Temporal Gillespie algorithm: Fast simulation of contagion processes on time-varying networks

Stochastic simulations are one of the cornerstones of the analysis of dynamical processes on complex networks, and are often the only accessible way to explore their behavior. The development of fast algorithms is paramount to allow large-scale simulations. The Gillespie algorithm can be used for fast simulation of stochastic processes, and variants of it have been applied to simulate dynamical processes on static networks. However, its adaptation to temporal networks remains non-trivial. We here present a temporal Gillespie algorithm that solves this problem. Our method is applicable to general Poisson (constant-rate) processes on temporal networks, stochastically exact, and up to multiple orders of magnitude faster than traditional simulation schemes based on rejection sampling. We also show how it can be extended to simulate non-Markovian processes. The algorithm is easily applicable in practice, and as an illustration we detail how to simulate both Poissonian and non-Markovian models of epidemic spreading. Namely, we provide pseudocode and its implementation in C++ for simulating the paradigmatic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered models and a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model with non-constant recovery rates. For empirical networks, the temporal Gillespie algorithm is here typically from 10 to 100 times faster than rejection sampling.Comment: Minor changes and updates to reference

Equational Reasonings in Wireless Network Gossip Protocols

Gossip protocols have been proposed as a robust and efficient method for disseminating information throughout large-scale networks. In this paper, we propose a compositional analysis technique to study formal probabilistic models of gossip protocols expressed in a simple probabilistic timed process calculus for wireless sensor networks. We equip the calculus with a simulation theory to compare probabilistic protocols that have similar behaviour up to a certain tolerance. The theory is used to prove a number of algebraic laws which revealed to be very effective to estimate the performances of gossip networks, with and without communication collisions, and randomised gossip networks. Our simulation theory is an asymmetric variant of the weak bisimulation metric that maintains most of the properties of the original definition. However, our asymmetric version is particularly suitable to reason on protocols in which the systems under consideration are not approximately equivalent, as in the case of gossip protocols

Reduction of Petri net maintenance modeling complexity via Approximate Bayesian Computation

This paper is part of the ENHAnCE ITN project (https://www.h2020-enhanceitn.eu/) funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie SklodowskaCurie grant agreement No. 859957. The authors would like to thank the Lloyd's Register Foundation (LRF), a charitable foundation in the U.K. helping to protect life and property by supporting engineeringrelated education, public engagement, and the application of research. The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of these organizations which have enabled the research reported in this paper.The accurate modeling of engineering systems and processes using Petri nets often results in complex graph representations that are computationally intensive, limiting the potential of this modeling tool in real life applications. This paper presents a methodology to properly define the optimal structure and properties of a reduced Petri net that mimic the output of a reference Petri net model. The methodology is based on Approximate Bayesian Computation to infer the plausible values of the model parameters of the reduced model in a rigorous probabilistic way. Also, the method provides a numerical measure of the level of approximation of the reduced model structure, thus allowing the selection of the optimal reduced structure among a set of potential candidates. The suitability of the proposed methodology is illustrated using a simple illustrative example and a system reliability engineering case study, showing satisfactory results. The results also show that the method allows flexible reduction of the structure of the complex Petri net model taken as reference, and provides numerical justification for the choice of the reduced model structure.European Commission 859957Lloyd's Register Foundation (LRF), a charitable foundation in the U.K

Exploiting Prior Knowledge in Compressed Sensing Wireless ECG Systems

Recent results in telecardiology show that compressed sensing (CS) is a promising tool to lower energy consumption in wireless body area networks for electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring. However, the performance of current CS-based algorithms, in terms of compression rate and reconstruction quality of the ECG, still falls short of the performance attained by state-of-the-art wavelet based algorithms. In this paper, we propose to exploit the structure of the wavelet representation of the ECG signal to boost the performance of CS-based methods for compression and reconstruction of ECG signals. More precisely, we incorporate prior information about the wavelet dependencies across scales into the reconstruction algorithms and exploit the high fraction of common support of the wavelet coefficients of consecutive ECG segments. Experimental results utilizing the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database show that significant performance gains, in terms of compression rate and reconstruction quality, can be obtained by the proposed algorithms compared to current CS-based methods.Comment: Accepted for publication at IEEE Journal of Biomedical and Health Informatic