Resilience of logistic service providers facing a port strike: a case study

The purpose of this thesis is to study the impact of a port strike on companies that perform as logistic service providers in a supply chain (SC), here denominated 3PL (third-party logistic providers). These companies are highly dependent on ports to perform their activity, since they provide international services. Consequently, a disruption in a port can seriously impair their business. A stevedores’ strike is one of the possible disruptions that can affect ports. This study aims to analyze the negative effects caused by this disruption, and what strategies 3PLs may implement in order to keep their performance levels stable and have a quick recovery time. Within this objective, the first step will be to establish a theoretical context about the maritime port’s sector and 3PLs in a SC context, to then expand the concept of a resilient SC, and finally to develop a theoretical framework in order to better contextualize the case study. Subsequently, the impact of a port strike will be quantified by using a case study comprising three companies, covering the areas of land and sea distribution and port operations. Information from primary sources was assembled in two phases: first via e-mail and, in a second phase, through a personal interview. The information from secondary sources was obtained through television news, internet and conferences, enabling its cross-analysis. Finally, by analyzing the collected data, it will be possible to draw conclusions about the measures carried out by each company to minimize the negative effects of the strike, thus contributing to a more resilient SC. As a conclusion, a stevedores’ strike will create a snow-ball of negative effects in the SC, degrading all relevant KPIs (key performance indicators) of the 3PLs under study. No mitigation and contingency strategies available proved really effective to reduce the negative effects of a port strike disruption

Exploiting Big Data in Logistics Risk Assessment via Bayesian Nonparametrics

<p>In cargo logistics, a key performance measure is transport risk, defined as the deviation of the actual arrival time from the planned arrival time. Neither earliness nor tardiness is desirable for the customer and freight forwarder. In this paper, we investigate ways to assess and forecast transport risks using a half-year of air cargo data, provided by a leading forwarder on 1336 routes served by 20 airlines. Interestingly, our preliminary data analysis shows a strong multimodal feature in the transport risks, driven by unobserved events, such as cargo missing flights. To accommodate this feature, we introduce a Bayesian nonparametric model -- the probit stick-breaking process (PSBP) mixture model -- for flexible estimation of the conditional (i.e., state-dependent) density function of transport risk. We demonstrate that using simpler methods, such as OLS linear regression, can lead to misleading inferences. Our model provides a tool for the forwarder to offer customized price and service quotes. It can also generate baseline airline performance to enable fair supplier evaluation. Furthermore, the method allows us to separate recurrent risks from disruption risks. This is important, because hedging strategies for these two kinds of risks are often drastically different.</p>Thesi

Opportunities for short-sea shipping in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region: evidence based on discrete choice modelling

The thesis investigates the development of short-sea shipping (SSS) in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region by studying the determinants of SSS, the stated choice preference of shippers and freight forwarders and the stated intentions of maritime carriers for SSS. It is purported the introduction of SSS in SADC could reduce socio-environmental problems currently faced such as road damage, road congestion, pollution and transport related accidents. Discrete choice modeling (DCM) is employed as the main methodology to study shipper and carrier behavior. Discrete choice modeling permits the construction of general utility functions incorporating various decision maker characteristics and choice attributes to elicit preference of respondents. The general postulate in DCM is that utility is derived from the properties of things rather than the actual thing per se. A particular benefit of DCM in this study is the elicitation of preference for services and interventions that have not been introduced by SSS. The first step in the study is a theoretical investigation of the potential of SSS in the SADC region. It highlights the policy initiatives, the barriers and enablers related to the development of SSS. The proposed SSS system would have three main roles: to offer an alternative mode of freight transport service between port cities, to serve as the main leg in an intermodal transport network, and to serve feeder services between hub-and-spoke ports. The findings reveal that, SSS has the theoretical potential to work in the SADC region, given the large geographic region, projected freight volumes and customs and trade policies the SADC region is pursuing. The second step in the study involves an a-priori study conducted to develop a general understanding of freight transport in SADC. For this purpose, a uniquely developed online survey was conducted across the SADC region to ascertain in particular: who the decision maker is in terms of freight mode choice; and what the significant attributes that influence freight mode choice are. The results reveal that both the shipper and the freight forwarder are involved in mode choice decisions, however the shipper being the dominant decision maker. Furthermore, the results of the exploded logit model reveal that the top five modal attributes that shippers consider most important are: reliability, transport cost, risk of damage, frequency of service and transit time. These results were subsequently employed to inform the shipper and carrier behavior studies. The third step entails the assessment of shipper behavior, where trip specific mode choice decisions are studied along five intra-urban origin-destination (O-D) paired routes (which would form the study corridors). Three of these corridors considered unimodal SSS, and the two considered intermodal SSS. Unimodal SSS was studied along the following corridors: Cape Town (South Africa)~ Walvis Bay (Namibia), Walvis Bay (Namibia) ~ Luanda (Angola) and Durban (South Africa) ~Beira (Mozambique); and intermodal SSS was studied along the following corridors: Durban (South Africa) ~ Harare (Zimbabwe) and Cape Town (South Africa) ~ Windhoek (Namibia). To develop the choice scenarios, d-efficient stated choice experiments were uniquely developed for each of the corridors with the following key modal attributes systematically varied and analyzed across respondents: service frequency, reliability in terms of arriving on time, expected delay, transport cost and transport time. Subsequently, the following choice models were developed: Binary Logit, Mixed Logit and Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Structure models for the unimodal corridors; and Multinomial Logit, Nested Logit and Cross Nested Logit models for the intermodal corridors. The results highlight that in addition to the modal attributes, mode choice decisions are driven by shipper characteristics and situational characteristics. Moreover, the unimodal SSS study reveals that underlying latent perceptions also influence freight mode choice decisions; while the intermodal SSS study reveal strong correlations in the intermodal SSS alternatives, which requires improved intermodal capability if SSS is to become competitive. The fourth step in the study entail the assessment of maritime carriers preference for SSS given varying levels of maritime conditions that include: dedicated freight volumes, income from freight, port dues discount, terminal handling fees discount and ship registration requirements. The results of an ordered logit model reveal that ship registration provisions and terminal handling charges are the most important to the development of SSS from a carrier side. Moreover, ship registration and maritime cabotage provisions require visitation to boost the participation of carriers in SSS. The last step of the study revisits the modeling results and considers their implications through the estimation of willingness-to-pay and attribute elasticities. The results were then employed to suggest policy actions and interventions to develop SSS

