Earnings management and cultural values

Using theory and empirical data from social psychology to measure for cultural differences between countries, we study the effect of individualism as defined by Hofstede (1980) and egalitarianism as defined by Schwartz (1994, 1999, 2004) on earnings management. We find a significant influence of both cultural measures. In line with Licht et al. (2004), who argue that individualistic societies may be less susceptible to corruption, we find that countries scoring high on individualism tend to have lower levels of earnings management. In addition, we find that egalitarianism, defined as a society's cultural orientation with respect to intolerance for abuses of market and political power, is negatively related with earnings management. Our results are robust to different specifications and controls. The main message of this paper is that besides formal institutions, cultural differences are relevant to explain earnings management behaviour. We think that our work adds to the understanding of the importance of cultural values in managerial behaviour across countries contributing to the literature on earnings management and law and institutions

Agent-based modelling and Swarm Intelligence in systems engineering

El objetivo de la tesis doctoral es evaluar la utilidad de las técnicas Modelado Basado en Agentes, algoritmos de optimización Swarm Intelligence y programación paralela sobre tarjeta gráfica en el campo de la Ingeniería de Sistemas y Automática. Se ha realizado un revisión bibliográfica y desarrollado un marco de desarrollo de la técnica de Modelado Basado en Agentes. Esta técnica se ha empleado para realizar un modelo de un reactor de fangos activados (que se engloba dentro del proceso de depuración de aguas residuales). Se ha desarrollado una notación complementaria para la descripción de modelos basados en agentes desde el punto de vista de la ingeniería de sistemas. Se ha presentado asimismo un algoritmo de optimización basado en agentes bajo la filosofía Swarm Intelligence. Se han trabajado con las técnicas de paralelización sobre tarjeta gráfica para reducir los tiempos de simulación de modelos y algoritmos. Se trata por lo tanto de un tesis de integración de varias tecnologías.Departamento de Ingeniería de Sistemas y Automátic

A Nonparametric Bayesian Approach to Copula Estimation

We propose a novel Dirichlet-based P\'olya tree (D-P tree) prior on the copula and based on the D-P tree prior, a nonparametric Bayesian inference procedure. Through theoretical analysis and simulations, we are able to show that the flexibility of the D-P tree prior ensures its consistency in copula estimation, thus able to detect more subtle and complex copula structures than earlier nonparametric Bayesian models, such as a Gaussian copula mixture. Further, the continuity of the imposed D-P tree prior leads to a more favorable smoothing effect in copula estimation over classic frequentist methods, especially with small sets of observations. We also apply our method to the copula prediction between the S\&P 500 index and the IBM stock prices during the 2007-08 financial crisis, finding that D-P tree-based methods enjoy strong robustness and flexibility over classic methods under such irregular market behaviors

Active timing margin management to improve microprocessor power efficiency

Improving power/performance efficiency is critical for today’s micro- processors. From edge devices to datacenters, lower power or higher performance always produces better systems, measured by lower cost of ownership or longer battery time. This thesis studies improving microprocessor power/performance efficiency by optimizing the pipeline timing margin. In particular, this thesis focuses on improving the efficacy of Active Timing Margin, a young technology that dynamically adjusts the margin. Active timing margin trims down the pipeline timing margin with a control loop that adjusts voltage and frequency based on real-time chip environment monitoring. The key insight of this thesis is that in order to maximize active timing margin’s efficiency enhancement benefits, synergistic management from processor architecture design and system software scheduling are needed. To that end, this thesis covers the major consumers of pipeline timing margin, including temperature, voltage, and process variation. For temperature variation, the thesis proposes a table-lookup based active timing margin mechanism, and an associated temperature management scheme to minimize power consumption. For voltage variation, the thesis characterizes the limiting factors of adaptive clocking’s power saving and proposes application scheduling to maximize total system power reduction. For process variation, the thesis proposes core-level adaptive clocking reconfiguration to automatically expose inter-core variation and discusses workload scheduling and throttling management to control critical application performance. The author believes the optimization presented in this thesis can potentially benefit a variety of processor architectures as the conclusions are based on the solid measurement on state-of-the-art processors, and the research objective, active timing margin, already has wide applicability in the latest microprocessors by the time this thesis is written.Electrical and Computer Engineerin

