Large Dimensional Analysis and Optimization of Robust Shrinkage Covariance Matrix Estimators

This article studies two regularized robust estimators of scatter matrices proposed (and proved to be well defined) in parallel in (Chen et al., 2011) and (Pascal et al., 2013), based on Tyler's robust M-estimator (Tyler, 1987) and on Ledoit and Wolf's shrinkage covariance matrix estimator (Ledoit and Wolf, 2004). These hybrid estimators have the advantage of conveying (i) robustness to outliers or impulsive samples and (ii) small sample size adequacy to the classical sample covariance matrix estimator. We consider here the case of i.i.d. elliptical zero mean samples in the regime where both sample and population sizes are large. We demonstrate that, under this setting, the estimators under study asymptotically behave similar to well-understood random matrix models. This characterization allows us to derive optimal shrinkage strategies to estimate the population scatter matrix, improving significantly upon the empirical shrinkage method proposed in (Chen et al., 2011).Comment: Journal of Multivariate Analysi

Performance analysis and optimal selection of large mean-variance portfolios under estimation risk

We study the consistency of sample mean-variance portfolios of arbitrarily high dimension that are based on Bayesian or shrinkage estimation of the input parameters as well as weighted sampling. In an asymptotic setting where the number of assets remains comparable in magnitude to the sample size, we provide a characterization of the estimation risk by providing deterministic equivalents of the portfolio out-of-sample performance in terms of the underlying investment scenario. The previous estimates represent a means of quantifying the amount of risk underestimation and return overestimation of improved portfolio constructions beyond standard ones. Well-known for the latter, if not corrected, these deviations lead to inaccurate and overly optimistic Sharpe-based investment decisions. Our results are based on recent contributions in the field of random matrix theory. Along with the asymptotic analysis, the analytical framework allows us to find bias corrections improving on the achieved out-of-sample performance of typical portfolio constructions. Some numerical simulations validate our theoretical findings

A Robust Statistics Approach to Minimum Variance Portfolio Optimization

We study the design of portfolios under a minimum risk criterion. The performance of the optimized portfolio relies on the accuracy of the estimated covariance matrix of the portfolio asset returns. For large portfolios, the number of available market returns is often of similar order to the number of assets, so that the sample covariance matrix performs poorly as a covariance estimator. Additionally, financial market data often contain outliers which, if not correctly handled, may further corrupt the covariance estimation. We address these shortcomings by studying the performance of a hybrid covariance matrix estimator based on Tyler's robust M-estimator and on Ledoit-Wolf's shrinkage estimator while assuming samples with heavy-tailed distribution. Employing recent results from random matrix theory, we develop a consistent estimator of (a scaled version of) the realized portfolio risk, which is minimized by optimizing online the shrinkage intensity. Our portfolio optimization method is shown via simulations to outperform existing methods both for synthetic and real market data

Shrinkage Estimation of the Power Spectrum Covariance Matrix

We seek to improve estimates of the power spectrum covariance matrix from a limited number of simulations by employing a novel statistical technique known as shrinkage estimation. The shrinkage technique optimally combines an empirical estimate of the covariance with a model (the target) to minimize the total mean squared error compared to the true underlying covariance. We test this technique on N-body simulations and evaluate its performance by estimating cosmological parameters. Using a simple diagonal target, we show that the shrinkage estimator significantly outperforms both the empirical covariance and the target individually when using a small number of simulations. We find that reducing noise in the covariance estimate is essential for properly estimating the values of cosmological parameters as well as their confidence intervals. We extend our method to the jackknife covariance estimator and again find significant improvement, though simulations give better results. Even for thousands of simulations we still find evidence that our method improves estimation of the covariance matrix. Because our method is simple, requires negligible additional numerical effort, and produces superior results, we always advocate shrinkage estimation for the covariance of the power spectrum and other large-scale structure measurements when purely theoretical modeling of the covariance is insufficient.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures (1 new), MNRAS, accepted. Changes to match accepted version, including an additional explanatory section with 1 figur

Statistical inference for the EU portfolio in high dimensions

In this paper, using the shrinkage-based approach for portfolio weights and modern results from random matrix theory we construct an effective procedure for testing the efficiency of the expected utility (EU) portfolio and discuss the asymptotic behavior of the proposed test statistic under the high-dimensional asymptotic regime, namely when the number of assets $p$ increases at the same rate as the sample size $n$ such that their ratio $p/n$ approaches a positive constant $c\in(0,1)$ as $n\to\infty$. We provide an extensive simulation study where the power function and receiver operating characteristic curves of the test are analyzed. In the empirical study, the methodology is applied to the returns of S\&P 500 constituents.Comment: 27 pages, 5 figures, 2 table

Cleaning large correlation matrices: tools from random matrix theory

This review covers recent results concerning the estimation of large covariance matrices using tools from Random Matrix Theory (RMT). We introduce several RMT methods and analytical techniques, such as the Replica formalism and Free Probability, with an emphasis on the Marchenko-Pastur equation that provides information on the resolvent of multiplicatively corrupted noisy matrices. Special care is devoted to the statistics of the eigenvectors of the empirical correlation matrix, which turn out to be crucial for many applications. We show in particular how these results can be used to build consistent "Rotationally Invariant" estimators (RIE) for large correlation matrices when there is no prior on the structure of the underlying process. The last part of this review is dedicated to some real-world applications within financial markets as a case in point. We establish empirically the efficacy of the RIE framework, which is found to be superior in this case to all previously proposed methods. The case of additively (rather than multiplicatively) corrupted noisy matrices is also dealt with in a special Appendix. Several open problems and interesting technical developments are discussed throughout the paper.Comment: 165 pages, article submitted to Physics Report