Robustness

The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.decision-making, uncertainty, statistical models, control techniques, economic modeling, dynamic microeconomics, misspecification

PROPEL: implementation of an evidence based pelvic floor muscle training intervention for women with pelvic organ prolapse: a realist evaluation and outcomes study protocol

Abstract Background Pelvic Organ Prolapse (POP) is estimated to affect 41%–50% of women aged over 40. Findings from the multi-centre randomised controlled “Pelvic Organ Prolapse PhysiotherapY” (POPPY) trial showed that individualised pelvic floor muscle training (PFMT) was effective in reducing symptoms of prolapse, improved quality of life and showed clear potential to be cost-effective. However, provision of PFMT for prolapse continues to vary across the UK, with limited numbers of women’s health physiotherapists specialising in its delivery. Implementation of this robust evidence from the POPPY trial will require attention to different models of delivery (e.g. staff skill mix) to fit with differing care environments. Methods A Realist Evaluation (RE) of implementation and outcomes of PFMT delivery in contrasting NHS settings will be conducted using multiple case study sites. Involving substantial local stakeholder engagement will permit a detailed exploration of how local sites make decisions on how to deliver PFMT and how these lead to service change. The RE will track how implementation is working; identify what influences outcomes; and, guided by the RE-AIM framework, will collect robust outcomes data. This will require mixed methods data collection and analysis. Qualitative data will be collected at four time-points across each site to understand local contexts and decisions regarding options for intervention delivery and to monitor implementation, uptake, adherence and outcomes. Patient outcome data will be collected at baseline, six months and one year follow-up for 120 women. Primary outcome will be the Pelvic Organ Prolapse Symptom Score (POP-SS). An economic evaluation will assess the costs and benefits associated with different delivery models taking account of further health care resource use by the women. Cost data will be combined with the primary outcome in a cost effectiveness analysis, and the EQ-5D-5L data in a cost utility analysis for each of the different models of delivery. Discussion Study of the implementation of varying models of service delivery of PFMT across contrasting sites combined with outcomes data and a cost effectiveness analysis will provide insight into the implementation and value of different models of PFMT service delivery and the cost benefits to the NHS in the longer term

Letter to a Younger Generation

This paper has the purpose of transmitting to the younger generation of economists some insights and judgments that seem to have been bypassed or overlooked as the literature of the economics profession has evolved. In the main, the paper tries to explain what is "The right place" within economics to employ particular sets of assumptions or methods. Where is the use of the representative consumer appropriate, and where not? What is the "natural" range of application for overlapping generation models? When is it appropriate to treat the capital flow to (or from) a country as infinitely elastic with respect to the interest rate? These and other questions will be pursued, with the objective of alerting the younger generations to important decisions they have to make as they strive to keep economic science robust, relevant and helpful in improving the economic life of real-world populations.

AN ECONOMIC CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE UNITED STATES

The United States is a large country that has many different areas. The cost of living combined with natural advantages for specific industries pose a difficult problem for individuals looking to find common ground across the United States at scale. Every area requires careful thought and planning by city planners relative to economic development. Past research has determined that economic clusters can be created in order to help decision makers in public office understand various economies; however, no open-source tool has been developed to aid decision makers think through public policy resolutions. Utilizing clustering models, we investigate what economic clusters form, the drivers of these clusters, and lay the ground work for more robust models. The goal of this thesis is to provide public policy decision makers with insights on other metropolitan statistical areas (MSA), encouraging further collaboration and resource sharing to aid in economic growth. Efforts were taken to keep the model simple yet robust, with the understanding that follow-on research can get much more specialized on specific issues. This thesis utilizes clustering techniques in order to determine what MSAs have similar economic outlooks. By identifying these clusters, we provide policymakers with insights on which MSA are comparable to other MSAs, shortening the research process for public policy decisions and promoting collaboration across the country.Captain, United States Marine CorpsApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Essays on Political Economy

