Investigation of Air Transportation Technology at Princeton University, 1989-1990

The Air Transportation Technology Program at Princeton University proceeded along six avenues during the past year: microburst hazards to aircraft; machine-intelligent, fault tolerant flight control; computer aided heuristics for piloted flight; stochastic robustness for flight control systems; neural networks for flight control; and computer aided control system design. These topics are briefly discussed, and an annotated bibliography of publications that appeared between January 1989 and June 1990 is given

Evaluation of advanced optimisation methods for estimating Mixed Logit models

The performances of different simulation-based estimation techniques for mixed logit modeling are evaluated. A quasi-Monte Carlo method (modified Latin hypercube sampling) is compared with a Monte Carlo algorithm with dynamic accuracy. The classic Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) optimization algorithm line-search approach and trust region methods, which have proved to be extremely powerful in nonlinear programming, are also compared. Numerical tests are performed on two real data sets: stated preference data for parking type collected in the United Kingdom, and revealed preference data for mode choice collected as part of a German travel diary survey. Several criteria are used to evaluate the approximation quality of the log likelihood function and the accuracy of the results and the associated estimation runtime. Results suggest that the trust region approach outperforms the BFGS approach and that Monte Carlo methods remain competitive with quasi-Monte Carlo methods in high-dimensional problems, especially when an adaptive optimization algorithm is used

Affine arithmetic-based methodology for energy hub operation-scheduling in the presence of data uncertainty

In this study, the role of self-validated computing for solving the energy hub-scheduling problem in the presence of multiple and heterogeneous sources of data uncertainties is explored and a new solution paradigm based on affine arithmetic is conceptualised. The benefits deriving from the application of this methodology are analysed in details, and several numerical results are presented and discussed

Optimisation of electricity energy markets and assessment of CO2 trading on their structure : a stochastic analysis of the greek power sector

Power production was traditionally dominated by monopolies. After a long period of research and organisational advances in international level, electricity markets have been deregulated allowing customers to choose their provider and new producers to compete the former Public Power Companies. Vast changes have been made in the European legal framework but still, the experience gathered is not sufficient to derive safe conclusions regarding the efficiency and reliability of deregulation. Furthermore, emissions' trading progressively becomes a reality in many respects, compliance with Kyoto protocol's targets is a necessity, and stability of the national grid's operation is a constraint of vital importance. Consequently, the production of electricity should not rely solely in conventional energy sources neither in renewable ones but on a mixed structure. Finding this optimal mix is the primary objective of the study. A computational tool has been created, that simulates and optimises the future electricity generation structure based on existing as well as on emerging technologies. The results focus on the Greek Power Sector and indicate a gradual decreasing of anticipated CO2 emissions while the socioeconomic constraints and reliability requirements of the system are met. Policy interventions are pointed out based on the numerical results of the model. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Randomized Constraints Consensus for Distributed Robust Linear Programming

In this paper we consider a network of processors aiming at cooperatively solving linear programming problems subject to uncertainty. Each node only knows a common cost function and its local uncertain constraint set. We propose a randomized, distributed algorithm working under time-varying, asynchronous and directed communication topology. The algorithm is based on a local computation and communication paradigm. At each communication round, nodes perform two updates: (i) a verification in which they check-in a randomized setup-the robust feasibility (and hence optimality) of the candidate optimal point, and (ii) an optimization step in which they exchange their candidate bases (minimal sets of active constraints) with neighbors and locally solve an optimization problem whose constraint set includes: a sampled constraint violating the candidate optimal point (if it exists), agent's current basis and the collection of neighbor's basis. As main result, we show that if a processor successfully performs the verification step for a sufficient number of communication rounds, it can stop the algorithm since a consensus has been reached. The common solution is-with high confidence-feasible (and hence optimal) for the entire set of uncertainty except a subset having arbitrary small probability measure. We show the effectiveness of the proposed distributed algorithm on a multi-core platform in which the nodes communicate asynchronously.Comment: Accepted for publication in the 20th World Congress of the International Federation of Automatic Control (IFAC

Multi-objective biopharma capacity planning under uncertainty using a flexible genetic algorithm approach