Estimation of the propensity of remnant underground coal pillars to spontaneously combust during opencast mining at a colliery in the Witbank coalfield

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Engineering, 2016Spontaneous combustion of coal may occur when coal is mined, stored or transported and is influenced by a combination of intrinsic and /or extrinsic factors. While it is unusual for intact seams to burn in the highwall, the most common occurrence is when surface mines extract seams previously partially mined by underground bord and pillar operations. The aim of the study is to provide a predictive model (matrix) of the spontaneous combustion potential of remnant pillars at Colliery X. A number of different thermal, chemical and petrographic tests (coal factors) will be undertaken to determine their individual and collective impacts on the sponcom predictive model. The primary geology at the mine is conformable with that of the Witbank Coalfield. Battacharyya (1982) described 3 main factors in the spontaneous combustion of coal, mining factor, coal factor and geological factor which have an aggregate effect. Some of the main historical and present theories of sponcom are the pyrite theory, the bacterial theory, the oxidation theory and the humidity theory. It is important to note that no single factor is responsible for spontaneous combustion. The oxidation of coal occurs constantly. The temperature of the coal is a function of the rate of heat generation versus the rate of heat loss. Fires can start at outcrops and move through interconnected workings with heat transfer by conduction (into the overburden) or convection (between panels).The overburden can also insulate the burning coal seam. Geological factors such as depth of overburden, the degree of fracturing, and the nature of the overlying strata vary between coalfields. A coal seam fire or mine fire is the underground smouldering of a coal deposit, often in a coal mine. Such fires have economic, social and ecological impacts In order to extinguish a fire, one of three elements, fuel, oxygen, or energy, must be removed. The components of the fire triangle can be further subdivided into conventional mine control techniques and more or less unconventional or unproven mine fire control techniques. The thermal techniques discussed include the crossing point temperature, thermogravimetric analyses and oxygen absorption. Macerals, the microscopically identifiable organic constituents of coal, are one of the three basic parameters that define coal. The other two parameters are the coal rank and the mineral matter Vitrinite is the principal maceral group of the No.5 seam and inertinite dominates the No.2 and No.4 seams. The results obtained from the 22 drill-core samples and 2 ROM samples were matched to the existing borehole dataset (2296 boreholes) based on similarity of heat value (figure 3.11). A total of 24 test results (thermal, chemical and petrographic) from borehole A and borehole B were thus assigned to the borehole database which has approximately 1500 samples for each seam. By linking the laboratory datasets (borehole A and B) and the existing borehole database used for resource modelling, the sponcom variables could be modelled in a similar way to the coal resources. The overall risk matrix was calculated on a full seam basis by combining 15 variable scores, each variable having a score of 0, 1 or 2 (low-mod-high probability). The overall results from this research produced clear and unambiguous contour plans of different factors effecting sponcom of coal using single variable and combined variable datasets. In conclusion, it appears that the acceptability of a method for determining spontaneous heating characteristics of coal mainly depends upon how closely it predicts the spontaneous heating behaviour in the field conditionsCK201

Distance and Trade: Disentangling unfamiliarity effects and transport cost effects

This paper provides evidence supporting Grossman’s (1996) claim that not only transport costs but also unfamiliarity can explain the negative correlation between geographic distances and bilateral trade volumes. A gravity model that controls for as many natural causes of trade as possible reveals that countries high in uncertainty-aversion (based on Hofstede’s survey) export disproportionately less to distant countries (with which they are presumably less familiar). More important, this result is mainly driven by differentiated products, not by products with international organized exchanges or with reference prices. For transport costs alone to explain such a trade pattern, one would have to assume that distance-related ad valorem transport costs are higher when a trade route originates from a high uncertainty-aversion country, which is unlikely. This trade pattern is easy to explain, however, if one accepts that geographic distance is a proxy for unfamiliarity and that exporters in high uncertainty-aversion countries are more sensitive to informational ambiguity. A further result is that high uncertainty- aversion countries trade less and thus grow more slowly in the long run, which suggests that cultural factors are as important as geographic ones in determining trade openness.