Modeling the Drying Kinetics of Green Bell Pepper in a Heat Pump Assisted Fluidized Bed Dryer

In this research, green bell pepper was dried in a pilot plant fluidized bed dryer equipped with a heat pump humidifier using three temperatures of 40, 50 and 60C and two airflow velocities of 2 and 3m/s in constant air moisture. Three modeling methods including nonlinear regression technique, Fuzzy Logic and Artificial Neural Networks were applied to investigate drying kinetics for the sample. Among the mathematical models, Midilli model with R=0.9998 and root mean square error (RMSE)=0.00451 showed the best fit with experimental data. Feed-Forward-Back-Propagation network with Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm, hyperbolic tangent sigmoid transfer function, training cycle of 1,000 epoch and 2-5-1 topology, deserving R=0.99828 and mean square error (MSE)=5.5E-05, was determined as the best neural model. Overall, Neural Networks method was much more precise than two other methods in prediction of drying kinetics and control of drying parameters for green bell pepper. Practical Applications: This article deals with different modeling approaches and their effectiveness and accuracy for predicting changes in the moisture ratio of green bell pepper enduring fluidized bed drying, which is one of the most concerning issues in food factories involved in drying fruits and vegetables. This research indicates that although efficiency of mathematical modeling, Fuzzy Logic controls and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) were all acceptable, the modern prediction methods of Fuzzy Logic and especially ANNs were more productive and precise. Besides, this report compares our findings with previous ones carried out with the view of predicting moisture quotients of other food crops during miscellaneous drying procedures. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc

Forecasting Long-Term Government Bond Yields: An Application of Statistical and AI Models

This paper evaluates several artificial intelligence and classical algorithms on their ability of forecasting the monthly yield of the US 10-year Treasury bonds from a set of four economic indicators. Due to the complexity of the prediction problem, the task represents a challenging test for the algorithms under evaluation. At the same time, the study is of particular significance for the important and paradigmatic role played by the US market in the world economy. Four data-driven artificial intelligence approaches are considered, namely, a manually built fuzzy logic model, a machine learned fuzzy logic model, a self-organising map model and a multi-layer perceptron model. Their performance is compared with the performance of two classical approaches, namely, a statistical ARIMA model and an econometric error correction model. The algorithms are evaluated on a complete series of end-month US 10-year Treasury bonds yields and economic indicators from 1986:1 to 2004:12. In terms of prediction accuracy and reliability of the modelling procedure, the best results are obtained by the three parametric regression algorithms, namely the econometric, the statistical and the multi-layer perceptron model. Due to the sparseness of the learning data samples, the manual and the automatic fuzzy logic approaches fail to follow with adequate precision the range of variations of the US 10-year Treasury bonds. For similar reasons, the self-organising map model gives an unsatisfactory performance. Analysis of the results indicates that the econometric model has a slight edge over the statistical and the multi-layer perceptron models. This suggests that pure data-driven induction may not fully capture the complicated mechanisms ruling the changes in interest rates. Overall, the prediction accuracy of the best models is only marginally better than the prediction accuracy of a basic one-step lag predictor. This result highlights the difficulty of the modelling task and, in general, the difficulty of building reliable predictors for financial markets.interest rates; forecasting; neural networks; fuzzy logic.

Forecasting and Forecast Combination in Airline Revenue Management Applications

Predicting a variable for a future point in time helps planning for unknown future situations and is common practice in many areas such as economics, finance, manufacturing, weather and natural sciences. This paper investigates and compares approaches to forecasting and forecast combination that can be applied to service industry in general and to airline industry in particular. Furthermore, possibilities to include additionally available data like passenger-based information are discussed

Multivariate adaptive regression splines for estimating riverine constituent concentrations

Regression-based methods are commonly used for riverine constituent concentration/flux estimation, which is essential for guiding water quality protection practices and environmental decision making. This paper developed a multivariate adaptive regression splines model for estimating riverine constituent concentrations (MARS-EC). The process, interpretability and flexibility of the MARS-EC modelling approach, was demonstrated for total nitrogen in the Patuxent River, a major river input to Chesapeake Bay. Model accuracy and uncertainty of the MARS-EC approach was further analysed using nitrate plus nitrite datasets from eight tributary rivers to Chesapeake Bay. Results showed that the MARS-EC approach integrated the advantages of both parametric and nonparametric regression methods, and model accuracy was demonstrated to be superior to the traditionally used ESTIMATOR model. MARS-EC is flexible and allows consideration of auxiliary variables; the variables and interactions can be selected automatically. MARS-EC does not constrain concentration-predictor curves to be constant but rather is able to identify shifts in these curves from mathematical expressions and visual graphics. The MARS-EC approach provides an effective and complementary tool along with existing approaches for estimating riverine constituent concentrations

The Theory of Fuzzy Logic and its Application to Real Estate Valuation

Fuzzy logic is based on the central idea that in fuzzy sets each element in the set can assume a value from 0 to 1, not just 0 or 1, as in classic set theory. Thus, qualitative characteristics and numerically scaled measures can exhibit gradations in the extent to which they belong to the relevant sets for evaluation. This degree of membership of each element is a measure of the element’s "belonging" to the set, and thus of the precision with which it explains the phenomenon being evaluated. Fuzzy sets can be combined to produce meaningful conclusions, and inferences can be made, given a specified fuzzy input function. The article demonstrates the application of fuzzy logic to an income-producing property, with a resulting fuzzy set output.

A Study of Panel Logit Model and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Financial Distress Periods

The purpose of this paper is to present two different approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical services