Classification of clinical outcomes using high-throughput and clinical informatics.

It is widely recognized that many cancer therapies are effective only for a subset of patients. However clinical studies are most often powered to detect an overall treatment effect. To address this issue, classification methods are increasingly being used to predict a subset of patients which respond differently to treatment. This study begins with a brief history of classification methods with an emphasis on applications involving melanoma. Nonparametric methods suitable for predicting subsets of patients responding differently to treatment are then reviewed. Each method has different ways of incorporating continuous, categorical, clinical and high-throughput covariates. For nonparametric and parametric methods, distance measures specific to the method are used to make classification decisions. Approaches are outlined which employ these distances to measure treatment interactions and predict patients more sensitive to treatment. Simulations are also carried out to examine empirical power of some of these classification methods in an adaptive signature design. Results were compared with logistic regression models. It was found that parametric and nonparametric methods performed reasonably well. Relative performance of the methods depends on the simulation scenario. Finally a method was developed to evaluate power and sample size needed for an adaptive signature design in order to predict the subset of patients sensitive to treatment. It is hoped that this study will stimulate more development of nonparametric and parametric methods to predict subsets of patients responding differently to treatment

Distance-based analysis of dynamical systems and time series by optimal transport

The concept of distance is a fundamental notion that forms a basis for the orientation in space. It is related to the scientific measurement process: quantitative measurements result in numerical values, and these can be immediately translated into distances. Vice versa, a set of mutual distances defines an abstract Euclidean space. Each system is thereby represented as a point, whose Euclidean distances approximate the original distances as close as possible. If the original distance measures interesting properties, these can be found back as interesting patterns in this space. This idea is applied to complex systems: The act of breathing, the structure and activity of the brain, and dynamical systems and time series in general. In all these situations, optimal transportation distances are used; these measure how much work is needed to transform one probability distribution into another. The reconstructed Euclidean space then permits to apply multivariate statistical methods. In particular, canonical discriminant analysis makes it possible to distinguish between distinct classes of systems, e.g., between healthy and diseased lungs. This offers new diagnostic perspectives in the assessment of lung and brain diseases, and also offers a new approach to numerical bifurcation analysis and to quantify synchronization in dynamical systems.LEI Universiteit LeidenNWO Computational Life Sciences, grant no. 635.100.006Analyse en stochastie