Theories for influencer identification in complex networks

In social and biological systems, the structural heterogeneity of interaction networks gives rise to the emergence of a small set of influential nodes, or influencers, in a series of dynamical processes. Although much smaller than the entire network, these influencers were observed to be able to shape the collective dynamics of large populations in different contexts. As such, the successful identification of influencers should have profound implications in various real-world spreading dynamics such as viral marketing, epidemic outbreaks and cascading failure. In this chapter, we first summarize the centrality-based approach in finding single influencers in complex networks, and then discuss the more complicated problem of locating multiple influencers from a collective point of view. Progress rooted in collective influence theory, belief-propagation and computer science will be presented. Finally, we present some applications of influencer identification in diverse real-world systems, including online social platforms, scientific publication, brain networks and socioeconomic systems.Comment: 24 pages, 6 figure

DeepTrace: Learning to Optimize Contact Tracing in Epidemic Networks with Graph Neural Networks

The goal of digital contact tracing is to diminish the spread of an epidemic or pandemic by detecting and mitigating public health emergencies using digital technologies. Since the start of the COVID-$19$ pandemic, a wide variety of mobile digital apps have been deployed to identify people exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus and to stop onward transmission. Tracing sources of spreading (i.e., backward contact tracing), as has been used in Japan and Australia, has proven crucial as going backwards can pick up infections that might otherwise be missed at superspreading events. How should robust backward contact tracing automated by mobile computing and network analytics be designed? In this paper, we formulate the forward and backward contact tracing problem for epidemic source inference as maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation subject to subgraph sampling. Besides its restricted case (inspired by the seminal work of Zaman and Shah in 2011) when the full infection topology is known, the general problem is more challenging due to its sheer combinatorial complexity, problem scale and the fact that the full infection topology is rarely accurately known. We propose a Graph Neural Network (GNN) framework, named DeepTrace, to compute the ML estimator by leveraging the likelihood structure to configure the training set with topological features of smaller epidemic networks as training sets. We demonstrate that the performance of our GNN approach improves over prior heuristics in the literature and serves as a basis to design robust contact tracing analytics to combat pandemics

Information extraction with network centralities : finding rumor sources, measuring influence, and learning community structure

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2011.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 193-197).Network centrality is a function that takes a network graph as input and assigns a score to each node. In this thesis, we investigate the potential of network centralities for addressing inference questions arising in the context of large-scale networked data. These questions are particularly challenging because they require algorithms which are extremely fast and simple so as to be scalable, while at the same time they must perform well. It is this tension between scalability and performance that this thesis aims to resolve by using appropriate network centralities. Specifically, we solve three important network inference problems using network centrality: finding rumor sources, measuring influence, and learning community structure. We develop a new network centrality called rumor centrality to find rumor sources in networks. We give a linear time algorithm for calculating rumor centrality, demonstrating its practicality for large networks. Rumor centrality is proven to be an exact maximum likelihood rumor source estimator for random regular graphs (under an appropriate probabilistic rumor spreading model). For a wide class of networks and rumor spreading models, we prove that it is an accurate estimator. To establish the universality of rumor centrality as a source estimator, we utilize techniques from the classical theory of generalized Polya's urns and branching processes. Next we use rumor centrality to measure influence in Twitter. We develop an influence score based on rumor centrality which can be calculated in linear time. To justify the use of rumor centrality as the influence score, we use it to develop a new network growth model called topological network growth. We find that this model accurately reproduces two important features observed empirically in Twitter retweet networks: a power-law degree distribution and a superstar node with very high degree. Using these results, we argue that rumor centrality is correctly quantifying the influence of users on Twitter. These scores form the basis of a dynamic influence tracking engine called Trumor which allows one to measure the influence of users in Twitter or more generally in any networked data. Finally we investigate learning the community structure of a network. Using arguments based on social interactions, we determine that the network centrality known as degree centrality can be used to detect communities. We use this to develop the leader-follower algorithm (LFA) which can learn the overlapping community structure in networks. The LFA runtime is linear in the network size. It is also non-parametric, in the sense that it can learn both the number and size of communities naturally from the network structure without requiring any input parameters. We prove that it is very robust and learns accurate community structure for a broad class of networks. We find that the LFA does a better job of learning community structure on real social and biological networks than more common algorithms such as spectral clustering.by Tauhid R. Zaman.Ph.D

