that technology-based applications may be a promising means of delivering passenger safety messages, particularly as young people are increasingly accessing web-based and mobile technologies. This research describes the participatory design process undertaken to develop a web-based road safety program, and involves feasibility testing of storyboards for a youth passenger safety application. Storyboards and framework web-based materials were initially developed for a passenger safety program, using the results of previous studies involving online and school-based surveys with young people. Focus groups were then conducted with 8 school staff and 30 senior school students at one public high school in the Australian Capital Territory. Young people were asked about the situations in which passengers may feel unsafe and potential strategies for intervening in their peers’ risky driving. Students were also shown the storyboards and framework web-based material and were asked to comment on design and content issues. Teachers were also shown the material and asked about their perceptions of program design and feasibility. The focus group data will be used as part of the participatory design process, in further developing the passenger safety program. This research describes an evidence-based approach to the development of a web-based application for youth passenger safety. The findings of this research and resulting technology will have important implications for the road safety education of senior high school students

Scenarios for Educational and Game Activities using Internet of Things Data

Raising awareness among young people and changing their behavior and habits concerning energy usage and the environment is key to achieving a sustainable planet. The goal to address the global climate problem requires informing the population on their roles in mitigation actions and adaptation of sustainable behaviors. Addressing climate change and achieve ambitious energy and climate targets requires a change in citizen behavior and consumption practices. IoT sensing and related scenario and practices, which address school children via discovery, gamification, and educational activities, are examined in this paper. Use of seawater sensors in STEM education, that has not previously been addressed, is included in these educational scenaria

Handling uncertainty in transport planning and decision making - Report of a roundtable discussion held in London on 20 July 2018