An integrated framework for freight forwarders:exploitation of dynamic information for multimodal transportation

Advent of real-time information broadcasting technologies, growth in demand for air-cargo, and increased congestion and variability on air-road network, are the main forces compelling today\u27s air-freight forwarders to improve their operational decision-making to be more competitive and responsive to needs of customers. This research studies the air-cargo transportation on both road (short-haul) and air (long haul) network from the perspective of a mid-size freight forwarder. We develop a routing algorithm for congestion avoidance on air-network based on historical data and introduce an innovative approach to incorporate real-time information to enable dynamic routing of cargo on a stochastic air-network. In the road network, we introduce a new class of pickup and delivery problems to carry out the customer load pickups, fleet management, cargo-to-flight assignments, and airport deliveries in a multiple airport region under alternative access airport policy. The main contributions of this research to the air-cargo literature are the study of the value of real-time information and introduction of the concept of dynamic air-cargo routing. In addition, this is the first study that provides an operational framework to implement the alternative access airport policy. This research also contributes to operations research and logistics literature by introducing a new class of pickup and deliveries with time-sensitive and pair-dependent cost structure. It also contributes an innovative algorithm based on successive subproblem solving for Lagrangian decomposed mixed integer programming that shows to be efficient in obtaining near optimal solutions in reasonable time. The performances of the algorithms presented in this research are tested through experimental and real-world case studies. The results demonstrate that dynamic routing with real-time information can dramatically improve delivery reliability and reduce expected cost on the air-network. Moreover, they confirm that alternative access airport policy can greatly enhance a forwarder\u27s options and reduce the operational and service costs while improving the service levels

The future of the logistics industry in the European Union : an outlook to 2032 supported by current and upcoming market trends

This work project develops an outlook for the future of the logistics industry in the EU until 2032 and provides strategic recommendations for logistics managers. An analysis of the transactional and contextual environment is conducted based on primary and secondary research to generate future scenarios. The stability of the geopolitical and economic landscape and the density of the technology network are identified as critical uncertainties. Based on that, future scenarios are developed. Strategic short- and long-term options are recommended for different scenarios. Finally, early indicators are developed, helping industry stakeholders to monitor the environment and anticipate which scenario unfolds

Applications of Blockchain Technology in International Logistics - a Case Study

This work gives some insights about the beneficial impact that blockchain technology could have on the trust paradigm of modern supply chains, especially in the international logistics sector. The first two parts cover a non-technical but detailed description of how the Bitcoin protocol works and a deep dive on the possible applications of blockchain technology in the logistics industry. The third part is reserved for the Case Study, theorized with the help of Luxottica

Monitoring air cargo shipments: a framework for detecting potential delays and prescribing corrective measures.

Wan, Yulai.Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2007.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 42-44).Abstracts in English and Chinese.Abstract --- p.iAcknowledgement --- p.iiiChapter Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1Chapter Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.6Chapter Chapter 3 --- Framework --- p.10Chapter Chapter 4 --- The Simulation Model --- p.13Chapter Chapter 5 --- Phase 1: Detect Potential Delay --- p.15Chapter 5.1 --- The delay indicator --- p.15Chapter 5.2 --- Setting tolerance level --- p.20Chapter Chapter 6 --- Phase 2: Prescribe Corrective Measures --- p.22Chapter 6.1 --- Corrective measures --- p.22Chapter 6.2 --- Criteria of selecting measures --- p.24Chapter Chapter 7 --- Phase 3: Validate Corrective Measures --- p.30Chapter Chapter 8 --- Managerial Insights --- p.34Chapter 8.1 --- "Improvement potential, tolerance level and lateness of correction" --- p.34Chapter 8.2 --- Taking corrective measure before consolidation is helpful --- p.36Chapter 8.3 --- Reducing activity duration is a better way to lower activity criticality --- p.37Chapter Chapter 9 --- Conclusion and Future Research --- p.40References --- p.42Appendix: Program code for the simulation model --- p.4

Ocean container transport in global supply chains: Overview and research opportunities

This paper surveys the extant research in the field of ocean container transport. A wide range of issues is discussed including strategic planning, tactical planning and operations management issues, which are categorized into six research areas. The relationships be- tween these research areas are discussed and the relevant literature is reviewed. Representative models are selected or modified to provide a flavour of their functions and application context, and used to explain current shipping practices. Future research opportunities bearing in mind the emerging phenomena in the field are discussed. The main purpose is to raise awareness and encourage more research into and application of operations management techniques and tools in container transport chains