Belief Propagation approach to epidemics prediction on networks

In my thesis I study the problem of predicting the evolution of the epidemic spreading on networks when incomplete information, in form of a partial observation, is available. I focus on the irreversible process described by the discrete time version of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model on networks. Because of its intrinsic stochasticity, forecasting the SIR process is very difficult, even if the structure of individuals contact pattern is known. In today's interconnected and interdependent society, infectious diseases pose the threat of a worldwide epidemic spreading, hence governments and public health systems maintain surveillance programs to report and control the emergence of new disease event ranging from the seasonal influenza to the more severe HIV or Ebola. When new infection cases are discovered in the population it is necessary to provide real-time forecasting of the epidemic evolution. However the incompleteness of accessible data and the intrinsic stochasticity of the contagion pose a major challenge. The idea behind the work of my thesis is that the correct inference of the contagion process before the detection of the disease permits to use all the available information and, consequently, to obtain reliable predictions. I use the Belief Propagation approach for the prediction of SIR epidemics when a partial observation is available. In this case the reconstruction of the past dynamics can be efficiently performed by this method and exploited to analyze the evolution of the disease. Although the Belief Propagation provides exact results on trees, it turns out that is still a good approximation on general graphs. In this cases Belief Propagation may present convergence related issues, especially on dense networks. Moreover, since this approach is based on a very general principle, it can be adapted to study a wide range of issues, some of which I analyze in the thesis

Universal Protocols for Information Dissemination Using Emergent Signals

We consider a population of $n$ agents which communicate with each other in a decentralized manner, through random pairwise interactions. One or more agents in the population may act as authoritative sources of information, and the objective of the remaining agents is to obtain information from or about these source agents. We study two basic tasks: broadcasting, in which the agents are to learn the bit-state of an authoritative source which is present in the population, and source detection, in which the agents are required to decide if at least one source agent is present in the population or not.We focus on designing protocols which meet two natural conditions: (1) universality, i.e., independence of population size, and (2) rapid convergence to a correct global state after a reconfiguration, such as a change in the state of a source agent. Our main positive result is to show that both of these constraints can be met. For both the broadcasting problem and the source detection problem, we obtain solutions with a convergence time of $O(\log^2 n)$ rounds, w.h.p., from any starting configuration. The solution to broadcasting is exact, which means that all agents reach the state broadcast by the source, while the solution to source detection admits one-sided error on a $\varepsilon$-fraction of the population (which is unavoidable for this problem). Both protocols are easy to implement in practice and have a compact formulation.Our protocols exploit the properties of self-organizing oscillatory dynamics. On the hardness side, our main structural insight is to prove that any protocol which meets the constraints of universality and of rapid convergence after reconfiguration must display a form of non-stationary behavior (of which oscillatory dynamics are an example). We also observe that the periodicity of the oscillatory behavior of the protocol, when present, must necessarily depend on the number ^\\# X of source agents present in the population. For instance, our protocols inherently rely on the emergence of a signal passing through the population, whose period is \Theta(\log \frac{n}{^\\# X}) rounds for most starting configurations. The design of clocks with tunable frequency may be of independent interest, notably in modeling biological networks

On the Properties of Gromov Matrices and their Applications in Network Inference

The spanning tree heuristic is a commonly adopted procedure in network inference and estimation. It allows one to generalize an inference method developed for trees, which is usually based on a statistically rigorous approach, to a heuristic procedure for general graphs by (usually randomly) choosing a spanning tree in the graph to apply the approach developed for trees. However, there are an intractable number of spanning trees in a dense graph. In this paper, we represent a weighted tree with a matrix, which we call a Gromov matrix. We propose a method that constructs a family of Gromov matrices using convex combinations, which can be used for inference and estimation instead of a randomly selected spanning tree. This procedure increases the size of the candidate set and hence enhances the performance of the classical spanning tree heuristic. On the other hand, our new scheme is based on simple algebraic constructions using matrices, and hence is still computationally tractable. We discuss some applications on network inference and estimation to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method

Cascade Size Distributions: Why They Matter and How to Compute Them Efficiently

Cascade models are central to understanding, predicting, and controlling epidemic spreading and information propagation. Related optimization, including influence maximization, model parameter inference, or the development of vaccination strategies, relies heavily on sampling from a model. This is either inefficient or inaccurate. As alternative, we present an efficient message passing algorithm that computes the probability distribution of the cascade size for the Independent Cascade Model on weighted directed networks and generalizations. Our approach is exact on trees but can be applied to any network topology. It approximates locally tree-like networks well, scales to large networks, and can lead to surprisingly good performance on more dense networks, as we also exemplify on real world data.Comment: Accepted at AAAI 202