Online Predictive Optimization Framework for Stochastic Demand-Responsive Transit Services

This study develops an online predictive optimization framework for dynamically operating a transit service in an area of crowd movements. The proposed framework integrates demand prediction and supply optimization to periodically redesign the service routes based on recently observed demand. To predict demand for the service, we use Quantile Regression to estimate the marginal distribution of movement counts between each pair of serviced locations. The framework then combines these marginals into a joint demand distribution by constructing a Gaussian copula, which captures the structure of correlation between the marginals. For supply optimization, we devise a linear programming model, which simultaneously determines the route structure and the service frequency according to the predicted demand. Importantly, our framework both preserves the uncertainty structure of future demand and leverages this for robust route optimization, while keeping both components decoupled. We evaluate our framework using a real-world case study of autonomous mobility in a university campus in Denmark. The results show that our framework often obtains the ground truth optimal solution, and can outperform conventional methods for route optimization, which do not leverage full predictive distributions.Comment: 34 pages, 12 figures, 5 table

No-boarding buses: Synchronisation for efficiency

We investigate a no-boarding policy in a system of $N$ buses serving $M$ bus stops in a loop, which is an entrainment mechanism to keep buses synchronised in a reasonably staggered configuration. Buses always allow alighting, but would disallow boarding if certain criteria are met. For an analytically tractable theory, buses move with the same natural speed (applicable to programmable self-driving buses), where the average waiting time experienced by passengers waiting at the bus stop for a bus to arrive can be calculated. The analytical results show that a no-boarding policy can dramatically reduce the average waiting time, as compared to the usual situation without the no-boarding policy. Subsequently, we carry out simulations to verify these theoretical analyses, also extending the simulations to typical human-driven buses with different natural speeds based on real data. Finally, a simple general adaptive algorithm is implemented to dynamically determine when to implement no-boarding in a simulation for a real university shuttle bus service.Comment: 49 pages, 9 figures. Video available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBNqvTr1Aj

The Green Choice: Learning and Influencing Human Decisions on Shared Roads

Autonomous vehicles have the potential to increase the capacity of roads via platooning, even when human drivers and autonomous vehicles share roads. However, when users of a road network choose their routes selfishly, the resulting traffic configuration may be very inefficient. Because of this, we consider how to influence human decisions so as to decrease congestion on these roads. We consider a network of parallel roads with two modes of transportation: (i) human drivers who will choose the quickest route available to them, and (ii) ride hailing service which provides an array of autonomous vehicle ride options, each with different prices, to users. In this work, we seek to design these prices so that when autonomous service users choose from these options and human drivers selfishly choose their resulting routes, road usage is maximized and transit delay is minimized. To do so, we formalize a model of how autonomous service users make choices between routes with different price/delay values. Developing a preference-based algorithm to learn the preferences of the users, and using a vehicle flow model related to the Fundamental Diagram of Traffic, we formulate a planning optimization to maximize a social objective and demonstrate the benefit of the proposed routing and learning scheme.Comment: Submitted to CDC 201