Reliability-based economic model predictive control for generalized flow-based networks including actuators' health-aware capabilities

This paper proposes a reliability-based economic model predictive control (MPC) strategy for the management of generalized flow-based networks, integrating some ideas on network service reliability, dynamic safety stock planning, and degradation of equipment health. The proposed strategy is based on a single-layer economic optimisation problem with dynamic constraints, which includes two enhancements with respect to existing approaches. The first enhancement considers chance-constraint programming to compute an optimal inventory replenishment policy based on a desired risk acceptability level, leading to dynamically allocate safety stocks in flow-based networks to satisfy non-stationary flow demands. The second enhancement computes a smart distribution of the control effort and maximises actuators’ availability by estimating their degradation and reliability. The proposed approach is illustrated with an application of water transport networks using the Barcelona network as the considered case study.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Combined make-to-order and make-to-stock in a food production system

The research into multi-product production/inventory control systems has mainly assumed one of the two strategies: Make-to-Order (MTO) or Make-to-Stock (MTS). In practice, however, many companies cater to an increasing variety of products with varying logistical demands (e.g. short due dates, specific products) and production characteristics (e.g. capacity usage, setup) to different market segments and so they are moving to more MTO-production. As a consequence they operate under a hybrid MTO-MTS strategy. Important issues arising out of such situations are, for example, which products should be manufactured to stock and which ones on order and, how to allocate capacity among various MTO-MTS products. This paper presents the state-of-the-art literature review of the combined MTO-MTS production situations. A variety of production management issues in the context of food processing companies, where combined MTO-MTS production is quite common, are discussed in details. The authors propose a comprehensive hierarchical planning framework that covers the important production management decisions to serve as a starting point for evaluation and further research on the planning system for MTO-MTS situations.

Integration of demand management and production planning in a batch process manufacturing system: Case study

Production Planning;Batch Production;production

Inventory drivers in a pharmaceutical supply chain

In recent years, inventory reduction has been a key objective of pharmaceutical companies, especially within cost optimization initiatives. Pharmaceutical supply chains are characterized by volatile and unpredictable demands –especially in emergent markets-, high service levels, and complex, perishable finished-good portfolios, which makes keeping reasonable amounts of stock a true challenge. However, a one-way strategy towards zero-inventory is in reality inapplicable, due to the strategic nature and importance of the products being commercialised. Therefore, pharmaceutical supply chains are in need of new inventory strategies in order to remain competitive. Finished-goods inventory management in the pharmaceutical industry is closely related to the manufacturing systems and supply chain configurations that companies adopt. The factors considered in inventory management policies, however, do not always cover the full supply chain spectrum in which companies operate. This paper works under the pre-assumption that, in fact, there is a complex relationship between the inventory configurations that companies adopt and the factors behind them. The intention of this paper is to understand the factors driving high finished-goods inventory levels in pharmaceutical supply chains and assist supply chain managers in determining which of them can be influenced in order to reduce inventories to an optimal degree. Reasons for reducing inventory levels are found in high inventory holding and scrap related costs; in addition to lost sales for not being able to serve the customers with the adequate shelf life requirements. The thesis conducts a single case study research in a multi-national pharmaceutical company, which is used to examine typical inventory configurations and the factors affecting these configurations. This paper presents a framework that can assist supply chain managers in determining the most important inventory drivers in pharmaceutical supply chains. The findings in this study suggest that while external and downstream supply chain factors are recognized as being critical to pursue inventory optimization initiatives, pharmaceutical companies are oriented towards optimizing production processes and meeting regulatory requirements while still complying with high service levels, being internal factors the ones prevailing when making inventory management decisions. Furthermore, this paper investigates, through predictive modelling techniques, how various intrinsic and extrinsic factors influence the inventory configurations of the case study company. The study shows that inventory configurations are relatively unstable over time, especially in configurations that present high safety stock levels; and that production features and product characteristics are important explanatory factors behind high inventory levels. Regulatory requirements also play an important role in explaining the high strategic inventory levels that pharmaceutical companies hold

