UN Peace Operations and Intelligence : Can the Joint Mission Analysis Center succeed?

Can the Joint Mission Analysis Center (JMAC), as the dedicated and fielded UN intelligence capability, mitigate challenges in providing the United Nations (UN) Mission Leadership Team (MLT) intelligence that ultimately will improve the decision making process and enhance the ability of the UN to fulfill the will of the international community? Throughout this paper, this is the driving question. To address the question, the paper explores the JMAC concept as described in UN policy and guidelines as well as experiences of UN peace operations1 in the 21st century and particularly the ongoing operations in Mali and South Sudan. The paper will identify challenges that UN peace operations in general, and Mali and South Sudan specifically, have experienced. If the JMAC proves capable of mitigating these challenges properly, the JMAC concept can succeed. UN peace operations have experienced a transitional development from peacekeeping operations under chapter VI of the UN Charter towards more peace enforcement and protection of civilians in line with chapter VII. Both operations require analyzed information2 and information sharing at various levels, with various means, different actors, mandates and perceptions. There is extensive literature elaborating on Intelligence and the UN. Recently, the UN has produced Guidelines and Policy describing the role of intelligence and the JMAC, which, in combination with document studies and interviews, will serve as a theoretical basis for this paper. There have, furthermore, been several studies of JMACs in UN peace operation missions identifying numerous challenges. This study, however, might enhance our understanding of Intelligence in UN peace operations and to what extent the JMAC, using the Intelligence Cycle as a framework, is able to address intelligence challenges in the UN. Throughout the paper, and the discussion, the challenges are elaborated and discussed as to whether they pose limitations or possibilities for the JMAC to succeed in UN peace operations. The findings from the research indicates that, though the JMAC concept has vastly enhanced UN capabilities in peace operations, there are some grave challenges that cannot be addressed by the JMAC alone. Intelligence in the UN is contested with a lack of coherent terminology complicating the understanding and discussion. Furthermore, intelligence in the UN and all the steps in the Intelligence Cycle, can be more effectively addressed if there is a responsible and accountable strategic entity that ensures information sharing at all levels from the field to New York. The paper concludes that the JMAC cannot mitigate key UN Intelligence challenges, realize its potential and succeed without an overarching intelligence body

Developing Industry Policies to Mitigate Terrorists’ Misuse of Social Media Platforms

Radical Islamic militant groups, particularly Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS), have utilized social media platforms for networking, recruitment, fundraising, information gathering, training, and planning attacks. The problem was that social media platforms, particularly Facebook, Telegram, Twitter, and YouTube, were not equipped with industry policies to provide a standardized response to terrorist misuse of social media and encryption platforms. The present study was needed because the lack of a unified response system has increased corporate liability, threatened national security, and enabled terrorist growth globally. The purpose of this study was to develop industry policies based on existing corporate policies so that platforms can implement standardized responses to terrorist misuse. This study was developed within the framework of social movement theory (SMT). Two research questions addressed ways in which social media companies responded to the misuse of their platforms by terrorist groups, whether industry policies could be produced from existing platform responses to form standardized policies to the misuse of social media by terrorists. A qualitative multiple case design was used to collect, code, and analyze open-source data using NVivo. Six themes that emerged were government collaboration, new regulation, greater platform responsibility, content removal, consequences, and policy changes. Recommendations included building policies on the strengths of existing platform policies and on the groundwork of peer-reviewed literature and NGOs. Resulting policies could facilitate positive social change by providing a blueprint for newer platforms, contributing to government efforts, and disrupting terrorist misuse

