Engineering Algorithms for Dynamic and Time-Dependent Route Planning

Efficiently computing shortest paths is an essential building block of many mobility applications, most prominently route planning/navigation devices and applications. In this thesis, we apply the algorithm engineering methodology to design algorithms for route planning in dynamic (for example, considering real-time traffic) and time-dependent (for example, considering traffic predictions) problem settings. We build on and extend the popular Contraction Hierarchies (CH) speedup technique. With a few minutes of preprocessing, CH can optimally answer shortest path queries on continental-sized road networks with tens of millions of vertices and edges in less than a millisecond, i.e. around four orders of magnitude faster than Dijkstra’s algorithm. CH already has been extended to dynamic and time-dependent problem settings. However, these adaptations suffer from limitations. For example, the time-dependent variant of CH exhibits prohibitive memory consumption on large road networks with detailed traffic predictions. This thesis contains the following key contributions: First, we introduce CH-Potentials, an A*-based routing framework. CH-Potentials computes optimal distance estimates for A* using CH with a lower bound weight function derived at preprocessing time. The framework can be applied to any routing problem where appropriate lower bounds can be obtained. The achieved speedups range between one and three orders of magnitude over Dijkstra’s algorithm, depending on how tight the lower bounds are. Second, we propose several improvements to Customizable Contraction Hierarchies (CCH), the CH adaptation for dynamic route planning. Our improvements yield speedups of up to an order of magnitude. Further, we augment CCH to efficiently support essential extensions such as turn costs, alternative route computation and point-of-interest queries. Third, we present the first space-efficient, fast and exact speedup technique for time-dependent routing. Compared to the previous time-dependent variant of CH, our technique requires up to 40 times less memory, needs at most a third of the preprocessing time, and achieves only marginally slower query running times. Fourth, we generalize A* and introduce time-dependent A* potentials. This allows us to design the first approach for routing with combined live and predicted traffic, which achieves interactive running times for exact queries while allowing live traffic updates in a fraction of a minute. Fifth, we study extended problem models for routing with imperfect data and routing for truck drivers and present efficient algorithms for these variants. Sixth and finally, we present various complexity results for non-FIFO time-dependent routing and the extended problem models

Dynamic Time-Dependent Route Planning in Road Networks with User Preferences

There has been tremendous progress in algorithmic methods for computing driving directions on road networks. Most of that work focuses on time-independent route planning, where it is assumed that the cost on each arc is constant per query. In practice, the current traffic situation significantly influences the travel time on large parts of the road network, and it changes over the day. One can distinguish between traffic congestion that can be predicted using historical traffic data, and congestion due to unpredictable events, e.g., accidents. In this work, we study the \emph{dynamic and time-dependent} route planning problem, which takes both prediction (based on historical data) and live traffic into account. To this end, we propose a practical algorithm that, while robust to user preferences, is able to integrate global changes of the time-dependent metric~(e.g., due to traffic updates or user restrictions) faster than previous approaches, while allowing subsequent queries that enable interactive applications

Estimating Uncertainty of Bus Arrival Times and Passenger Occupancies

Travel time reliability and the availability of seating and boarding space are important indicators of bus service quality and strongly influence users’ satisfaction and attitudes towards bus transit systems. With Automated Vehicle Location (AVL) and Automated Passenger Counter (APC) units becoming common on buses, some agencies have begun to provide real-time bus location and passenger occupancy information as a means to improve perceived transit reliability. Travel time prediction models have also been established based on AVL and APC data. However, existing travel time prediction models fail to provide an indication of the uncertainty associated with these estimates. This can cause a false sense of precision, which can lead to experiences associated with unreliable service. Furthermore, no existing models are available to predict individual bus occupancies at downstream stops to help travelers understand if there will be space available to board. The purpose of this project was to develop modeling frameworks to predict travel times (and associated uncertainties) as well as individual bus passenger occupancies. For travel times, accelerated failure-time survival models were used to predict the entire distribution of travel times expected. The survival models were found to be just as accurate as models developed using traditional linear regression techniques. However, the survival models were found to have smaller variances associated with predictions. For passenger occupancies, linear and count regression models were compared. The linear regression models were found to outperform count regression models, perhaps due to the additive nature of the passenger boarding process. Various modeling frameworks were tested and the best frameworks were identified for predictions at near stops (within five stops downstream) and far stops (further than eight stops). Overall, these results can be integrated into existing real-time transit information systems to improve the quality of information provided to passengers

Efficient Journey Planning and Congestion Prediction Through Deep Learning

The advancements of technology continuously rising over the years has seen many applications that are useful in providing users with sufficient information to make better journey plans on their own. However, commuters still find themselves going through congested routes every day to get to their destinations. This paper attempts to delineate the possibilities of improving urban mobility through big data processing and deep-learning models. Essentially, through a predictive model to predict congestion and its duration, this paper aims to develop and validate a functional journey planning mobile application that can predict traffic conditions, allowing road users to make better informed decisions to their travel plans. This paper proposes a Multi-Layered Perceptron (MLP) deep learning model for congestion prediction and supplements a Linear Regression (LR) model to predict its duration. The proposed MLP-LR model performed reasonably well with an accuracy of 63% in predicting an occurrence of congestion. Some critical discussions on further research opportunities stemming from this study is also presented

Game Theory Models for the Verification of the Collective Behaviour of Autonomous Cars

The collective of autonomous cars is expected to generate almost optimal traffic. In this position paper we discuss the multi-agent models and the verification results of the collective behaviour of autonomous cars. We argue that non-cooperative autonomous adaptation cannot guarantee optimal behaviour. The conjecture is that intention aware adaptation with a constraint on simultaneous decision making has the potential to avoid unwanted behaviour. The online routing game model is expected to be the basis to formally prove this conjecture.Comment: In Proceedings FVAV 2017, arXiv:1709.0212

Assessing the Impact of Game Day Schedule and Opponents on Travel Patterns and Route Choice using Big Data Analytics

The transportation system is crucial for transferring people and goods from point A to point B. However, its reliability can be decreased by unanticipated congestion resulting from planned special events. For example, sporting events collect large crowds of people at specific venues on game days and disrupt normal traffic patterns. The goal of this study was to understand issues related to road traffic management during major sporting events by using widely available INRIX data to compare travel patterns and behaviors on game days against those on normal days. A comprehensive analysis was conducted on the impact of all Nebraska Cornhuskers football games over five years on traffic congestion on five major routes in Nebraska. We attempted to identify hotspots, the unusually high-risk zones in a spatiotemporal space containing traffic congestion that occur on almost all game days. For hotspot detection, we utilized a method called Multi-EigenSpot, which is able to detect multiple hotspots in a spatiotemporal space. With this algorithm, we were able to detect traffic hotspot clusters on the five chosen routes in Nebraska. After detecting the hotspots, we identified the factors affecting the sizes of hotspots and other parameters. The start time of the game and the Cornhuskers’ opponent for a given game are two important factors affecting the number of people coming to Lincoln, Nebraska, on game days. Finally, the Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) approach was applied to forecast the start times and locations of hotspot clusters in 2018 with a weighted mean absolute percentage error (WMAPE) of 13.8%