Health concerns of Iranian adolescents: Protocol for a mixed methods study

Background: Adolescents have particular health and developmental needs that suggest they should neither be treated as older children nor younger adults. Objectives: The aim of this paper is to report the protocol for a mixed methods study that set out to investigate the health concerns of Iranian adolescents and their sources of health information with the goal of identifying suitable strategies to address their health concerns. Materials and Methods: This mixed methods study consists of an explanatory sequential design to be conducted in two phases. The first phase was a population-based cross-sectional survey of 915, 14-18 year old adolescents who were selected by stratified cluster random sampling method from the 22 main municipal sectors of Tehran, Iran. They completed a series of self-administered questionnaires which were analyzed using quantitative approaches. The second phase was a qualitative study in which adolescents were selected using purposeful sampling for individual in-depth semi-structured interviews on the basis of the quantitative findings from the first phase. These data, together with a literature review and data obtained through nominal group technique, would then be used to in the development of strategies to reduce adolescents' health concerns. Results: The findings of this mixed methods sequential explanatory study are expected to provide unique information about the health concerns of Iranian adolescents and their sources of information, which to date have received little attention. Conclusions: These data will provide a rich source of information that can be used by intervention programs, health professionals and policy makers in addressing the health concerns of adolescents, with the goal of facilitating a successful passage to adult life. © 2014, Iranian Red Crescent Medical Journal

Small-scale intraspecific life history variation in herbivorous spider mites (Tetranychus pacificus) is associated with host plant cultivar.

Life history variation is a general feature of arthropod systems, but is rarely included in models of field or laboratory data. Most studies assume that local processes occur identically across individuals, ignoring any genetic or phenotypic variation in life history traits. In this study, we tested whether field populations of Pacific spider mites (Tetranychus pacificus) on grapevines (Vitis vinifera) display significant intraspecific life history variation associated with host plant cultivar. To address this question we collected individuals from sympatric vineyard populations where either Zinfandel or Chardonnay were grown. We then conducted a "common garden experiment" of mites on bean plants (Phaseolus lunatus) in the laboratory. Assay populations were sampled non-destructively with digital photography to quantify development times, survival, and reproductive rates. Two classes of models were fit to the data: standard generalized linear mixed models and a time-to-event model, common in survival analysis, that allowed for interval-censored data and hierarchical random effects. We found a significant effect of cultivar on development time in both GLMM and time-to-event analyses, a slight cultivar effect on juvenile survival, and no effect on reproductive rate. There were shorter development times and a trend towards higher juvenile survival in populations from Zinfandel vineyards compared to those from Chardonnay vineyards. Lines of the same species, originating from field populations on different host plant cultivars, expressed different development times and slightly different survival rates when reared on a common host plant in a common environment

Coherent States Formulation of Polymer Field Theory

We introduce a stable and efficient complex Langevin (CL) scheme to enable the first numerical simulations of the coherent-states (CS) formulation of polymer field theory. In contrast with Edwards' well known auxiliary-field (AF) framework, the CS formulation does not contain an embedded non-linear, non-local functional of the auxiliary fields, and the action of the field theory has a fully explicit, finite-order and semi-local polynomial character. In the context of a polymer solution model, we demonstrate that the new CS-CL dynamical scheme for sampling fluctuations in the space of coherent states yields results in good agreement with now-standard AF simulations. The formalism is potentially applicable to a broad range of polymer architectures and may facilitate systematic generation of trial actions for use in coarse-graining and numerical renormalization-group studies.Comment: 14pages 8 figure

Mapping of Aedes albopictus abundance at a local scale in Italy

Given the growing risk of arbovirus outbreaks in Europe, there is a clear need to better describe the distribution of invasive mosquito species such as Aedes albopictus. Current challenges consist in simulating Ae. albopictus abundance, rather than its presence, and mapping its simulated abundance at a local scale to better assess the transmission risk of mosquito-borne pathogens and optimize mosquito control strategy. During 2014–2015, we sampled adult mosquitoes using 72 BG-Sentinel traps per year in the provinces of Belluno and Trento, Italy. We found that the sum of Ae. albopictus females collected during eight trap nights from June to September was positively related to the mean temperature of the warmest quarter and the percentage of artificial areas in a 250 m buffer around the sampling locations. Maps of Ae. albopictus abundance simulated from the most parsimonious model in the study area showed the largest populations in highly artificial areas with the highest summer temperatures, but with a high uncertainty due to the variability of the trapping collections. Vector abundance maps at a local scale should be promoted to support stakeholders and policy-makers in optimizing vector surveillance and control

