Statistical interaction modeling of bovine herd behaviors

While there has been interest in modeling the group behavior of herds or flocks, much of this work has focused on simulating their collective spatial motion patterns which have not accounted for individuality in the herd and instead assume a homogenized role for all members or sub-groups of the herd. Animal behavior experts have noted that domestic animals exhibit behaviors that are indicative of social hierarchy: leader/follower type behaviors are present as well as dominance and subordination, aggression and rank order, and specific social affiliations may also exist. Both wild and domestic cattle are social species, and group behaviors are likely to be influenced by the expression of specific social interactions. In this paper, Global Positioning System coordinate fixes gathered from a herd of beef cows tracked in open fields over several days at a time are utilized to learn a model that focuses on the interactions within the herd as well as its overall movement. Using these data in this way explores the validity of existing group behavior models against actual herding behaviors. Domain knowledge, location geography and human observations, are utilized to explain the causes of these deviations from this idealized behavior

Real-time action recognition using a multilayer descriptor with variable size

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Video analysis technology has become less expensive and more powerful in terms of storage resources and resolution capacity, promoting progress in a wide range of applications. Video-based human action detection has been used for several tasks in surveillance environments, such as forensic investigation, patient monitoring, medical training, accident prevention, and traffic monitoring, among others. We present a method for action identification based on adaptive training of a multilayer descriptor applied to a single classifier. Cumulative motion shapes (CMSs) are extracted according to the number of frames present in the video. Each CMS is employed as a self-sufficient layer in the training stage but belongs to the same descriptor. A robust classification is achieved through individual responses of classifiers for each layer, and the dominant result is used as a final outcome. Experiments are conducted on five public datasets (Weizmann, KTH, MuHAVi, IXMAS, and URADL) to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method in terms of accuracy in real time. (C) 2016 SPIE and IS&TVideo analysis technology has become less expensive and more powerful in terms of storage resources and resolution capacity, promoting progress in a wide range of applications. Video-based human action detection has been used for several tasks in surveill2501FAPESP - FUNDAÇÃO DE AMPARO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULOCNPQ - CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICOFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)SEM INFORMAÇÃOSEM INFORMAÇÃ

Turning-point indicators from business surveys: real-time detection for the euro area and its major member countries

We present tools for real-time detection of turning points in the industrial production growth-cycle of the euro area and its four largest economies. In particular, we apply a multivariate hidden Markov model to national survey results – i.e. to the earliest information about current economic developments - in order to estimate the probability of expansionary and recessionary phases. The balances of opinions used as inputs of the model are selected by ranking them according to their degree of commonality with respect to the cyclical fluctuations of the industrial sector, as estimated with the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model. The indicators appear reliable and stable.business cycle, hidden Markov model, business surveys

Dynamic Population Models with Temporal Preferential Sampling to Infer Phenology

To study population dynamics, ecologists and wildlife biologists use relative abundance data, which are often subject to temporal preferential sampling. Temporal preferential sampling occurs when sampling effort varies across time. To account for preferential sampling, we specify a Bayesian hierarchical abundance model that considers the dependence between observation times and the ecological process of interest. The proposed model improves abundance estimates during periods of infrequent observation and accounts for temporal preferential sampling in discrete time. Additionally, our model facilitates posterior inference for population growth rates and mechanistic phenometrics. We apply our model to analyze both simulated data and mosquito count data collected by the National Ecological Observatory Network. In the second case study, we characterize the population growth rate and abundance of several mosquito species in the Aedes genus.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figures, 1 tabl

Text-independent speaker recognition

This research presents new text-independent speaker recognition system with multivariate tools such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Independent Component Analysis (ICA) embedded into the recognition system after the feature extraction step. The proposed approach evaluates the performance of such a recognition system when trained and used in clean and noisy environments. Additive white Gaussian noise and convolutive noise are added. Experiments were carried out to investigate the robust ability of PCA and ICA using the designed approach. The application of ICA improved the performance of the speaker recognition model when compared to PCA. Experimental results show that use of ICA enabled extraction of higher order statistics thereby capturing speaker dependent statistical cues in a text-independent recognition system. The results show that ICA has a better de-correlation and dimension reduction property than PCA. To simulate a multi environment system, we trained our model such that every time a new speech signal was read, it was contaminated with different types of noises and stored in the database. Results also show that ICA outperforms PCA under adverse environments. This is verified by computing recognition accuracy rates obtained when the designed system was tested for different train and test SNR conditions with additive white Gaussian noise and test delay conditions with echo effect

Grounding the Lexical Semantics of Verbs in Visual Perception using Force Dynamics and Event Logic

This paper presents an implemented system for recognizing the occurrence of events described by simple spatial-motion verbs in short image sequences. The semantics of these verbs is specified with event-logic expressions that describe changes in the state of force-dynamic relations between the participants of the event. An efficient finite representation is introduced for the infinite sets of intervals that occur when describing liquid and semi-liquid events. Additionally, an efficient procedure using this representation is presented for inferring occurrences of compound events, described with event-logic expressions, from occurrences of primitive events. Using force dynamics and event logic to specify the lexical semantics of events allows the system to be more robust than prior systems based on motion profile

Operational Decision Making under Uncertainty: Inferential, Sequential, and Adversarial Approaches

Modern security threats are characterized by a stochastic, dynamic, partially observable, and ambiguous operational environment. This dissertation addresses such complex security threats using operations research techniques for decision making under uncertainty in operations planning, analysis, and assessment. First, this research develops a new method for robust queue inference with partially observable, stochastic arrival and departure times, motivated by cybersecurity and terrorism applications. In the dynamic setting, this work develops a new variant of Markov decision processes and an algorithm for robust information collection in dynamic, partially observable and ambiguous environments, with an application to a cybersecurity detection problem. In the adversarial setting, this work presents a new application of counterfactual regret minimization and robust optimization to a multi-domain cyber and air defense problem in a partially observable environment

On the role of pre and post-processing in environmental data mining

The quality of discovered knowledge is highly depending on data quality. Unfortunately real data use to contain noise, uncertainty, errors, redundancies or even irrelevant information. The more complex is the reality to be analyzed, the higher the risk of getting low quality data. Knowledge Discovery from Databases (KDD) offers a global framework to prepare data in the right form to perform correct analyses. On the other hand, the quality of decisions taken upon KDD results, depend not only on the quality of the results themselves, but on the capacity of the system to communicate those results in an understandable form. Environmental systems are particularly complex and environmental users particularly require clarity in their results. In this paper some details about how this can be achieved are provided. The role of the pre and post processing in the whole process of Knowledge Discovery in environmental systems is discussed