Stochastic Dynamics of Cascading Failures in Electric-Cyber Infrastructures

Emerging smart grids consist of tightly-coupled systems, namely a power grid and a communication system. While today\u27s power grids are highly reliable and modern control and communication systems have been deployed to further enhance their reliability, historical data suggest that they are yet vulnerable to large failures. A small set of initial disturbances in power grids in conjunction with lack of effective, corrective actions in a timely manner can trigger a sequence of dependent component failures, called cascading failures. The main thrust of this dissertation is to build a probabilistic framework for modeling cascading failures in power grids while capturing their interactions with the coupled communication systems so that the risk of cascading failures in the composite complex electric-cyber infrastructures can be examined, analyzed and predicted. A scalable and analytically tractable continuous-time Markov chain model for stochastic dynamics of cascading failures in power grids is constructed while retaining key physical attributes and operating characteristics of the power grid. The key idea of the proposed framework is to simplify the state space of the complex power system while capturing the effects of the omitted variables through the transition probabilities and their parametric dependence on physical attributes and operating characteristics of the system. In particular, the effects of the interdependencies between the power grid and the communication system have been captured by a parametric formulation of the transition probabilities using Monte-Carlo simulations of cascading failures. The cascading failures are simulated with a coupled power-system simulation framework, which is also developed in this dissertation. Specifically, the probabilistic model enables the prediction of the evolution of the blackout probability in time. Furthermore, the asymptotic analysis of the blackout probability as time tends to infinity enables the calculation of the probability mass function of the blackout size, which has been shown to have a heavy tail, e.g., power-law distribution, specifically when the grid is operating under stress scenarios. A key benefit of the model is that it enables the characterization of the severity of cascading failures in terms of a set of operating characteristics of the power grid. As a generalization to the Markov chain model, a regeneration-based model for cascading failures is also developed. The regeneration-based framework is capable of modeling cascading failures in a more general setting where the probability distribution of events in the system follows an arbitrarily specified distribution with non-Markovian characteristics. Further, a novel interdependent Markov chain model is developed, which provides a general probabilistic framework for capturing the effects of interactions among interdependent infrastructures on cascading failures. A key insight obtained from this model is that interdependencies between two systems can make two individually reliable systems behave unreliably. In particular, we show that due to the interdependencies two chains with non-heavy tail asymptotic failure distribution can result in a heavy tail distribution when coupled. Lastly, another aspect of future smart grids is studied by characterizing the fundamental bounds on the information rate in the sensor network that monitors the power grid. Specifically, a distributed source coding framework is presented that enables an improved estimate of the lower bound for the minimum required communication capacity to accurately describe the state of components in the information-centric power grid. The models developed in this dissertation provide critical understanding of cascading failures in electric-cyber infrastructures and facilitate reliable and quick detection of the risk of blackouts and precursors to cascading failures. These capabilities can guide the design of efficient communication systems and cascade aware control policies for future smart grids

