The Empirical Beta Copula

Given a sample from a multivariate distribution $F$, the uniform random variates generated independently and rearranged in the order specified by the componentwise ranks of the original sample look like a sample from the copula of $F$. This idea can be regarded as a variant on Baker's [J. Multivariate Anal. 99 (2008) 2312--2327] copula construction and leads to the definition of the empirical beta copula. The latter turns out to be a particular case of the empirical Bernstein copula, the degrees of all Bernstein polynomials being equal to the sample size. Necessary and sufficient conditions are given for a Bernstein polynomial to be a copula. These imply that the empirical beta copula is a genuine copula. Furthermore, the empirical process based on the empirical Bernstein copula is shown to be asymptotically the same as the ordinary empirical copula process under assumptions which are significantly weaker than those given in Janssen, Swanepoel and Veraverbeke [J. Stat. Plan. Infer. 142 (2012) 1189--1197]. A Monte Carlo simulation study shows that the empirical beta copula outperforms the empirical copula and the empirical checkerboard copula in terms of both bias and variance. Compared with the empirical Bernstein copula with the smoothing rate suggested by Janssen et al., its finite-sample performance is still significantly better in several cases, especially in terms of bias.Comment: 23 pages, 3 figure

Approximate Bayesian inference in semiparametric copula models

We describe a simple method for making inference on a functional of a multivariate distribution. The method is based on a copula representation of the multivariate distribution and it is based on the properties of an Approximate Bayesian Monte Carlo algorithm, where the proposed values of the functional of interest are weighed in terms of their empirical likelihood. This method is particularly useful when the "true" likelihood function associated with the working model is too costly to evaluate or when the working model is only partially specified.Comment: 27 pages, 18 figure

Estimation of Extreme Quantiles for Functions of Dependent Random Variables

We propose a new method for estimating the extreme quantiles for a function of several dependent random variables. In contrast to the conventional approach based on extreme value theory, we do not impose the condition that the tail of the underlying distribution admits an approximate parametric form, and, furthermore, our estimation makes use of the full observed data. The proposed method is semiparametric as no parametric forms are assumed on all the marginal distributions. But we select appropriate bivariate copulas to model the joint dependence structure by taking the advantage of the recent development in constructing large dimensional vine copulas. Consequently a sample quantile resulted from a large bootstrap sample drawn from the fitted joint distribution is taken as the estimator for the extreme quantile. This estimator is proved to be consistent. The reliable and robust performance of the proposed method is further illustrated by simulation.Comment: 18 pages, 2 figure