Taming Model Uncertainty in Self-adaptive Systems Using Bayesian Model Averaging

Research on uncertainty quantification and mitigation of software-intensive systems and (self-)adaptive systems, is increasingly gaining momentum, especially with the availability of statistical inference techniques (such as Bayesian reasoning) that make it possible to mitigate uncertain (quality) attributes of the system under scrutiny often encoded in the system model in terms of model parameters. However, to the best of our knowledge, the uncertainty about the choice of a specific system model did not receive the deserved attention.This paper focuses on self-adaptive systems and investigates how to mitigate the uncertainty related to the model selection process, that is, whenever one model is chosen over plausible alternative and competing models to represent the understanding of a system and make predictions about future observations. In particular, we propose to enhance the classical feedback loop of a self-adaptive system with the ability to tame the model uncertainty using Bayesian Model Averaging. This method improves the predictions made by the analyze component as well as the plan that adopts metaheuristic optimizing search to guide the adaptation decisions. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates the cost-effectiveness of our approach using an exemplar case study in the robotics domain

Modelling of the Military Helicopter Operation Process in Terms of Readiness

The processes of exploitation of military objects are usually characterised by the specificity of the operation and the complexity of both the process itself and the object. This specificity may relate both to the type of tasks that these objects carry out and to the environment in which these processes take place. Complexity is usually reflected in the very structure of an object (for example, a ship, an aircraft or a helicopter) and, consequently, in its operation/maintenance system. The above mentioned features, as well as the limited access to data, naturally limits the set of publications available on this subject. In this article, the authors have presented a method of assessing the readiness of military helicopters operated by the Armed Forces of the Republic of Poland. The readiness of technical objects used in military exploitation systems is a basic indicator of equipment preparation for executing tasks. In exploitation process research, the mathematical models are usually discrete in states and continuous in time stochastic processes, in the set of which Markov models are included. The paper presents an example of using Markov processes with discrete time and with continuous time to assess the readiness of a technical object performing tasks appearing in random moments of time. At the same time, the aim of the examined system to achieve a state of balance is presented

Otimização multi-objetivo em aprendizado de máquina

Orientador: Fernando José Von ZubenTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de ComputaçãoResumo: Regressão logística multinomial regularizada, classificação multi-rótulo e aprendizado multi-tarefa são exemplos de problemas de aprendizado de máquina em que objetivos conflitantes, como funções de perda e penalidades que promovem regularização, devem ser simultaneamente minimizadas. Portanto, a perspectiva simplista de procurar o modelo de aprendizado com o melhor desempenho deve ser substituída pela proposição e subsequente exploração de múltiplos modelos de aprendizado eficientes, cada um caracterizado por um compromisso (trade-off) distinto entre os objetivos conflitantes. Comitês de máquinas e preferências a posteriori do tomador de decisão podem ser implementadas visando explorar adequadamente este conjunto diverso de modelos de aprendizado eficientes, em busca de melhoria de desempenho. A estrutura conceitual multi-objetivo para aprendizado de máquina é suportada por três etapas: (1) Modelagem multi-objetivo de cada problema de aprendizado, destacando explicitamente os objetivos conflitantes envolvidos; (2) Dada a formulação multi-objetivo do problema de aprendizado, por exemplo, considerando funções de perda e termos de penalização como objetivos conflitantes, soluções eficientes e bem distribuídas ao longo da fronteira de Pareto são obtidas por um solver determinístico e exato denominado NISE (do inglês Non-Inferior Set Estimation); (3) Esses modelos de aprendizado eficientes são então submetidos a um processo de seleção de modelos que opera com preferências a posteriori, ou a filtragem e agregação para a síntese de ensembles. Como o NISE é restrito a problemas de dois objetivos, uma extensão do NISE capaz de lidar com mais de dois objetivos, denominada MONISE (do inglês Many-Objective NISE), também é proposta aqui, sendo uma contribuição adicional que expande a aplicabilidade da estrutura conceitual proposta. Para atestar adequadamente o mérito da nossa abordagem multi-objetivo, foram realizadas investigações mais específicas, restritas à aprendizagem de modelos lineares regularizados: (1) Qual é o mérito relativo da seleção a posteriori de um único modelo de aprendizado, entre os produzidos pela nossa proposta, quando comparado com outras abordagens de modelo único na literatura? (2) O nível de diversidade dos modelos de aprendizado produzidos pela nossa proposta é superior àquele alcançado por abordagens alternativas dedicadas à geração de múltiplos modelos de aprendizado? (3) E quanto à qualidade de predição da filtragem e agregação dos modelos de aprendizado produzidos pela nossa proposta quando aplicados a: (i) classificação multi-classe, (ii) classificação desbalanceada, (iii) classificação multi-rótulo, (iv) aprendizado multi-tarefa, (v) aprendizado com multiplos conjuntos de atributos? A natureza determinística de NISE e MONISE, sua capacidade de lidar adequadamente com a forma da fronteira de Pareto em cada problema de aprendizado, e a garantia de sempre obter modelos de aprendizado eficientes são aqui pleiteados como responsáveis pelos resultados promissores alcançados em todas essas três frentes de investigação específicasAbstract: Regularized multinomial logistic regression, multi-label classification, and multi-task learning are examples of machine learning problems in which conflicting objectives, such as losses and regularization penalties, should be simultaneously minimized. Therefore, the narrow perspective of looking for the learning model with the best performance should be replaced by the proposition and further exploration of multiple efficient learning models, each one characterized by a distinct trade-off among the conflicting objectives. Committee machines and a posteriori preferences of the decision-maker may be implemented to properly explore this diverse set of efficient learning models toward performance improvement. The whole multi-objective framework for machine learning is supported by three stages: (1) The multi-objective modelling of each learning problem, explicitly highlighting the conflicting objectives involved; (2) Given the multi-objective formulation of the learning problem, for instance, considering loss functions and penalty terms as conflicting objective functions, efficient solutions well-distributed along the Pareto front are obtained by a deterministic and exact solver named NISE (Non-Inferior Set Estimation); (3) Those efficient learning models are then subject to a posteriori model selection, or to ensemble filtering and aggregation. Given that NISE is restricted to two objective functions, an extension for many objectives, named MONISE (Many Objective NISE), is also proposed here, being an additional contribution and expanding the applicability of the proposed framework. To properly access the merit of our multi-objective approach, more specific investigations were conducted, restricted to regularized linear learning models: (1) What is the relative merit of the a posteriori selection of a single learning model, among the ones produced by our proposal, when compared with other single-model approaches in the literature? (2) Is the diversity level of the learning models produced by our proposal higher than the diversity level achieved by alternative approaches devoted to generating multiple learning models? (3) What about the prediction quality of ensemble filtering and aggregation of the learning models produced by our proposal on: (i) multi-class classification, (ii) unbalanced classification, (iii) multi-label classification, (iv) multi-task learning, (v) multi-view learning? The deterministic nature of NISE and MONISE, their ability to properly deal with the shape of the Pareto front in each learning problem, and the guarantee of always obtaining efficient learning models are advocated here as being responsible for the promising results achieved in all those three specific investigationsDoutoradoEngenharia de ComputaçãoDoutor em Engenharia Elétrica2014/13533-0FAPES