EGMM: an Evidential Version of the Gaussian Mixture Model for Clustering

The Gaussian mixture model (GMM) provides a convenient yet principled framework for clustering, with properties suitable for statistical inference. In this paper, we propose a new model-based clustering algorithm, called EGMM (evidential GMM), in the theoretical framework of belief functions to better characterize cluster-membership uncertainty. With a mass function representing the cluster membership of each object, the evidential Gaussian mixture distribution composed of the components over the powerset of the desired clusters is proposed to model the entire dataset. The parameters in EGMM are estimated by a specially designed Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. A validity index allowing automatic determination of the proper number of clusters is also provided. The proposed EGMM is as convenient as the classical GMM, but can generate a more informative evidential partition for the considered dataset. Experiments with synthetic and real datasets demonstrate the good performance of the proposed method as compared with some other prototype-based and model-based clustering techniques

Informational Paradigm, management of uncertainty and theoretical formalisms in the clustering framework: A review

Fifty years have gone by since the publication of the first paper on clustering based on fuzzy sets theory. In 1965, L.A. Zadeh had published “Fuzzy Sets” [335]. After only one year, the first effects of this seminal paper began to emerge, with the pioneering paper on clustering by Bellman, Kalaba, Zadeh [33], in which they proposed a prototypal of clustering algorithm based on the fuzzy sets theory

Uncertainty Management of Intelligent Feature Selection in Wireless Sensor Networks

Wireless sensor networks (WSN) are envisioned to revolutionize the paradigm of monitoring complex real-world systems at a very high resolution. However, the deployment of a large number of unattended sensor nodes in hostile environments, frequent changes of environment dynamics, and severe resource constraints pose uncertainties and limit the potential use of WSN in complex real-world applications. Although uncertainty management in Artificial Intelligence (AI) is well developed and well investigated, its implications in wireless sensor environments are inadequately addressed. This dissertation addresses uncertainty management issues of spatio-temporal patterns generated from sensor data. It provides a framework for characterizing spatio-temporal pattern in WSN. Using rough set theory and temporal reasoning a novel formalism has been developed to characterize and quantify the uncertainties in predicting spatio-temporal patterns from sensor data. This research also uncovers the trade-off among the uncertainty measures, which can be used to develop a multi-objective optimization model for real-time decision making in sensor data aggregation and samplin

INTEGRATING KANO MODEL WITH DATA MINING TECHNIQUES TO ENHANCE CUSTOMER SATISFACTION

The business world is becoming more competitive from time to time; therefore, businesses are forced to improve their strategies in every single aspect. So, determining the elements that contribute to the clients\u27 contentment is one of the critical needs of businesses to develop successful products in the market. The Kano model is one of the models that help determine which features must be included in a product or service to improve customer satisfaction. The model focuses on highlighting the most relevant attributes of a product or service along with customers’ estimation of how these attributes can be used to predict satisfaction with specific services or products. This research aims at developing a method to integrate the Kano model and data mining approaches to select relevant attributes that drive customer satisfaction, with a specific focus on higher education. The significant contribution of this research is to improve the quality of United Arab Emirates University academic support and development services provided to their students by solving the problem of selecting features that are not methodically correlated to customer satisfaction, which could reduce the risk of investing in features that could ultimately be irrelevant to enhancing customer satisfaction. Questionnaire data were collected from 646 students from United Arab Emirates University. The experiment suggests that Extreme Gradient Boosting Regression can produce the best results for this kind of problem. Based on the integration of the Kano model and the feature selection method, the number of features used to predict customer satisfaction is minimized to four features. It was found that either Chi-Square or Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) features selection model’s integration with the Kano model giving higher values of Pearson correlation coefficient and R2. Moreover, the prediction was made using union features between the Kano model\u27s most important features and the most frequent features among 8 clusters. It shows high-performance results

Optimal trading with frictions

This thesis studies the optimal trading problem with particular attention to frictions, taking alpha signals as given in several practical settings in modern financial markets. Chapter 2 provides a reduced-form model for price impact of market orders. As a scaling limit of the econo-physics propagator model, it has both tractability for optimization and good empirical fit. The nonlinearity in propagator model is explained as a effect of intraday stochasticity of the market activity. Optimal trading strategies are given for the case of stochastic alpha signal and volume signals in closed-form solutions. Moreoever, concrete bounds for the absence of price manipulation strategies are provided. Chapter 3 derives an actionable derivatives hedging strategy with both market and limit orders from the perspective of a central risk book. It is found that limit order is only beneficial for delta-hedging when the gamma of the risky position is negative. Additionally, the interaction between transaction cost, adverse selection and risk aversion can be characterized by a nonlinear PDE that describes the option price. According to empirical analysis, tactical liquidity provision is beneficial for non-competitive market makers for reasonable trading frequencies. Chapter 4 studies the usage of display and nondisplay limit orders for order execution. A price impact model is postulated and the corresponding scheduling algorithm is derived. In the case where nondisplay limit order (hidden order) is used, there is a time which separates the trading horizon into two regimes: the former only uses hidden order, and the latter uses the mixture of limit and hidden orders. The effectiveness and robustness of the algorithm is shown via numerical testing in both simulated data and NASDAQ 100 Index data.Open Acces