Access Control for IoT: Problems and Solutions in the Smart Home

The Internet of Things (IoT) is receiving considerable amount of attention from both industry and academia due to the business models that it enables and the radical changes it introduced in the way people interact with technology. The widespread adaption of IoT in our everyday life generates new security and privacy challenges. In this thesis, we focus on "access control in IoT": one of the key security services that ensures the correct functioning of the entire IoT system. We highlight the key differences with access control in traditional systems (such as databases, operating systems, or web services) and describe a set of requirements that any access control system for IoT should fulfill. We demonstrate that the requirements are adaptable to a wide range of IoT use case scenarios by validating the requirements for access control elicited when analyzing the smart lock system as sample use case from smart home scenario. We also utilize the CAP theorem for reasoning about access control systems designed for the IoT. We introduce MQTT Security Assistant (MQTTSA), a tool that automatically detects misconfigurations in MQTT-based IoT deployments. To assist IoT system developers, MQTTSA produces a report outlining detected vulnerabilities, together with (high level) hints and code snippets to implement adequate mitigations. The effectiveness of the tool is assessed by a thorough experimental evaluation. Then, we propose a lazy approach to Access Control as a Service (ACaaS) that allows the specification and management of policies independently of the Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) while leveraging its enforcement mechanisms. We demonstrate the approach by investigating (also experimentally) alternative deployments in the IoT platform offered by Amazon Web Services on a realistic smart lock solution

THE ANALYTICS QUOTIENT: RETOOLING CIVIL AFFAIRS FOR THE FUTURE OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Historically, military intelligence analysts and U.S. forces, frozen in their preferred strategy of attrition warfare, have undervalued civil information in conflicts against irregular threats. As operating environments grow more complex, uncertain, and population-centric, the roles of Civil Affairs Forces and civil information will become increasingly relevant. Unfortunately, the current analytical methods prescribed in Civil Affairs doctrine are inadequate for evaluating complex environments. They fail to provide supported commanders with the information required to make informed decisions. The purpose of this research is to determine how Civil Affairs Forces must retool their analytical capabilities to meet the demands of future operating environments. The answer lies in developing an organic Civil Affairs analytic capability suitable for employing data-driven approaches to gain actionable insights into uncertain operational environments, and subsequently, integrating those insights into sophisticated operational targeting frameworks and strategies designed to disrupt irregular threats. This research uses case studies of organizations, across a range of industries, that leveraged innovative data-driven approaches into disruptive competitive advantages. These organizations highlight the broad utility of the prescribed approaches and potential pathways for Civil Affairs Forces to pursue in creating an analytic capability that supports effective civil knowledge integration.http://archive.org/details/theanalyticsquot1094564891Major, United States ArmyApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

ANALYZING KEY COMMUNICATORS

As history has shown, members of social groups trust select individuals who can access information and provide persuasive perspectives. Known by the Department of Defense as key communicators, these personalities maintain a great deal of influence deriving their authority from various official, cultural, religious, and social statuses within their respective communities. Although psychological operations and other national security personnel understand their value, current government training and processes do not adequately address the need for effective analysis of key communicators. The purpose of this research is to develop a foundational PSYOP analytical process to improve how practitioners select key communicators to support military objectives. Drawing from academic theories, scientific processes, and the experience of military service members, how can PSYOP personnel analyze key communicators to leverage their social networks? The research reviewed relevant theories, systems, processes, techniques, and procedures to develop the key communicator analytical process (KCAP). This process and its associated tool were designed to guide practitioners as they identify, categorize, organize, visualize, and evaluate relevant qualitative and quantitative communicator and audience variables to yield an appropriate index score with which to compare against others. Finally, this tool was applied to a historical case study to validate its functionality in future operational settings.Major, United States ArmyMajor, United States ArmyMajor, United States ArmyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