This paper presents a flexible genetic algorithm optimisation approach for multi-objective biopharmaceutical planning problems under uncertainty. The optimisation approach combines a continuous-time heuristic model of a biopharmaceutical manufacturing process, a variable-length multi-objective genetic algorithm, and Graphics Processing Unit (GPU)-accelerated Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed approach accounts for constraints and features such as rolling product sequence-dependent changeovers, multiple intermediate demand due dates, product QC/QA release times, and pressure to meet uncertain product demand on time. An industrially-relevant case study is used to illustrate the functionality of the approach. The case study focused on optimisation of conflicting objectives, production throughput, and product inventory levels, for a multi-product biopharmaceutical facility over a 3-year period with uncertain product demand. The advantages of the multi-objective GA with the embedded Monte Carlo simulation were demonstrated by comparison with a deterministic GA tested with Monte Carlo simulation post-optimisation

Robust Model Predictive Control for Signal Temporal Logic Synthesis

Most automated systems operate in uncertain or adversarial conditions, and have to be capable of reliably reacting to changes in the environment. The focus of this paper is on automatically synthesizing reactive controllers for cyber-physical systems subject to signal temporal logic (STL) specifications. We build on recent work that encodes STL specifications as mixed integer linear constraints on the variables of a discrete-time model of the system and environment dynamics. To obtain a reactive controller, we present solutions to the worst-case model predictive control (MPC) problem using a suite of mixed integer linear programming techniques. We demonstrate the comparative effectiveness of several existing worst-case MPC techniques, when applied to the problem of control subject to temporal logic specifications; our empirical results emphasize the need to develop specialized solutions for this domain

Ranking Alternatives on the Basis of a Dominance Intensity Measure

The additive multi-attribute utility model is widely used within MultiAttribute Utility Theory (MAUT), demanding all the information describing the decision-making situation. However, these information requirements can obviously be far too strict in many practical situations. Consequently, incomplete information about input parameters has been incorporated into the decisionmaking process. We propose an approach based on a dominance intensity measure to deal with such situations. The approach is based on the dominance values between pairs of alternatives that can be computed by linear programming. These dominance values are transformed into dominance intensities from which a dominance intensity measure is derived. It is used to analyze the robustness of a ranking of technologies for the disposition of surplus weapons-grade plutonium by the Department of Energy in the USA, and compared with other dominance measuring methods

Multi-period, multi-product production planning in an uncertain manufacturing environment

Les travaux de cette thèse portent sur la planification de la production multi-produits, multi-périodes avec des incertitudes de la qualité de la matière première et de la demande. Un modèle de programmation stochastique à deux étapes avec recours est tout d'abord proposé pour la prise en compte de la non-homogénéité de la matière première, et par conséquent, de l'aspect aléatoire des rendements de processus. Ces derniers sont modélisés sous forme de scénarios décrits par une distribution de probabilité stationnaire. La méthodologie adoptée est basée sur la méthode d'approximation par moyenne d'échantillonnage. L'approche est appliquée pour planifier la production dans une unité de sciage de bois et le modèle stochastique est validé par simulation de Monte Carlo. Les résultats numériques obtenus dans le cas d'une scierie de capacité moyenne montrent la viabilité de notre modèle stochastique, en comparaison au modèle équivalent déterministe. Ensuite, pour répondre aux préoccupations du preneur de décision en matière de robustesse, nous proposons deux modèles d'optimisation robuste utilisant chacun une mesure de variabilité du niveau de service différente. Un cadre de décision est développé pour choisir parmi les deux modèles d'optimisation robuste, en tenant compte du niveau du risque jugé acceptable quand à la variabilité du niveau de service. La supériorité de l'approche d'optimisation robuste, par rapport à la programmation stochastique, est confirmée dans le cas d'une usine de sciage de bois. Finalement, nous proposons un modèle de programmation stochastique qui tient compte à la fois du caractère aléatoire de la demande et du rendement. L'incertitude de la demande est modélisée par un processus stochastique dynamique qui est représenté par un arbre de scénarios. Des scénarios de rendement sont ensuite intégrés dans chaque noeud de l'arbre de scénarios de la demande, constituant ainsi un arbre hybride de scénarios. Nous proposons un modèle de programmation stochastique multi-étapes qui utilise un recours complet pour les scénarios de la demande et un recours simple pour les scénarios du rendement. Ce modèle est également appliqué au cas industriel d'une scierie et les résultats numériques obtenus montrent la supériorité du modèle stochastique multi- étapes, en comparaison avec le modèle équivalent déterministe et le modèle stochastique à deux étapes