Inferring the photometric and size evolution of galaxies from image simulations

Current constraints on models of galaxy evolution rely on morphometric catalogs extracted from multi-band photometric surveys. However, these catalogs are altered by selection effects that are difficult to model, that correlate in non trivial ways, and that can lead to contradictory predictions if not taken into account carefully. To address this issue, we have developed a new approach combining parametric Bayesian indirect likelihood (pBIL) techniques and empirical modeling with realistic image simulations that reproduce a large fraction of these selection effects. This allows us to perform a direct comparison between observed and simulated images and to infer robust constraints on model parameters. We use a semi-empirical forward model to generate a distribution of mock galaxies from a set of physical parameters. These galaxies are passed through an image simulator reproducing the instrumental characteristics of any survey and are then extracted in the same way as the observed data. The discrepancy between the simulated and observed data is quantified, and minimized with a custom sampling process based on adaptive Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods. Using synthetic data matching most of the properties of a CFHTLS Deep field, we demonstrate the robustness and internal consistency of our approach by inferring the parameters governing the size and luminosity functions and their evolutions for different realistic populations of galaxies. We also compare the results of our approach with those obtained from the classical spectral energy distribution fitting and photometric redshift approach.Our pipeline infers efficiently the luminosity and size distribution and evolution parameters with a very limited number of observables (3 photometric bands). When compared to SED fitting based on the same set of observables, our method yields results that are more accurate and free from systematic biases.Comment: 24 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Hierarchical models for semi-competing risks data with application to quality of end-of-life care for pancreatic cancer

Readmission following discharge from an initial hospitalization is a key marker of quality of health care in the United States. For the most part, readmission has been used to study quality of care for patients with acute health conditions, such as pneumonia and heart failure, with analyses typically based on a logistic-Normal generalized linear mixed model. Applying this model to the study readmission among patients with increasingly prevalent advanced health conditions such as pancreatic cancer is problematic, however, because it ignores death as a competing risk. A more appropriate analysis is to imbed such studies within the semi-competing risks framework. To our knowledge, however, no comprehensive statistical methods have been developed for cluster-correlated semi-competing risks data. In this paper we propose a novel hierarchical modeling framework for the analysis of cluster-correlated semi-competing risks data. The framework permits parametric or non-parametric specifications for a range of model components, including baseline hazard functions and distributions for key random effects, giving analysts substantial flexibility as they consider their own analyses. Estimation and inference is performed within the Bayesian paradigm since it facilitates the straightforward characterization of (posterior) uncertainty for all model parameters including hospital-specific random effects. The proposed framework is used to study the risk of readmission among 5,298 Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with pancreatic cancer at 112 hospitals in the six New England states between 2000-2009, specifically to investigate the role of patient-level risk factors and to characterize variation in risk across hospitals that is not explained by differences in patient case-mix

Sampling design may obscure species–area relationships in landscape-scale field studies

We investigated 1) the role of area per se in explaining anuran species richness on reservoir forest islands, after controlling for several confounding factors. We also assessed 2) how sampling design affects the inferential power of island species–area relationships (ISARs) aiming to 3) provide guidelines to yield reliable estimates of area-induced species losses in patchy systems. We surveyed anurans with autonomous recording units at 151 plots located on 74 islands and four continuous forest sites at the Balbina Hydroelectric Reservoir landscape, central Brazilian Amazonia. We applied semi-log ISAR models to assess the effect of sampling design on the fit and slope of species–area curves. To do so, we subsampled our surveyed islands following both a 1) stratified and 2) non-stratified random selection of 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 islands covering 1) the full range in island size (0.45–1699 ha) and 2) only islands smaller than 100 ha, respectively. We also compiled 25 datasets from the literature to assess the generality of our findings. Island size explained ca half of the variation in species richness. The fit and slope of species–area curves were affected mainly by the range in island size considered, and to a very small extent by the number of islands surveyed. In our literature review, all datasets covering a range of patch sizes larger than 300 ha yielded a positive ISAR, whereas the number of patches alone did not affect the detection of ISARs. We conclude that 1) area per se plays a major role in explaining anuran species richness on forest islands within an Amazonian anthropogenic archipelago; 2) the inferential power of island species–area relationships is severely degraded by sub-optimal sampling designs; 3) at least 10 habitat patches spanning three orders of magnitude in size should be surveyed to yield reliable species–area estimates in patchy systems

Semi-automatic selection of summary statistics for ABC model choice

A central statistical goal is to choose between alternative explanatory models of data. In many modern applications, such as population genetics, it is not possible to apply standard methods based on evaluating the likelihood functions of the models, as these are numerically intractable. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a commonly used alternative for such situations. ABC simulates data x for many parameter values under each model, which is compared to the observed data xobs. More weight is placed on models under which S(x) is close to S(xobs), where S maps data to a vector of summary statistics. Previous work has shown the choice of S is crucial to the efficiency and accuracy of ABC. This paper provides a method to select good summary statistics for model choice. It uses a preliminary step, simulating many x values from all models and fitting regressions to this with the model as response. The resulting model weight estimators are used as S in an ABC analysis. Theoretical results are given to justify this as approximating low dimensional sufficient statistics. A substantive application is presented: choosing between competing coalescent models of demographic growth for Campylobacter jejuni in New Zealand using multi-locus sequence typing data