Robust functional regression based on principal components

Functional data analysis is a fast evolving branch of modern statistics and the functional linear model has become popular in recent years. However, most estimation methods for this model rely on generalized least squares procedures and therefore are sensitive to atypical observations. To remedy this, we propose a two-step estimation procedure that combines robust functional principal components and robust linear regression. Moreover, we propose a transformation that reduces the curvature of the estimators and can be advantageous in many settings. For these estimators we prove Fisher-consistency at elliptical distributions and consistency under mild regularity conditions. The influence function of the estimators is investigated as well. Simulation experiments show that the proposed estimators have reasonable efficiency, protect against outlying observations, produce smooth estimates and perform well in comparison to existing approaches.Comment: 33 pages, including the appendix and reference

Intraday forecasts of a volatility index: Functional time series methods with dynamic updating

As a forward-looking measure of future equity market volatility, the VIX index has gained immense popularity in recent years to become a key measure of risk for market analysts and academics. We consider discrete reported intraday VIX tick values as realisations of a collection of curves observed sequentially on equally spaced and dense grids over time and utilise functional data analysis techniques to produce one-day-ahead forecasts of these curves. The proposed method facilitates the investigation of dynamic changes in the index over very short time intervals as showcased using the 15-second high-frequency VIX index values. With the help of dynamic updating techniques, our point and interval forecasts are shown to enjoy improved accuracy over conventional time series models.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figures, To appear at the Annals of Operations Researc

Robust regularized singular value decomposition with application to mortality data

We develop a robust regularized singular value decomposition (RobRSVD) method for analyzing two-way functional data. The research is motivated by the application of modeling human mortality as a smooth two-way function of age group and year. The RobRSVD is formulated as a penalized loss minimization problem where a robust loss function is used to measure the reconstruction error of a low-rank matrix approximation of the data, and an appropriately defined two-way roughness penalty function is used to ensure smoothness along each of the two functional domains. By viewing the minimization problem as two conditional regularized robust regressions, we develop a fast iterative reweighted least squares algorithm to implement the method. Our implementation naturally incorporates missing values. Furthermore, our formulation allows rigorous derivation of leave-one-row/column-out cross-validation and generalized cross-validation criteria, which enable computationally efficient data-driven penalty parameter selection. The advantages of the new robust method over nonrobust ones are shown via extensive simulation studies and the mortality rate application.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AOAS649 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org