Predictive Analytics to Increase Roster Robustness in an Inbound Call Center

Staff rostering is a crucial task in inbound call centers, as personnel costs usually account for the largest share of operating costs. Uncertainty of capacity, such as the presence of agents is often disregarded during rostering. This paper addresses the problem of uncertainty by using predictive analytics to predict agent absences and thus increase roster robustness. Operational data from four years of a call center serves as a basis for our use case. Predictors include characteristics of the service agents such as attendance history and regular working hours as well as other factors such as the weekday. Of the prediction algorithms tested, decision trees outperform other predictive modeling approaches. Evaluation based on an expected value framework shows that the predictive analytics approach performs best compared to the planned, unchanged roster and a general staff surcharge of 10%

A Hybrid ant colony optimization algorithm for solving a highly constrained nurse rostering problem

Distribution of work shifts and off days to nurses in a duty roster is a crucial task. In hospital wards, much effort is spent trying to produce workable and quality rosters for their nurses. However, there are cases, such as mandatory working days per week and balanced distribution of shift types that could not be achieved in the manually generated rosters, which are still being practiced. Hence, this study focused on solving those issues arising in nurse rostering problems (NRPs) strategizing on a hybrid of Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm with a hill climbing technique. The hybridization with the hill climbing is aiming at fine-tuning the initial solution or roster generated by the ACO algorithm to achieve better rosters. The hybrid model is developed with the goal of satisfying the hard constraints, while minimizing the violation of soft constraints in such a way that fulfill hospital’s rules and nurses’ preferences. The real data used for this highly constrained NRPs was obtained from a large Malaysian hospital. Specifically, three main phases were involved in developing the hybrid model, which are generating an initial roster, updating the roster through the ACO algorithm, and implementing the hill climbing to further search for a refined solution. The results show that at a larger value of pheromone, the chance of obtaining a good solution was found with only small penalty values. This study has proven that the hybrid ACO is able to solve NRPs with good potential solutions that fulfilled all the four important criteria, which are coverage, quality, flexibility, and cost. Subsequently, the hybrid model is also beneficial to the hospital’s management whereby nurses can be scheduled with balanced distribution of shifts, which fulfill their preferences as well

Evolving comprehensible and scalable solvers using CGP for solving some real-world inspired problems

My original contribution to knowledge is the application of Cartesian Genetic Programming to design some scalable and human-understandable metaheuristics automatically; those find some suitable solutions for real-world NP-hard and discrete problems. This technique is thought to possess the ability to raise the generality of a problem-solving process, allowing some supervised machine learning tasks and being able to evolve non-deterministic algorithms. \\ Two extensions of Cartesian Genetic Programming are presented. Iterative My original contribution to knowledge is the application of Cartesian Genetic Programming to design some scalable and human-understandable metaheuristics automatically; those find some suitable solutions for real-world NP-hard and discrete problems. This technique is thought to possess the ability to raise the generality of a problem-solving process, allowing some supervised machine learning tasks and being able to evolve non-deterministic algorithms. \\ Two extensions of Cartesian Genetic Programming are presented. Iterative Cartesian Genetic Programming can encode loops and nested loop with their termination criteria, making susceptible to evolutionary modification the whole programming construct. This newly developed extension and its application to metaheuristics are demonstrated to discover effective solvers for NP-hard and discrete problems. This thesis also extends Cartesian Genetic Programming and Iterative Cartesian Genetic Programming to adapt a hyper-heuristic reproductive operator at the same time of exploring the automatic design space. It is demonstrated the exploration of an automated design space can be improved when specific types of active and non-active genes are mutated. \\ A series of rigorous empirical investigations demonstrate that lowering the comprehension barrier of automatically designed algorithms can help communicating and identifying an effective and ineffective pattern of primitives. The complete evolution of loops and nested loops without imposing a hard limit on the number of recursive calls is shown to broaden the automatic design space. Finally, it is argued the capability of a learning objective function to assess the scalable potential of a generated algorithm can be beneficial to a generative hyper-heuristic

Metaheuristic Design Patterns: New Perspectives for Larger-Scale Search Architectures

Design patterns capture the essentials of recurring best practice in an abstract form. Their merits are well established in domains as diverse as architecture and software development. They offer significant benefits, not least a common conceptual vocabulary for designers, enabling greater communication of high-level concerns and increased software reuse. Inspired by the success of software design patterns, this chapter seeks to promote the merits of a pattern-based method to the development of metaheuristic search software components. To achieve this, a catalog of patterns is presented, organized into the families of structural, behavioral, methodological and component-based patterns. As an alternative to the increasing specialization associated with individual metaheuristic search components, the authors encourage computer scientists to embrace the ‘cross cutting' benefits of a pattern-based perspective to optimization algorithms. Some ways in which the patterns might form the basis of further larger-scale metaheuristic component design automation are also discussed