SOCIAL MOVEMENTS IN IRREGULAR WARFARE

Many influence professionals within the U.S. Department of Defense are aware of the power of social movements, but current training and doctrine does not address the key components that affect the success of a movement. When successful, social movements have been an effective driving force to enact change in their respective societies. Change can be seen in the form of major policy changes or, in some instances, a full transfer of power. Regardless of outcome, however, social movements are characterized by the social and political instability that accompanies them. In an era of intense global competition, the U.S. should leverage all mechanisms of competition to combat its adversaries. The purpose of this research is to examine the variables both quantitative and qualitative that influence a movements probability of success. This research identifies key variables that influence practitioners should consider and evaluate prior to committing support to a movement organization. Furthermore, this research supports the idea that non-violent action may be a better alternative to compete with US adversaries in environments with little to no U.S. presence.Major, United States ArmyMajor, United States ArmyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

CONDITIONING DEMOCRATIZATION: EU MEMBERSHIP CONDITIONALITY AND DOMESTIC POLITICS IN BALKAN INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS

The uneven effects of EU membership conditionality on Eastern European reforms continue to puzzle the research community. Sometimes, the research focus has been too large, considering EU membership conditionality as a policy implemented uniformly across policy areas. Other efforts take a too narrow approach by trying to explain the effects of EU membership conditionality in single sectors. I suggest studying this phenomenon through a set of mid-level theories in a cross-country, cross-sectorial approach. I argue that both the intensity of EU membership conditionality and reform outcomes are contingent upon the policy sector context; hence, we should take a sectorial contextual approach in studying them. Reform outcomes result from the interplay between EU’s and domestic leaders’ interests in a particular sectorial reform. I assume domestic leaders to be rational, power driven actors. I argue that, since they act in some weakly institutionalized political environments such as Eastern European societies, they represent the principal actors in the power game. I assume the EU to be a rational actor as well; yet, differently from Eastern Europe, the role of individual leaders is less distinguishable in the highly institutionalized EU political theatre. In this case, EU institutions are the primary political agents. They are interested in maintaining and enlarging the Union as a stable democracy. Expanding an earlier argument that views the EU as established through consociational practices, I argue that EU membership conditionality is a tool to impose institutional reforms in the EU aspirant countries, so their institutions can be receptive to the EU consociational practices once they join the Union. In these countries, the consociational character of conditionality is more visible, since it seeks to impose in aspirant countries the same practices that have brought democratic stability in some member states. The EU does not impose consociational practices on unified societies, but simply seeks to make their institutions receptive to the EU consociational practices. I test these arguments with the cases of institutional reforms in postcommunist Albanian and Macedonia. I conclude that, generally, EU membership manages to change Eastern European leaders’ interests in institutional reforms, but when it cannot, the reforms are almost impossible

Crossing conceptual boundaries V

PhD annual yearbook for the School of Law and Social Sciences at UEL, featuring five articles by students in the School together with a list of publications by UEL Alumnae and Alumni, 2012-2013

Islamic Activism and the Counterterror state: The Impact of the Securitised Lens on Hizb ut-Tahrir in Britain and Denmark

