1,763 research outputs found
Scalable Multiagent Planning using Probabilistic Inference
Multiagent planning has seen much progress with the development of formal models such as Dec-POMDPs. However, the complexity of these models—NEXP-Complete even for two agents— has limited scalability. We identify certain mild conditions that are sufficient to make multiagent planning amenable to a scalable approximation w.r.t. the number of agents. This is achieved by constructing a graphical model in which likelihood maximization is equivalent to plan optimization. Using the Expectation-Maximization framework for likelihood maximization, we show that the necessary inference can be decomposed into processes that often involve a small subset of agents, thereby facilitating scalability. We derive a global update rule that combines these local inferences to monotonically increase the overall solution quality. Experiments on a large multiagent planning benchmark confirm the benefits of the new approach in terms of runtime and scalability.
Exploiting Anonymity in Approximate Linear Programming: Scaling to Large Multiagent MDPs (Extended Version)
Many exact and approximate solution methods for Markov Decision Processes
(MDPs) attempt to exploit structure in the problem and are based on
factorization of the value function. Especially multiagent settings, however,
are known to suffer from an exponential increase in value component sizes as
interactions become denser, meaning that approximation architectures are
restricted in the problem sizes and types they can handle. We present an
approach to mitigate this limitation for certain types of multiagent systems,
exploiting a property that can be thought of as "anonymous influence" in the
factored MDP. Anonymous influence summarizes joint variable effects efficiently
whenever the explicit representation of variable identity in the problem can be
avoided. We show how representational benefits from anonymity translate into
computational efficiencies, both for general variable elimination in a factor
graph but in particular also for the approximate linear programming solution to
factored MDPs. The latter allows to scale linear programming to factored MDPs
that were previously unsolvable. Our results are shown for the control of a
stochastic disease process over a densely connected graph with 50 nodes and 25
agents.Comment: Extended version of AAAI 2016 pape
Influence-Optimistic Local Values for Multiagent Planning --- Extended Version
Recent years have seen the development of methods for multiagent planning
under uncertainty that scale to tens or even hundreds of agents. However, most
of these methods either make restrictive assumptions on the problem domain, or
provide approximate solutions without any guarantees on quality. Methods in the
former category typically build on heuristic search using upper bounds on the
value function. Unfortunately, no techniques exist to compute such upper bounds
for problems with non-factored value functions. To allow for meaningful
benchmarking through measurable quality guarantees on a very general class of
problems, this paper introduces a family of influence-optimistic upper bounds
for factored decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes
(Dec-POMDPs) that do not have factored value functions. Intuitively, we derive
bounds on very large multiagent planning problems by subdividing them in
sub-problems, and at each of these sub-problems making optimistic assumptions
with respect to the influence that will be exerted by the rest of the system.
We numerically compare the different upper bounds and demonstrate how we can
achieve a non-trivial guarantee that a heuristic solution for problems with
hundreds of agents is close to optimal. Furthermore, we provide evidence that
the upper bounds may improve the effectiveness of heuristic influence search,
and discuss further potential applications to multiagent planning.Comment: Long version of IJCAI 2015 paper (and extended abstract at AAMAS
2015
Probabilistic Inference Techniques for Scalable Multiagent Decision Making
Decentralized POMDPs provide an expressive framework for multiagent sequential decision making. However, the complexity of these models—NEXP-Complete even for two agents—has limited their scalability. We present a promising new class of approxima-tion algorithms by developing novel connections between multiagent planning and machine learning. We show how the multiagent planning problem can be reformulated as inference in a mixture of dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). This planning-as-inference approach paves the way for the application of efficient inference techniques in DBNs to multiagent decision making. To further improve scalability, we identify certain conditions that are sufficient to extend the approach to multiagent systems with dozens of agents. Specifically, we show that the necessary inference within the expectation-maximization framework can be decomposed into processes that often involve a small subset of agents, thereby facilitating scalability. We further show that a number of existing multiagent planning models satisfy these conditions. Experiments on large planning benchmarks confirm the benefits of our approach in terms of runtime and scalability with respect to existing techniques
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