Infusing the Multiple Intelligences into Fifth Grade Curriculum

Howard Gardner\u27s theory of Multiple Intelligences involves eight different ways to learn (linguistic, logical-mathematical, visual-spatial, bodily-kinesthetic, musical, naturalistic, interpersonal and intrapersonal). These categories of intelligence, along with the guidelines of Washington State\u27s Essential Academic Leaming Requirements, were applied to thirty lessons that were derived from the fifth grade curriculum at Tieton Middle School in Tieton, Washington. The lessons reflect the fields of reading, writing, mathematics, science, social studies and health/fitness

Scalarized Preferences in Multi-objective Optimization

Multikriterielle Optimierungsprobleme verfügen über keine Lösung, die optimal in jeder Zielfunktion ist. Die Schwierigkeit solcher Probleme liegt darin eine Kompromisslösung zu finden, die den Präferenzen des Entscheiders genügen, der den Kompromiss implementiert. Skalarisierung – die Abbildung des Vektors der Zielfunktionswerte auf eine reelle Zahl – identifiziert eine einzige Lösung als globales Präferenzenoptimum um diese Probleme zu lösen. Allerdings generieren Skalarisierungsmethoden keine zusätzlichen Informationen über andere Kompromisslösungen, die die Präferenzen des Entscheiders bezüglich des globalen Optimums verändern könnten. Um dieses Problem anzugehen stellt diese Dissertation eine theoretische und algorithmische Analyse skalarisierter Präferenzen bereit. Die theoretische Analyse besteht aus der Entwicklung eines Ordnungsrahmens, der Präferenzen als Problemtransformationen charakterisiert, die präferierte Untermengen der Paretofront definieren. Skalarisierung wird als Transformation der Zielmenge in diesem Ordnungsrahmen dargestellt. Des Weiteren werden Axiome vorgeschlagen, die wünschenswerte Eigenschaften von Skalarisierungsfunktionen darstellen. Es wird gezeigt unter welchen Bedingungen existierende Skalarisierungsfunktionen diese Axiome erfüllen. Die algorithmische Analyse kennzeichnet Präferenzen anhand des Resultats, das ein Optimierungsalgorithmus generiert. Zwei neue Paradigmen werden innerhalb dieser Analyse identifiziert. Für beide Paradigmen werden Algorithmen entworfen, die skalarisierte Präferenzeninformationen verwenden: Präferenzen-verzerrte Paretofrontapproximationen verteilen Punkte über die gesamte Paretofront, fokussieren aber mehr Punkte in Regionen mit besseren Skalarisierungswerten; multimodale Präferenzenoptima sind Punkte, die lokale Skalarisierungsoptima im Zielraum darstellen. Ein Drei-Stufen-Algorith\-mus wird entwickelt, der lokale Skalarisierungsoptima approximiert und verschiedene Methoden werden für die unterschiedlichen Stufen evaluiert. Zwei Realweltprobleme werden vorgestellt, die die Nützlichkeit der beiden Algorithmen illustrieren. Das erste Problem besteht darin Fahrpläne für ein Blockheizkraftwerk zu finden, die die erzeugte Elektrizität und Wärme maximieren und den Kraftstoffverbrauch minimiert. Präferenzen-verzerrte Approximationen generieren mehr Energie-effiziente Lösungen, unter denen der Entscheider seine favorisierte Lösung auswählen kann, indem er die Konflikte zwischen den drei Zielen abwägt. Das zweite Problem beschäftigt sich mit der Erstellung von Fahrplänen für Geräte in einem Wohngebäude, so dass Energiekosten, Kohlenstoffdioxidemissionen und thermisches Unbehagen minimiert werden. Es wird gezeigt, dass lokale Skalarisierungsoptima Fahrpläne darstellen, die eine gute Balance zwischen den drei Zielen bieten. Die Analyse und die Experimente, die in dieser Arbeit vorgestellt werden, ermöglichen es Entscheidern bessere Entscheidungen zu treffen indem Methoden angewendet werden, die mehr Optionen generieren, die mit den Präferenzen der Entscheider übereinstimmen

