Climate dynamics and fluid mechanics: Natural variability and related uncertainties

The purpose of this review-and-research paper is twofold: (i) to review the role played in climate dynamics by fluid-dynamical models; and (ii) to contribute to the understanding and reduction of the uncertainties in future climate-change projections. To illustrate the first point, we focus on the large-scale, wind-driven flow of the mid-latitude oceans which contribute in a crucial way to Earth's climate, and to changes therein. We study the low-frequency variability (LFV) of the wind-driven, double-gyre circulation in mid-latitude ocean basins, via the bifurcation sequence that leads from steady states through periodic solutions and on to the chaotic, irregular flows documented in the observations. This sequence involves local, pitchfork and Hopf bifurcations, as well as global, homoclinic ones. The natural climate variability induced by the LFV of the ocean circulation is but one of the causes of uncertainties in climate projections. Another major cause of such uncertainties could reside in the structural instability in the topological sense, of the equations governing climate dynamics, including but not restricted to those of atmospheric and ocean dynamics. We propose a novel approach to understand, and possibly reduce, these uncertainties, based on the concepts and methods of random dynamical systems theory. As a very first step, we study the effect of noise on the topological classes of the Arnol'd family of circle maps, a paradigmatic model of frequency locking as occurring in the nonlinear interactions between the El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and the seasonal cycle. It is shown that the maps' fine-grained resonant landscape is smoothed by the noise, thus permitting their coarse-grained classification. This result is consistent with stabilizing effects of stochastic parametrization obtained in modeling of ENSO phenomenon via some general circulation models.Comment: Invited survey paper for Special Issue on The Euler Equations: 250 Years On, in Physica D: Nonlinear phenomen

Robust Stability Assessment in the Presence of Load Dynamics Uncertainty

Dynamic response of loads has a significant effect on system stability and directly determines the stability margin of the operating point. Inherent uncertainty and natural variability of load models make the stability assessment especially difficult and may compromise the security of the system. We propose a novel mathematical “robust stability” criterion for the assessment of small-signal stability of operating points. Whenever the criterion is satisfied for a given operating point, it provides mathematical guarantees that the operating point will be stable with respect to small disturbances for any dynamic response of the loads. The criterion can be naturally used for identification of operating regions secure from the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation. Several possible applications of the criterion are discussed, most importantly the concept of robust stability assessment (RSA), that could be integrated in dynamic security assessment packages and used in contingency screening and other planning and operational studies

Nonequilibrium scaling explorations on a 2D Z(5)-symmetric model

We have investigated the dynamic critical behavior of the two-dimensional Z(5)-symmetric spin model by using short-time Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. We have obtained estimates of some critical points in its rich phase diagram and included, among the usual critical lines the study of first-order (weak) transition by looking into the order-disorder phase transition. Besides, we also investigated the soft-disorder phase transition by considering empiric methods. A study of the behavior of $\beta /\nu z$ along the self-dual critical line has been performed and special attention has been devoted to the critical bifurcation point, or FZ (Fateev-Zamolodchikov) point. Firstly, by using a refinement method and taking into account simulations out-of-equilibrium, we were able to localize parameters of this point. In a second part of our study, we turned our attention to the behavior of the model at the early stage of its time evolution in order to find the dynamic critical exponent z as well as the static critical exponents $\beta$ and $$ of the FZ-point on square lattices. The values of the static critical exponents and parameters are in good agreement with the exact results, and the dynamic critical exponent $z\approx 2.28$ very close of the 4-state Potts model ($z\approx 2.29$).Comment: 11 pages, 7 figure