Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand

A technique is proposed for estimating the probability distribution of total network travel time, in the light of normal day-to-day variations in the travel demand matrix over a road traffic network. A solution method is proposed, based on a single run of a standard traffic assignment model, which operates in two stages. In stage one, moments of the total travel time distribution are computed by an analytic method, based on the multivariate moments of the link flow vector. In stage two, a flexible family of density functions is fitted to these moments. It is discussed how the resulting distribution may in practice be used to characterise unreliability. Illustrative numerical tests are reported on a simple network, where the method is seen to provide a means for identifying sensitive or vulnerable links, and for examining the impact on network reliability of changes to link capacities. Computational considerations for large networks, and directions for further research, are discussed

Opportunity costs calculation in agent-based vehicle routing and scheduling

In this paper we consider a real-time, dynamic pickup and delivery problem with timewindows where orders should be assigned to one of a set of competing transportation companies. Our approach decomposes the problem into a multi-agent structure where vehicle agents are responsible for the routing and scheduling decisions and the assignment of orders to vehicles is done by using a second-price auction. Therefore the system performance will be heavily dependent on the pricing strategy of the vehicle agents. We propose a pricing strategy for vehicle agents based on dynamic programming where not only the direct cost of a job insertion is taken into account, but also its impact on future opportunities. We also propose a waiting strategy based on the same opportunity valuation. Simulation is used to evaluate the benefit of pricing opportunities compared to simple pricing strategies in different market settings. Numerical results show that the proposed approach provides high quality solutions, in terms of profits, capacity utilization and delivery reliability

Network Topology and Time Criticality Effects in the Modularised Fleet Mix Problem

In this paper, we explore the interplay between network topology and time criticality in a military logistics system. A general goal of this work (and previous work) is to evaluate land transportation requirements or, more specifically, how to design appropriate fleets of military general service vehicles that are tasked with the supply and re-supply of military units dispersed in an area of operation. The particular focus of this paper is to gain a better understanding of how the logistics environment changes when current Army vehicles with fixed transport characteristics are replaced by a new generation of modularised vehicles that can be configured task-specifically. The experimental work is conducted within a well developed strategic planning simulation environment which includes a scenario generation engine for automatically sampling supply and re-supply missions and a multi-objective meta-heuristic search algorithm (i.e. Evolutionary Algorithm) for solving the particular scheduling and routing problems. The results presented in this paper allow for a better understanding of how (and under what conditions) a modularised vehicle fleet can provide advantages over the currently implemented system

Incentive-compatible route coordination of crowdsourced resources

Technical ReportWith the recent trend in crowdsourcing, i.e., using the power of crowds to assist in satisfying demand, the pool of resources suitable for GeoPresen-ce-capable systems has expanded to include already roaming devices, such as mobile phones, and moving vehicles. We envision an environment, in which the motion of these crowdsourced mobile resources is coordinated, according to their preexisting schedules to satisfy geo-temporal demand on a mobility field. In this paper, we propose an incentive compatible route coordination mechanism for crowdsourced resources, in which participating mobile agents satisfy geo-temporal requests in return for monetary rewards. We define the Flexible Route Coordination (FRC) problem, in which an agent’s flexibility is exploited to maximize the coverage of a mobility field, with an objective to maximize the revenue collected from satisfied paying requests. Given that the FRC problem is NP-hard, we define an optimal algorithm to plan the route of a single agent on a graph with evolving labels, then we use that algorithm to define a 1-approximation algorithm to solve the 2 problem in its general model, with multiple agents. Moreover, we define an incentive compatible, rational, and cash-positive payment mechanism, which guarantees that an agent’s truthfulness about its flexibility is an ex-post Nash equilibrium strategy. Finally, we analyze the proposed mechanisms theoretically, and evaluate their performance experimentally using real mobility traces from urban environments