Judgement and supply chain dynamics

Forecasting demand at the individual stock-keeping-unit (SKU) level often necessitates the use of statistical methods, such as exponential smoothing. In some organizations, however, statistical forecasts will be subject to judgemental adjustments by managers. Although a number of empirical and ‘laboratory’ studies have been performed in this area, no formal OR modelling has been conducted to offer insights into the impact such adjustments may have on supply chain performance and the potential development of mitigation mechanisms. This is because of the associated dynamic complexity and the situation-specific nature of the problem at hand. In conjunction with appropriate stock control rules, demand forecasts help decide how much to order. It is a common practice that replenishment orders may also be subject to judgemental intervention, adding further to the dynamic system complexity and interdependence. The system dynamics (SD) modelling method can help advance knowledge in this area, where mathematical modelling cannot accommodate the associated complexity. This study, which constitutes part of a UK government funded (EPSRC) project, uses SD models to evaluate the effects of forecasting and ordering adjustments for a wide set of scenarios involving: three different inventory policies; seven different (combinations of) points of intervention; and four different (combinations of) types of judgmental intervention (optimistic and pessimistic). The results enable insights to be gained into the performance of the entire supply chain. An agenda for further research concludes the paper

A hybrid bi-objective optimization approach for joint determination of safety stock and safety time buffers in multi-item single-stage industrial supply chains

In material requirements planning (MRP) systems, safety stock and safety time are two well-known inventory buffering strategies to protect against supply and demand uncertainties. While the role of safety stocks in coping with uncertainty is well studied, safety time has received only scarce attention in the supply chain management literature. Particularly, most previous operations research models have typically considered the use of such inventory buffers in a separate fashion, but not together. Here, we propose a decision support system (DSS) to address the problem of integrating optimal safety stock and safety time decisions at the component level, in multi-supplier multi-item single-stage industrial supply chains under dynamic demands and stochastic lead times. The DSS is based on a hybrid bi-objective optimization approach that simultaneously optimizes upstream inventory holding costs and β-service levels, suggesting multiple non-dominated Pareto-optimal solutions to decision-makers. We further explore a weighted closed-form analytical expression to select a single Pareto-optimal point from a set of non-dominated solutions, thereby enhancing the practical application of the proposed DSS. We describe the implementation of our approach in a major automotive electronics company operating under a myriad of components with dynamic demand, uncertain supply and requirements plans with different degrees of sparsity. We show the potential of our approach to improve β-service levels while minimizing inventory-related costs. The results suggest that, in certain cases, it appears to be more cost-effective to combine safety stock with safety time compared to considering each inventory buffer independently.This work has been supported by the European Structural and Investment Funds in the FEDER component, through the Operational Competitiveness and Internationalization Pro-gram (COMPETE 2020) [Project No. 39479, Funding reference: POCI-01–0247-FEDER-39479]

The impact of nonlinear dynamics on the resilience of a grocery supply chain

Purpose of this paper: In an effort to improve operational and logistical efficiencies, UK grocery retailers combined primary and secondary distribution increasing the importance of designing resilient replenishment systems in the distribution centre. This paper has the purpose to analyse the resilience performance of the distribution centre stock ordering system within a grocery retailer. Design/methodology/approach: A system dynamics approach is used for framing and building a credible representation of the real system. Mathematical analysis of the nonlinear model based on nonlinear control engineering techniques in combination with system dynamics simulation have been used to understand the behaviour of stock and shipment output responses in the distribution centre given step and periodic demand signals. Findings: Preliminary mathematical analysis through nonlinear control theory techniques has been undertaken in order to gain initial insights in the understanding of the replenishment control model. This practice allowed the researcher to identify specific behaviour change in the DC stock and shipment responses, which are key indicators for assessing supply chain resilience, without going through a time-consuming simulation process. Transfer function analysis and describing function serve as a guideline for undertaking system dynamics simulation. Value: This paper aims to fill the gap in the literature of supply chain resilience by using quantitative system dynamics methods to assess the resilience performance of a grocery retailer. In this way, we also supplement the literature with empirical data. Moreover, we explore different analytical methods since simulation is the predominant method for quantitative analysis of system dynamics. Research limitations/implications (if applicable): This research is limited to the dynamics of single-echelon supply chain systems. Although the EPOS sales data and the store replenishment system have been considered in the validation process, this study has focused on analysing the resilience performance of the DC replenishment system only. Considering the multi-echelon supply chain is intended for further research activities. Practical implications (if applicable): The findings suggest that the distribution centre replenishment system can be re-designed in order to improve the supply chain resilience performance. The ‘As Is’ scenario produces slow response of stock levels and inventory targets are never recovered due to a permanent offset