This project aims to answer the following research question: How has the development of a securitised lens impacted on Hizb ut-Tahrir in Britain and Denmark? To achieve this, it will explore the construction of a securitised lens, the impact of securitisation processes and the difference between responses within Hizb ut-Tahrir (HT) in Britain and Denmark through the following three sub-questions: 1. How do we know securitisation is an issue for Hizb ut-Tahrir in Britain and Denmark? 2. How can we understand securitisation as creating patterns of repression through perception? and 3. What are the long-term effects of this experience of perceived repression in the different contexts? It aims to do this through an approach that brings together the two theoretical discussions of social movement theories and securitisation theories through the nexus of repression. This enables the project to understand patterns of repression and mobilisation response, as well as respond to the limitations of both theoretical facets – social movement theory’s difficulty in understanding subtler, long-term and multi-spatial forms of repressions and securitisation theory’s disposition to assume power only travels downwards, from monolithic repressor to repressed, without an interactive response amongst all actors. The project took an empirical approach grounded in interaction with members, ex-members and those who operate in and around security – something considered particularly important in the study of an organisation that is semi-clandestine in its operation. This included attendance at demonstrations, public talks, da’wah stalls, Friday prayers and mosques talks, as well as halaqat (private study circles), social events, meetings at coffee shops, family meals, weddings and even participation in football practice, with fieldwork conducted between 2015 and 2018. Conceptually, the thesis is designed to fill gaps in contemporary study of the Islamic Activist organisation Hizb ut-Tahrir, updating the literature on an organisation that study has largely neglected in recent years but has become more relevant with the addition of discourse about ‘extremism’ in European counterterror. However, this thesis aims to offer a basic framework not just for understanding Hizb ut-Tahrir or even Islamic Activism, but for any forms of activism that are problematised under the increasing rubric of ‘extremism’, and explore how different groups from diverse movements change tactics in response to the threat or perception of repression by policies, practices or policing under the counterterror lens. It suggests the following findings: 1. Increased securitisation has been instrumental in the decline of HT in Britain and Denmark; 2. However, securitisation has had different effects in the UK than in Denmark, leading to adaption and institutionalisation in the British context and a continuation of contention in the Danish context; and 3. This is because different perceptions of repression have been created by the use of different securitising mechanisms, suggesting that the concept of counterterror securitisation needs to be reconsidered as a more interactive and diversified process, to account for the quanta of securitisation and mobilisation responses produced. The thesis is structured accordingly: Chapter one briefly outlines the questions to be addressed through the project. Chapter two explores the current literature on the topic and the gaps requiring redress. Chapter three details how the research was carried out and why such methodology was chosen. Chapter four outlines the theoretical tools used to understand what has been taking place. Chapter five details the case study of who is being researched, profiling Hizb ut-Tahrir ready for analysis. Chapter six explores the first sub-question: how do we know securitisation has become an issue for Hizb ut-Tahrir? Chapter seven responds to the second sub-question: how do we understand securitisation as creating patterns of repression for Hizb ut-Tahrir? Chapter eight analyses the final sub-question: what are the long-term effects of this experience of securitisation on Hizb ut-Tahrir and how can we understand this as an interactive process? Finally, chapter nine brings together all findings to determine the impact of the securitising lens on Hizb ut-Tahrir, examining alternative explanations and the limitation of this approach, as well as detailing the study’s implications for the field and drawing recommendations for future research

Governance and conflict in Pakistan: Developing a Conflict Prevention and Reduction (CPR) model to promote peace in Baluchistan and the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA)

Pakistan is an unstable country, home to a single religious nation made up of four major regional ethnic sub-nations. The inability of the political leadership of Pakistan to successfully connect and merge the interests of the nation and sub-nations with the interests of the state has been a longstanding issue. This has weakened the central political institution and allowed the military and civil bureaucracies, feudal elites and oligarch families to dominate the central government, preventing it from delivering good governance to the nation and sub-nations. These key central stakeholders allow the tribal chiefs, and religious and ethnic elites to dominate the regional political institutions and to become key regional stakeholders, triggering religious and ethnic conflict. Out of the four major sub-nation regions in Pakistan, the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Baluchistan are hotbeds of religious terrorism and ethnic insurgency, generating a conflict that affects the rest of the country. Through a mix of secondary data and primary information (that includes field interviews and surveys) gathered from Baluchistan, FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), this thesis reveals the existence of sub-states that operate as discrete regional systems of socio-political governance. The study provides empirical evidence that the religious and ethnic conflicts in Pakistan are produced and sustained by these socio-political structures and their governance mechanisms. These conflicts exist in FATA and Baluchistan but not in KP – this difference between the regions offers an opportunity to consider why KP has been more successful than FATA and Baluchistan. This, in turn, provides an opportunity to consider why the governance structures and mechanisms in KP have been successful, and in the process to develop a new Conflict Prevention and Reduction (CPR) model focused on improving governance in FATA and Baluchistan. This could reduce violence and terrorism in Pakistan, while the model has potential relevance for fractured nations beyond Pakistan