244 research outputs found
Regression Modeling for Recurrent Events Possibly with an Informative Terminal Event Using R Package reReg
Recurrent event analyses have found a wide range of applications in biomedicine, public health, and engineering, among others, where study subjects may experience a sequence of event of interest during follow-up. The R package reReg offers a comprehensive collection of practical and easy-to-use tools for regression analysis of recurrent events, possibly with the presence of an informative terminal event. The regression framework is a general scalechange model which encompasses the popular Cox-type model, the accelerated rate model, and the accelerated mean model as special cases. Informative censoring is accommodated through a subject-specific frailty without any need for parametric specification. Different regression models are allowed for the recurrent event process and the terminal event. Also included are visualization and simulation tools
Improved Dynamic Predictions from Joint Models of Longitudinal and Survival Data with Time-Varying Effects using P-splines
In the field of cardio-thoracic surgery, valve function is monitored over
time after surgery. The motivation for our research comes from a study which
includes patients who received a human tissue valve in the aortic position.
These patients are followed prospectively over time by standardized
echocardiographic assessment of valve function. Loss of follow-up could be
caused by valve intervention or the death of the patient. One of the main
characteristics of the human valve is that its durability is limited.
Therefore, it is of interest to obtain a prognostic model in order for the
physicians to scan trends in valve function over time and plan their next
intervention, accounting for the characteristics of the data.
Several authors have focused on deriving predictions under the standard joint
modeling of longitudinal and survival data framework that assumes a constant
effect for the coefficient that links the longitudinal and survival outcomes.
However, in our case this may be a restrictive assumption. Since the valve
degenerates, the association between the biomarker with survival may change
over time.
To improve dynamic predictions we propose a Bayesian joint model that allows
a time-varying coefficient to link the longitudinal and the survival processes,
using P-splines. We evaluate the performance of the model in terms of
discrimination and calibration, while accounting for censoring
survHE: Survival Analysis for Health Economic Evaluation and Cost-Effectiveness Modeling
Survival analysis features heavily as an important part of health economic evaluation, an increasingly important component of medical research. In this setting, it is important to estimate the mean time to the survival endpoint using limited information (typically from randomized trials) and thus it is useful to consider parametric survival models. In this paper, we review the features of the R package survHE, specifically designed to wrap several tools to perform survival analysis for economic evaluation. In particular, survHE embeds both a standard, frequentist analysis (through the R package flexsurv) and a Bayesian approach, based on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (via the R package rstan) or integrated nested Laplace approximation (with the R package INLA). Using this composite approach, we obtain maximum flexibility and are able to pre-compile a wide range of parametric models, with a view of simplifying the modelers' work and allowing them to move away from non-optimal work flows, including spreadsheets (e.g., Microsoft Excel)
SmoothHazard:An R package for fitting regression models to interval-censored observations of illness-death models
The irreversible illness-death model describes the pathway from an initial state to an absorbing state either directly or through an intermediate state. This model is frequently used in medical applications where the intermediate state represents illness and the absorbing state represents death. In many studies, disease onset times are not known exactly. This happens for example if the disease status of a patient can only be assessed at follow-up visits. In this situation the disease onset times are interval-censored. This article presents the SmoothHazard package for R. It implements algorithms for simultaneously fitting regression models to the three transition intensities of an illness-death model where the transition times to the intermediate state may be interval-censored and all the event times can be right-censored. The package parses the individual data structure of the subjects in a data set to find the individual contributions to the likelihood. The three baseline transition intensity functions are modelled by Weibull distributions or alternatively by M -splines in a semi-parametric approach. For a given set of covariates, the estimated transition intensities can be combined into predictions of cumulative event probabilities and life expectancies
Methods for Population Adjustment with Limited Access to Individual Patient Data: A Review and Simulation Study
Population-adjusted indirect comparisons estimate treatment effects when
access to individual patient data is limited and there are cross-trial
differences in effect modifiers. Popular methods include matching-adjusted
indirect comparison (MAIC) and simulated treatment comparison (STC). There is
limited formal evaluation of these methods and whether they can be used to
accurately compare treatments. Thus, we undertake a comprehensive simulation
study to compare standard unadjusted indirect comparisons, MAIC and STC across
162 scenarios. This simulation study assumes that the trials are investigating
survival outcomes and measure continuous covariates, with the log hazard ratio
as the measure of effect. MAIC yields unbiased treatment effect estimates under
no failures of assumptions. The typical usage of STC produces bias because it
targets a conditional treatment effect where the target estimand should be a
marginal treatment effect. The incompatibility of estimates in the indirect
comparison leads to bias as the measure of effect is non-collapsible. Standard
indirect comparisons are systematically biased, particularly under stronger
covariate imbalance and interaction effects. Standard errors and coverage rates
are often valid in MAIC but the robust sandwich variance estimator
underestimates variability where effective sample sizes are small. Interval
estimates for the standard indirect comparison are too narrow and STC suffers
from bias-induced undercoverage. MAIC provides the most accurate estimates and,
with lower degrees of covariate overlap, its bias reduction outweighs the loss
in effective sample size and precision under no failures of assumptions. An
important future objective is the development of an alternative formulation to
STC that targets a marginal treatment effect.Comment: 73 pages (34 are supplementary appendices and references), 8 figures,
2 tables. Full article (following Round 4 of minor revisions). arXiv admin
note: text overlap with arXiv:2008.0595
A theoretical and methodological framework for machine learning in survival analysis: Enabling transparent and accessible predictive modelling on right-censored time-to-event data
Survival analysis is an important field of Statistics concerned with mak- ing time-to-event predictions with ‘censored’ data. Machine learning, specifically supervised learning, is the field of Statistics concerned with using state-of-the-art algorithms in order to make predictions on unseen data. This thesis looks at unifying these two fields as current research into the two is still disjoint, with ‘classical survival’ on one side and su- pervised learning (primarily classification and regression) on the other. This PhD aims to improve the quality of machine learning research in survival analysis by focusing on transparency, accessibility, and predic- tive performance in model building and evaluation. This is achieved by examining historic and current proposals and implementations for models and measures (both classical and machine learning) in survival analysis and making novel contributions. In particular this includes: i) a survey of survival models including a crit- ical and technical survey of almost all supervised learning model classes currently utilised in survival, as well as novel adaptations; ii) a survey of evaluation measures for survival models, including key definitions, proofs and theorems for survival scoring rules that had previously been missing from the literature; iii) introduction and formalisation of composition and reduction in survival analysis, with a view on increasing transparency of modelling strategies and improving predictive performance; iv) imple- mentation of several R software packages, in particular mlr3proba for machine learning in survival analysis; and v) the first large-scale bench- mark experiment on right-censored time-to-event data with 24 survival models and 66 datasets. Survival analysis has many important applications in medical statistics, engineering and finance, and as such requires the same level of rigour as other machine learning fields such as regression and classification; this thesis aims to make this clear by describing a framework from prediction and evaluation to implementation
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