Antecipação na tomada de decisão com múltiplos critérios sob incerteza

Orientador: Fernando José Von ZubenTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de ComputaçãoResumo: A presença de incerteza em resultados futuros pode levar a indecisões em processos de escolha, especialmente ao elicitar as importâncias relativas de múltiplos critérios de decisão e de desempenhos de curto vs. longo prazo. Algumas decisões, no entanto, devem ser tomadas sob informação incompleta, o que pode resultar em ações precipitadas com consequências imprevisíveis. Quando uma solução deve ser selecionada sob vários pontos de vista conflitantes para operar em ambientes ruidosos e variantes no tempo, implementar alternativas provisórias flexíveis pode ser fundamental para contornar a falta de informação completa, mantendo opções futuras em aberto. A engenharia antecipatória pode então ser considerada como a estratégia de conceber soluções flexíveis as quais permitem aos tomadores de decisão responder de forma robusta a cenários imprevisíveis. Essa estratégia pode, assim, mitigar os riscos de, sem intenção, se comprometer fortemente a alternativas incertas, ao mesmo tempo em que aumenta a adaptabilidade às mudanças futuras. Nesta tese, os papéis da antecipação e da flexibilidade na automação de processos de tomada de decisão sequencial com múltiplos critérios sob incerteza é investigado. O dilema de atribuir importâncias relativas aos critérios de decisão e a recompensas imediatas sob informação incompleta é então tratado pela antecipação autônoma de decisões flexíveis capazes de preservar ao máximo a diversidade de escolhas futuras. Uma metodologia de aprendizagem antecipatória on-line é então proposta para melhorar a variedade e qualidade dos conjuntos futuros de soluções de trade-off. Esse objetivo é alcançado por meio da previsão de conjuntos de máximo hipervolume esperado, para a qual as capacidades de antecipação de metaheurísticas multi-objetivo são incrementadas com rastreamento bayesiano em ambos os espaços de busca e dos objetivos. A metodologia foi aplicada para a obtenção de decisões de investimento, as quais levaram a melhoras significativas do hipervolume futuro de conjuntos de carteiras financeiras de trade-off avaliadas com dados de ações fora da amostra de treino, quando comparada a uma estratégia míope. Além disso, a tomada de decisões flexíveis para o rebalanceamento de carteiras foi confirmada como uma estratégia significativamente melhor do que a de escolher aleatoriamente uma decisão de investimento a partir da fronteira estocástica eficiente evoluída, em todos os mercados artificiais e reais testados. Finalmente, os resultados sugerem que a antecipação de opções flexíveis levou a composições de carteiras que se mostraram significativamente correlacionadas com as melhorias observadas no hipervolume futuro esperado, avaliado com dados fora das amostras de treinoAbstract: The presence of uncertainty in future outcomes can lead to indecision in choice processes, especially when eliciting the relative importances of multiple decision criteria and of long-term vs. near-term performance. Some decisions, however, must be taken under incomplete information, what may result in precipitated actions with unforeseen consequences. When a solution must be selected under multiple conflicting views for operating in time-varying and noisy environments, implementing flexible provisional alternatives can be critical to circumvent the lack of complete information by keeping future options open. Anticipatory engineering can be then regarded as the strategy of designing flexible solutions that enable decision makers to respond robustly to unpredictable scenarios. This strategy can thus mitigate the risks of strong unintended commitments to uncertain alternatives, while increasing adaptability to future changes. In this thesis, the roles of anticipation and of flexibility on automating sequential multiple criteria decision-making processes under uncertainty are investigated. The dilemma of assigning relative importances to decision criteria and to immediate rewards under incomplete information is then handled by autonomously anticipating flexible decisions predicted to maximally preserve diversity of future choices. An online anticipatory learning methodology is then proposed for improving the range and quality of future trade-off solution sets. This goal is achieved by predicting maximal expected hypervolume sets, for which the anticipation capabilities of multi-objective metaheuristics are augmented with Bayesian tracking in both the objective and search spaces. The methodology has been applied for obtaining investment decisions that are shown to significantly improve the future hypervolume of trade-off financial portfolios for out-of-sample stock data, when compared to a myopic strategy. Moreover, implementing flexible portfolio rebalancing decisions was confirmed as a significantly better strategy than to randomly choosing an investment decision from the evolved stochastic efficient frontier in all tested artificial and real-world markets. Finally, the results suggest that anticipating flexible choices has lead to portfolio compositions that are significantly correlated with the observed improvements in out-of-sample future expected hypervolumeDoutoradoEngenharia de ComputaçãoDoutor em Engenharia Elétric