In the 1700s, the French philosopher Voltaire reportedly said “Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position. But certainty is an absurd one.” The transport sector is becoming increasingly alive to how uncertain the future is. There is significant (or ‘deep’) uncertainty about the extent to which existing trends, relationships, technologies, economic and social forces, preferences and constraints will carry into the future. Uncomfortable though it may be, there is a need in our transport planning and decision making to avoid absurdity and address this. This report reflects the insights gained from a roundtable workshop in London convened to discuss the matter.For some, absurdity concerns the continuation of a longstanding norm in transport planning of appraising future prospects through a reliance on being able to judge what the most likely future is or, in forecasting terms, what the central projection can be considered to be (with management of uncertainty through some form of error band either side of this). Such approaches no longer command a professional or public consensus. The notion of ‘most likely’ is either being challenged or a divergence of views exists over which type of future can be deemed most likely.Orthodox notions of predicting the future are giving way to scenario planning in which multiple alternative scenarios – substantially different pictures of what course of events might unfold - are entertained. One of the challenges here is in judging whether the true extent of uncertainty is being accounted for, distinguishing between probable (likely to happen), plausible (could happen) and possible (might happen) futures. Views are subjective (and further coloured by opinion on preferable (desirable) futures). This can appear uncomfortable compared to the illusion of a well-defined most likely future that frames the decision making task. Yet the act of embracing and accommodating rather than concealing uncertainty holds the prospect of better supporting and informing decision making.The following proposition emerges for an approach that may be especially well suited to the early strategic planning and optioneering stages of the policymaking process. Set against a wish to fulfil a high level vision, the aim is to consider the implications of different courses of policy action in the face of multiple plausible futures. Does a course of action align with the vision in each plausible future considered or does it align well in some and not in others? The intention is to reconcile risk and yield. The best course of policy action for one assumed future may give high yield in relation to the vision but may also carry a high risk of misalignment or even failure in other plausible futures. Meanwhile, a course of action which has reasonable alignment across multiple futures may offer a lower (but acceptable) yield but with lower risk.As becomes apparent from the considerations above, the handling of uncertainty is a wicked problem that is inherently insoluble. It is wicked in the sense that it concerns: (i) divergence in views, understanding and values across stakeholders; (ii) knowledge gaps and a lack of ‘evidence’; and (iii) needing to deal with complex relationships between multiple considerations. This should not imply policymaking paralysis if progress can be made as outlined above in terms of embracing and accommodating uncertainty.In critically examining how uncertainty has been, and continues to be, handled in mainstream transport planning practice and exploring the prospects for changing this, the following key issues emerged through the roundtable discussion:Transport planning inertia – Well established approaches, procedures and norms can conspire against developing and adopting new approaches that may be better able to handle uncertainty but which are unfamiliar and potentially challenging to communicate. Acknowledging uncertainty can have connotations of poor confidence and conviction in decisions being made – for example in the context of public inquiries.Learning by doing – The application of new approaches should be strongly encouraged, with a ‘learning by doing’ philosophy where experiences of those new approaches and the lessons learned are shared with others. Continued dialogue of the sort fostered by the roundtable is important. Guidance should be seen as an accompaniment to this evolutionary approach and as something which itself must be flexible and evolving. The growing signs of transport authorities wishing to take account of deep uncertainty in their decision making are to be welcomed.Closing down uncertainty – To avoid decision making paralysis, the exposure or opening out of uncertainty through scenario planning needs to be followed by an appropriate process of closing down. Closing down refers to how the exposed uncertainty is then accounted for in informing and enabling decision making. Closing down can take the form of concealing, reducing or accommodating uncertainty and distinguishing between them is important. Uncertainty may be concealed by reversion to focusing upon a most likely future. It may be reduced through better monitoring and understanding of change taking place or through greater effort to control the shaping of the future. Accommodation of uncertainty (as outlined above) involves making sense of what to do in decision making terms with the uncertainty that has been exposed.Analytical fitness for purpose – Especially in the face of finite time and resources, it is important that the analytical approach supporting each stage in the policymaking process is fit for purpose. There is a risk that emphasis is currently being put in the wrong place in terms of analytical effort and rigour. Heavyweight modelling tools may be used to address a small number of scenarios when, particularly at the earlier stages in the policymaking process, simpler (though not to infer less robust) analytical tools can be more effective in exploring the uncertainty space of plausible futures and enabling dialogue and development of views of actors in the process.Communication is key – The analytical tools will only ever be a part of the wider process of examining and interpreting the uncertainty faced. It is important that the actors involved in that process - from the analysts to the decision makers themselves - are enabled rather than confused by how the tools are used and their results conveyed. There is a balance to be struck between the breadth and depth of examination of the uncertainty space. There is also a need to recognise the place of both ‘narrative’ and ‘numbers’ in order to ensure effective engagement with actors and to communicate the credibility of, and insights from, scenarios analysis.Guidance and leadership – The current existence of guidance for appraisal, including the handling of uncertainty, may intend to provide latitude for interpretation rather than ‘rules’ to be complied with. However, this is not always how guidance is treated in practice. As approaches to handling uncertainty are evolved, it will be particularly important that accompanying guidance is enabling rather than constraining. This may require that practitioners are guided on how to use the guidance (with a role for case studies). Leadership will also be critical within organisations in providing staff with appropriate direction, mandate and agency to address uncertainty.Resources and expertise - We may be facing a perfect storm in transport planning: greater uncertainty over the future at a time of depleted resources and capabilities to address business as usual, let alone the handling of uncertainty. One means of starting to address this would be to consider how available resources can be redistributed across the transport planning and decision making process alongside seeking to reconsider the makeup of experts required to handle uncertainty and communicate it to decision makers. Handling uncertainty must become integral to mainstream practice rather than a bolt-on to it, with the latter risking being misaligned and ignored

Crime scripting: A systematic review

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version.More than two decades after the publication of Cornish’s seminal work about the script-theoretic approach to crime analysis, this article examines how the concept has been applied in our community. The study provides evidence confirming that the approach is increasingly popular; and takes stock of crime scripting practices through a systematic review of over one hundred scripts published between 1994 and 2018. The results offer the first comprehensive picture of this approach, and highlights new directions for those interested in using data from cyber-systems and the Internet of Things to develop effective situational crime prevention measures