Emergence of influential spreaders in modified rumor models

The burst in the use of online social networks over the last decade has provided evidence that current rumor spreading models miss some fundamental ingredients in order to reproduce how information is disseminated. In particular, recent literature has revealed that these models fail to reproduce the fact that some nodes in a network have an influential role when it comes to spread a piece of information. In this work, we introduce two mechanisms with the aim of filling the gap between theoretical and experimental results. The first model introduces the assumption that spreaders are not always active whereas the second model considers the possibility that an ignorant is not interested in spreading the rumor. In both cases, results from numerical simulations show a higher adhesion to real data than classical rumor spreading models. Our results shed some light on the mechanisms underlying the spreading of information and ideas in large social systems and pave the way for more realistic diffusion models.Comment: 14 Pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in Journal of Statistical Physic

Detecting the Influence of Spreading in Social Networks with Excitable Sensor Networks

Detecting spreading outbreaks in social networks with sensors is of great significance in applications. Inspired by the formation mechanism of human's physical sensations to external stimuli, we propose a new method to detect the influence of spreading by constructing excitable sensor networks. Exploiting the amplifying effect of excitable sensor networks, our method can better detect small-scale spreading processes. At the same time, it can also distinguish large-scale diffusion instances due to the self-inhibition effect of excitable elements. Through simulations of diverse spreading dynamics on typical real-world social networks (facebook, coauthor and email social networks), we find that the excitable senor networks are capable of detecting and ranking spreading processes in a much wider range of influence than other commonly used sensor placement methods, such as random, targeted, acquaintance and distance strategies. In addition, we validate the efficacy of our method with diffusion data from a real-world online social system, Twitter. We find that our method can detect more spreading topics in practice. Our approach provides a new direction in spreading detection and should be useful for designing effective detection methods

Sequential Attention Source Identification Based on Feature Representation

Snapshot observation based source localization has been widely studied due to its accessibility and low cost. However, the interaction of users in existing methods does not be addressed in time-varying infection scenarios. So these methods have a decreased accuracy in heterogeneous interaction scenarios. To solve this critical issue, this paper proposes a sequence-to-sequence based localization framework called Temporal-sequence based Graph Attention Source Identification (TGASI) based on an inductive learning idea. More specifically, the encoder focuses on generating multiple features by estimating the influence probability between two users, and the decoder distinguishes the importance of prediction sources in different timestamps by a designed temporal attention mechanism. It's worth mentioning that the inductive learning idea ensures that TGASI can detect the sources in new scenarios without knowing other prior knowledge, which proves the scalability of TGASI. Comprehensive experiments with the SOTA methods demonstrate the higher detection performance and scalability in different scenarios of TGASI

Observer Placement for Source Localization: The Effect of Budgets and Transmission Variance

When an epidemic spreads in a network, a key question is where was its source, i.e., the node that started the epidemic. If we know the time at which various nodes were infected, we can attempt to use this information in order to identify the source. However, maintaining observer nodes that can provide their infection time may be costly, and we may have a budget $k$ on the number of observer nodes we can maintain. Moreover, some nodes are more informative than others due to their location in the network. Hence, a pertinent question arises: Which nodes should we select as observers in order to maximize the probability that we can accurately identify the source? Inspired by the simple setting in which the node-to-node delays in the transmission of the epidemic are deterministic, we develop a principled approach for addressing the problem even when transmission delays are random. We show that the optimal observer-placement differs depending on the variance of the transmission delays and propose approaches in both low- and high-variance settings. We validate our methods by comparing them against state-of-the-art observer-placements and show that, in both settings, our approach identifies the source with higher accuracy.Comment: Accepted for presentation at the 54th Annual Allerton Conference on Communication, Control, and Computin

The Anatomy of a Scientific Rumor

The announcement of the discovery of a Higgs boson-like particle at CERN will be remembered as one of the milestones of the scientific endeavor of the 21st century. In this paper we present a study of information spreading processes on Twitter before, during and after the announcement of the discovery of a new particle with the features of the elusive Higgs boson on 4th July 2012. We report evidence for non-trivial spatio-temporal patterns in user activities at individual and global level, such as tweeting, re-tweeting and replying to existing tweets. We provide a possible explanation for the observed time-varying dynamics of user activities during the spreading of this scientific "rumor". We model the information spreading in the corresponding network of individuals who posted a tweet related to the Higgs boson discovery. Finally, we show that we are able to reproduce the global behavior of about 500,000 individuals with remarkable accuracy.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figure

Reconstructing propagation networks with natural diversity and identifying hidden sources

Our ability to uncover complex network structure and dynamics from data is fundamental to understanding and controlling collective dynamics in complex systems. Despite recent progress in this area, reconstructing networks with stochastic dynamical processes from limited time series remains to be an outstanding problem. Here we develop a framework based on compressed sensing to reconstruct complex networks on which stochastic spreading dynamics take place. We apply the methodology to a large number of model and real networks, finding that a full reconstruction of inhomogeneous interactions can be achieved from small amounts of polarized (binary) data, a virtue of compressed sensing. Further, we demonstrate that a hidden source that triggers the spreading process but is externally inaccessible can be ascertained and located with high confidence in the absence of direct routes of propagation from it. Our approach thus establishes a paradigm for tracing and controlling epidemic invasion and information diffusion in complex networked systems.Comment: 20 pages and 5 figures. For Supplementary information, please see http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140711/ncomms5323/full/ncomms5323.html#