“Essays on Political Economy” explores the connections between politics and economics in several different contexts. By politics, or more precisely the political game, I mean the social procedures through which collective decisions are made. By economics I mean the economic game once collective decisions have already been selected. Of particular interest are the preferences about collective decisions among agents induced by the economic game. Some of the political institutions for selecting public policies can be easily changed and, hence, should be treated themselves as endogenous collective decisions. Others are very robust. I will refer to the later group as the political structure of society. Similarly, parts of the rules of the economic game do not significantly depend on collective decisions. I will denote them, the economic structure of society. The underlying premise of the thesis is simple. Collective decisions are endogenous outcomes that depend on the form and intensity of social conflict. In turn, the economic and political structure of society shapes the form and intensity of social conflict. The main objective is to improve the understanding of the deep economic and political determinants of collective decisions. In political economy more than in any other field, it is arbitrary to draw a line between endogenous and exogenous variables. In an effort to minimize this issue, the essays of this thesis rely on formal game theoretic models. Thus, the distinction between endogenous and exogenous variables in each model is always clear and simple to detect. The equilibrium of the model connects the endogenous collective decisions with the exogenous economic and political structure. Sometimes I also go beyond the positive equilibrium-comparative statics analysis and I perform a normative cost-benefit analysis with respect to the exogenous political structure. For such cases, the political structure is interpreted as a long run norm such as a constitution, and the implicit assumption is that the norm is selected to maximize some welfare criteria

SEAM: A Small-Scale Euro Area Model With Forward-Looking Elements

This paper presents a small-scale estimated macro model for the euro area (SEAM) designed primarily to generate forecasts and to evaluate the dynamic response of the economy to unanticipated and anticipated shocks. One crucial feature of SEAM is the presence of forward-looking elements, which makes the model forecasts more robust to the 'Lucas critique', since it allows economic decisions to be moulded by the future impact of 'surprise' policy actions. In what concerns the reliability of the model-simulations, the inclusion of forward-looking behaviour enriches the dynamics of the response of the model's endogenous variables to exogenous shocks. Although the SEAM does not have the richness of full-scale macroeconometric models, as apparent interalia, by the absence of a steady-state analogue and also of some relationships important for a better characterisation of the euro area economy, the model has been shown to deliver reasonable forecasts and responses to shocks that are consistent with conventional wisdom.

Developing a Strategic Stochastic Optimization Model, Robust Solutions, and a Decision Support System for Energy-efficient Buildings

This research is being carried out in the context of the EnRiMa project (Energy Efficiency and Risk Management in Public Buildings), funded by the European Commission (EC) within the Seventh Framework Program. Energy Systems Optimization is increasing its importance due to regulations and de-regulations of the energy sector and the setting of targets such as the European Union's 20/20/20. This raises new types of dynamic stochastic energy models incorporating both strategic and operational decisions (short-term decisions have to be made from long-term perspectives) involving standard technological as well as market-oriented financial options. Thus, buildings managers are challenged by decision making processes to achieve robust optimal energy supply portfolio and they are encouraged to adopt an active role in energy markets. Moreover, those decisions must be made under inherently uncertain conditions. The goal of this paper is to develop an integrated framework for the representation and solution of such energy systems optimization problems, to be implemented in Decision Support Systems (DSSs) for robust decision making at the building level to face rising systemic economic and environmental global challenges. As the combination of operational and strategic decisions in the same model induces risk aversion in strategic decisions, the developed approach allows easy to include quantile-based measures such as Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). Such complex energy systems need to be accurately described in a condensed way representing a large amount of variables, parameters and constraints reflecting endogenous and exogenous interdependencies, sustainability requirements and threats. Therefore, a comprehensive Symbolic Model Specification (SMS) development is a part of the research work. Using the R statistical software and programming language, an integrated framework is proposed to cover the needs of the whole decision making process, ranging from data analysis and estimation to effective representation of models and decisions to be used by both humans and machines. Such a framework provides an environment for enforcing the necessary stakeholders dialog. Furthermore, the framework allows communicating with different types of optimization software

Models for ranking European Institutions of higher learning with an application to data from Greece

Monitoring the success of colleges and universities can be useful to many interested parties and for many purposes. For example, it can assist administrations to identify the strengths and weaknesses of their institutions and take corrective actions. It can enlighten the decisions of funding authorities, as transparency and accountability in public life are becoming subjects of wide social concern. And of course it can provide prospective university students and their parents with the data they need to make informed educational decisions. In this paper we propose a flexible analytical framework for ranking institutions of higher learning and apply it to date from 19 Department of Economics, Business Administration, and European International and Economic Studies that operated in Greece in 1998. Our results suggest that the proposed model is robust with respect to several criteria. In particular, the rankings in each category remain unchanged for a wide range of the weights employed to sum the contributions of research, teaching and other activities of the faculties. The top departments retain their relative positions in their categories irrespective of whether the rating criterion is research or teaching, thus ascertaining the finding that good teaching goes hand in hand with good research. And last, but not least, it is found that market ratings of the various departments, as represented by the evaluations of graduates their employers, and other interested parties, are consistent with the rankings based on academic criteria.University rankings;models of rankings;rankings of Greek economics and business departments