Data-driven Algorithm for Scheduling with Total Tardiness

In this paper, we investigate the use of deep learning for solving a classical NP-Hard single machine scheduling problem where the criterion is to minimize the total tardiness. Instead of designing an end-to-end machine learning model, we utilize well known decomposition of the problem and we enhance it with a data-driven approach. We have designed a regressor containing a deep neural network that learns and predicts the criterion of a given set of jobs. The network acts as a polynomial-time estimator of the criterion that is used in a single-pass scheduling algorithm based on Lawler's decomposition theorem. Essentially, the regressor guides the algorithm to select the best position for each job. The experimental results show that our data-driven approach can efficiently generalize information from the training phase to significantly larger instances (up to 350 jobs) where it achieves an optimality gap of about 0.5%, which is four times less than the gap of the state-of-the-art NBR heuristic

A review on the self and dual interactions between machine learning and optimisation

Machine learning and optimisation are two growing fields of artificial intelligence with an enormous number of computer science applications. The techniques in the former area aim to learn knowledge from data or experience, while the techniques from the latter search for the best option or solution to a given problem. To employ these techniques automatically and effectively aligning with the real aim of artificial intelligence, both sets of techniques are frequently hybridised, interacting with each other and themselves. This study focuses on such interactions aiming at (1) presenting a broad overview of the studies on self and dual interactions between machine learning and optimisation; (2) providing a useful tutorial for researchers and practitioners in both fields in support of collaborative work through investigation of the recent advances and analyses of the advantages and disadvantages of different techniques to tackle the same or similar problems; (3) clarifying the overlapping terminologies having different meanings used in both fields; (4) identifying research gaps and potential research directions

AIRO 2016. 46th Annual Conference of the Italian Operational Research Society. Emerging Advances in Logistics Systems Trieste, September 6-9, 2016 - Abstracts Book

The AIRO 2016 book of abstract collects the contributions from the conference participants. The AIRO 2016 Conference is a special occasion for the Italian Operations Research community, as AIRO annual conferences turn 46th edition in 2016. To reflect this special occasion, the Programme and Organizing Committee, chaired by Walter Ukovich, prepared a high quality Scientific Programme including the first initiative of AIRO Young, the new AIRO poster section that aims to promote the work of students, PhD students, and Postdocs with an interest in Operations Research. The Scientific Programme of the Conference offers a broad spectrum of contributions covering the variety of OR topics and research areas with an emphasis on “Emerging Advances in Logistics Systems”. The event aims at stimulating integration of existing methods and systems, fostering communication amongst different research groups, and laying the foundations for OR integrated research projects in the next decade. Distinct thematic sections follow the AIRO 2016 days starting by initial presentation of the objectives and features of the Conference. In addition three invited internationally known speakers will present Plenary Lectures, by Gianni Di Pillo, Frédéric Semet e Stefan Nickel, gathering AIRO 2016 participants together to offer key presentations on the latest advances and developments in OR’s research

Parameter-less Late Acceptance Hill-climbing: Foundations & Applications.

PhD Theses.Stochastic Local Search (SLS) methods have been used to solve complex hard combinatorial problems in a number of elds. Their judicious use of randomization, arguably, simpli es their design to achieve robust algorithm behaviour in domains where little is known. This feature makes them a general purpose approach for tackling complex problems. However, their performance, usually, depends on a number of parameters that should be speci ed by the user. Most of these parameters are search-algorithm related and have little to do with the user's problem. This thesis presents search techniques for combinatorial problems that have fewer parameters while delivering good anytime performance. Their parameters are set automatically by the algorithm itself in an intelligent way, while making sure that they use the entire given time budget to explore the search space with a high probability of avoiding the stagnation in a single basin of attraction. These algorithms are suitable for general practitioners in industry that do not have deep insight into search methodologies and their parameter tuning. Note that, to all intents and purposes, in realworld search problems the aim is to nd a good enough quality solution in a pre-de ned time. In order to achieve this, we use a technique that was originally introduced for automating population sizing in evolutionary algorithms. In an intelligent way, we adapted it to a particular one-point stochastic local search algorithm, namely Late Acceptance Hill-Climbing (LAHC), to eliminate the need to manually specify the value of the sole parameter of this algorithm. We then develop a mathematically sound dynamic cuto time strategy that is able to reliably detect the stagnation point for these search algorithms. We evaluated the suitability and scalability of the proposed methods on a range of classical combinatorial optimization problems as well as a real-world software engineering proble