Statistical Physics of Design

Modern life increasingly relies on complex products that perform a variety of functions. The key difficulty of creating such products lies not in the manufacturing process, but in the design process. However, design problems are typically driven by multiple contradictory objectives and different stakeholders, have no obvious stopping criteria, and frequently prevent construction of prototypes or experiments. Such ill-defined, or "wicked" problems cannot be "solved" in the traditional sense with optimization methods. Instead, modern design techniques are focused on generating knowledge about the alternative solutions in the design space. In order to facilitate such knowledge generation, in this dissertation I develop the "Systems Physics" framework that treats the emergent structures within the design space as physical objects that interact via quantifiable forces. Mathematically, Systems Physics is based on maximal entropy statistical mechanics, which allows both drawing conceptual analogies between design problems and collective phenomena and performing numerical calculations to gain quantitative understanding. Systems Physics operates via a Model-Compute-Learn loop, with each step refining our thinking of design problems. I demonstrate the capabilities of Systems Physics in two very distinct case studies: Naval Engineering and self-assembly. For the Naval Engineering case, I focus on an established problem of arranging shipboard systems within the available hull space. I demonstrate the essential trade-off between minimizing the routing cost and maximizing the design flexibility, which can lead to abrupt phase transitions. I show how the design space can break into several locally optimal architecture classes that have very different robustness to external couplings. I illustrate how the topology of the shipboard functional network enters a tight interplay with the spatial constraints on placement. For the self-assembly problem, I show that the topology of self-assembled structures can be reliably encoded in the properties of the building blocks so that the structure and the blocks can be jointly designed. The work presented here provides both conceptual and quantitative advancements. In order to properly port the language and the formalism of statistical mechanics to the design domain, I critically re-examine such foundational ideas as system-bath coupling, coarse graining, particle distinguishability, and direct and emergent interactions. I show that the design space can be packed into a special information structure, a tensor network, which allows seamless transition from graphical visualization to sophisticated numerical calculations. This dissertation provides the first quantitative treatment of the design problem that is not reduced to the narrow goals of mathematical optimization. Using statistical mechanics perspective allows me to move beyond the dichotomy of "forward" and "inverse" design and frame design as a knowledge generation process instead. Such framing opens the way to further studies of the design space structures and the time- and path-dependent phenomena in design. The present work also benefits from, and contributes to the philosophical interpretations of statistical mechanics developed by the soft matter community in the past 20 years. The discussion goes far beyond physics and engages with literature from materials science, naval engineering, optimization problems, design theory, network theory, and economic complexity.PHDPhysicsUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/163133/1/aklishin_1.pd

Optimizing Interconnectivity among Networks under Attacks

Networks may need to be interconnected for various reasons such as inter-organizational communication, redundant connectivity, increasing data-rate and minimizing delay or packet-loss, etc. However, the trustworthiness of an added interconnection link cannot be taken for granted due to the presence of attackers who may compromise the security of an interconnected network by intercepting the interconnections. Namely, an intercepted interconnection link may not be secured due to the data manipulations by attackers. In the first part of this dissertation, the number of interconnections between the two networks is optimized for maximizing the data-rate and minimizing the packet-loss under the threat of security attacks. The optimization of the interconnectivity considering the security attack is formulated using a rate-distortion optimization setting, as originally introduced by Claude E. Shannon in the information theory. In particular, each intercepted interconnection is modeled as a noisy communication channel where the attackers may manipulate the data by flipping and erasing of data bits, and then the total capacity for any given number of interconnections is calculated. By exploiting such formulation, the optimal number of interconnections between two networks is found under network administrators data-rate and packet-loss requirement, and most importantly, without compromising the data security. It is concluded analytically and verified by simulations under certain conditions, increasing interconnections beyond an optimal number would not be beneficial concerning the data-rates and packet-loss. In the second part of this dissertation, the vulnerability of the interconnected network is analyzed by a probabilistic model that maps the intensity of physical attacks to network component failure distributions. Also, assuming the network is susceptible to the attack propagation, the resiliency of the network is modeled by the influence model and epidemic model. Finally, a stochastic model is proposed to track the node failure dynamics in a network considering dependency with power failures. Besides, the cascading failure in the power grid is analyzed with a data-driven model that reproduces the evolution of power-transmission line failure in power grids. To summarize, the optimal interconnectivity among networks is analyzed under security attacks, and the dynamic interactions in an interconnected network are investigated under various physical and logical attacks. The proper application of this work would add the minimum number of inter-network connections between two networks without compromising the data security. The optimal number interconnections would meet network administrator’s requirement and minimize cost (both security and monetary) associated with unnecessary connections. This work can also be used to estimate the reliability of a communication network under different types of physical attacks independently and also by incorporating the dynamics of power failures

Data based identification and prediction of nonlinear and complex dynamical systems

