A Bayesian Framework for Estimating Seismic Wave Arrival Time

Because earthquakes have a large impact on human society, statistical methods for better studying earthquakes are required. One characteristic of earthquakes is the arrival time of seismic waves at a seismic signal sensor. Once we can estimate the earthquake arrival time accurately, the earthquake location can be triangulated, and assistance can be sent to that area correctly. This study presents a Bayesian framework to predict the arrival time of seismic waves with associated uncertainty. We use a change point framework to model the different conditions before and after the seismic wave arrives. To evaluate the performance of the model, we conducted a simulation study where we could evaluate the predictive performance of the model framework. The results show that our method has acceptable performance of arrival time prediction with accounting for the uncertainty

A Mixed-Effects Location Scale Model for Dyadic Interactions.

We present a mixed-effects location scale model (MELSM) for examining the daily dynamics of affect in dyads. The MELSM includes person and time-varying variables to predict the location, or individual means, and the scale, or within-person variances. It also incorporates a submodel to account for between-person variances. The dyadic specification can accommodate individual and partner effects in both the location and the scale components, and allows random effects for all location and scale parameters. All covariances among the random effects, within and across the location and the scale are also estimated. These covariances offer new insights into the interplay of individual mean structures, intra-individual variability, and the influence of partner effects on such factors. To illustrate the model, we use data from 274 couples who provided daily ratings on their positive and negative emotions toward their relationship - up to 90 consecutive days. The model is fit using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods, and includes subsets of predictors in order to demonstrate the flexibility of this approach. We conclude with a discussion on the usefulness and the limitations of the MELSM for dyadic research