The impact of the mode of thought in complex decisions: intuitive decisions are better

A number of recent studies have reported that decision quality is enhanced under conditions of inattention or distraction (unconscious thought; Dijksterhuis, 2004; Dijksterhuis and Nordgren, 2006; Dijksterhuis et al., 2006). These reports have generated considerable controversy, for both experimental (problems of replication) and theoretical reasons (interpretation). Here we report the results of four experiments. The first experiment replicates the unconscious thought effect, under conditions that validate and control the subjective criterion of decision quality. The second and third experiments examine the impact of a mode of thought manipulation (without distraction) on decision quality in immediate decisions. Here we find that intuitive or affective manipulations improve decision quality compared to analytic/deliberation manipulations. The fourth experiment combines the two methods (distraction and mode of thought manipulations) and demonstrates enhanced decision quality, in a situation that attempts to preserve ecological validity. The results are interpreted within a framework that is based on two interacting subsystems of decision-making: an affective/intuition based system and an analytic/deliberation system

Knowledge discovery for friction stir welding via data driven approaches: Part 2 – multiobjective modelling using fuzzy rule based systems

In this final part of this extensive study, a new systematic data-driven fuzzy modelling approach has been developed, taking into account both the modelling accuracy and its interpretability (transparency) as attributes. For the first time, a data-driven modelling framework has been proposed designed and implemented in order to model the intricate FSW behaviours relating to AA5083 aluminium alloy, consisting of the grain size, mechanical properties, as well as internal process properties. As a result, ‘Pareto-optimal’ predictive models have been successfully elicited which, through validations on real data for the aluminium alloy AA5083, have been shown to be accurate, transparent and generic despite the conservative number of data points used for model training and testing. Compared with analytically based methods, the proposed data-driven modelling approach provides a more effective way to construct prediction models for FSW when there is an apparent lack of fundamental process knowledge

Incorporating stakeholders’ knowledge in group decision-making

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Computational Modeling of Culture's Consequences

This paper presents an approach to formalize the influence of culture on the decision functions of agents in social simulations. The key components are (a) a definition of the domain of study in the form of a decision model, (b) knowledge acquisition based on a dimensional theory of culture, resulting in expert validated computational models of the influence of single dimensions, and (c) a technique for integrating the knowledge about individual dimensions. The approach is developed in a line of research that studies the influence of culture on trade processes. Trade is an excellent subject for this study of culture’s consequences because it is ubiquitous, relevant both socially and economically, and often increasingly cross-cultural in a globalized world