We thank Dr. R. Yang (formerly at ASU), Dr. R.-Q. Su (formerly at ASU), and Mr. Zhesi Shen for their contributions to a number of original papers on which this Review is partly based. This work was supported by ARO under Grant No. W911NF-14-1-0504. W.-X. Wang was also supported by NSFC under Grants No. 61573064 and No. 61074116, as well as by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, Beijing Nova Programme.Peer reviewedPostprin

Resilience of the Critical Communication Networks Against Spreading Failures: Case of the European National and Research Networks

A backbone network is the central part of the communication network, which provides connectivity within the various systems across large distances. Disruptions in a backbone network would cause severe consequences which could manifest in the service outage on a large scale. Depending on the size and the importance of the network, its failure could leave a substantial impact on the area it is associated with. The failures of the network services could lead to a significant disturbance of human activities. Therefore, making backbone communication networks more resilient directly affects the resilience of the area. Contemporary urban and regional development overwhelmingly converges with the communication infrastructure expansion and their obvious mutual interconnections become more reciprocal. Spreading failures are of particular interest. They usually originate in a single network segment and then spread to the rest of network often causing a global collapse. Two types of spreading failures are given focus, namely: epidemics and cascading failures. How to make backbone networks more resilient against spreading failures? How to tune the topology or additionally protect nodes or links in order to mitigate an effect of the potential failure? Those are the main questions addressed in this thesis. First, the epidemic phenomena are discussed. The subjects of epidemic modeling and identification of the most influential spreaders are addressed using a proposed Linear Time-Invariant (LTI) system approach. Throughout the years, LTI system theory has been used mostly to describe electrical circuits and networks. LTI is suitable to characterize the behavior of the system consisting of numerous interconnected components. The results presented in this thesis show that the same mathematical toolbox could be used for the complex network analysis. Then, cascading failures are discussed. Like any system which can be modeled using an interdependence graph with limited capacity of either nodes or edges, backbone networks are prone to cascades. Numerical simulations are used to model such failures. The resilience of European National Research and Education Networks (NREN) is assessed, weak points and critical areas of the network are identified and the suggestions for its modification are proposed

Critical Services continuity, Resilience and Security: Proceedings of the 56th ESReDA Seminar

Critical Infrastructures (CIs) remain among the most important and vital service providers to modern societies. Severe CIs’ disruptions may endanger security of the citizen, availability of strategic assets and even the governance stability. Not surprisingly, CIs are often targets of intentional attacks, either of physical or cyber nature. Newly emerging hybrid threats primarily target CIs as part of the warfare. ESReDA as one of the most active EU networks in the field has initiated a project group (CI-PR/MS&A-Data) on the “Critical Infrastructure/Modelling, Simulation and Analysis – Data”. The main focus of the project group is to report on the state of progress in MS&A of the CIs preparedness & resilience with a specific focus on the corresponding data availability and relevance. In order to report on the most recent developments in the field of the CIs preparedness & resilience MS&A and the availability of the relevant data, ESReDA held its 48th, 52nd and 56th Seminars. The 56th ESReDA Seminar on “Critical Services continuity, Resilience and Security” attracted about 30 participants from industry, authorities, operators, research centres and academia. The seminar programme consisted of 18 technical papers, two plenary speeches and an interactive session on Climate & CI protection.JRC.G.10-Knowledge for Nuclear Security and Safet

Computation in Complex Networks

Complex networks are one of the most challenging research focuses of disciplines, including physics, mathematics, biology, medicine, engineering, and computer science, among others. The interest in complex networks is increasingly growing, due to their ability to model several daily life systems, such as technology networks, the Internet, and communication, chemical, neural, social, political and financial networks. The Special Issue “Computation in Complex Networks" of Entropy offers a multidisciplinary view on how some complex systems behave, providing a collection of original and high-quality papers within the research fields of: • Community detection • Complex network modelling • Complex network analysis • Node classification • Information spreading and control • Network robustness • Social networks • Network medicin