Robust no-free lunch with vanishing risk, a continuum of assets and proportional transaction costs

We propose a continuous time model for financial markets with proportional transactions costs and a continuum of risky assets. This is motivated by bond markets in which the continuum of assets corresponds to the continuum of possible maturities. Our framework is well adapted to the study of no-arbitrage properties and related hedging problems. In particular, we extend the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing of Guasoni, R\'asonyi and L\'epinette (2012) which concentrates on the one dimensional case. Namely, we prove that the Robust No Free Lunch with Vanishing Risk assumption is equivalent to the existence of a Strictly Consistent Price System. Interestingly, the presence of transaction costs allows a natural definition of trading strategies and avoids all the technical and un-natural restrictions due to stochastic integration that appear in bond models without friction. We restrict to the case where exchange rates are continuous in time and leave the general c\`adl\`ag case for further studies.Comment: 41 page

Mean reversion in stock index futures markets: a nonlinear analysis

Several stylized theoretical models of futures basis behavior under nonzero transactions costs predict nonlinear mean reversion of the futures basis towards its equilibrium value. Nonlinearly mean-reverting models are employed to characterize the basis of the SandP 500 and the FTSE 100 indices over the post-1987 crash period, capturing empirically these theoretical predictions and examining the view that the degree of mean reversion in the basis is a function of the size of the deviation from equilibrium. The estimated half lives of basis shocks, obtained using Monte Carlo integration methods, suggest that for smaller shocks to the basis level the basis displays substantial persistence, while for larger shocks the basis exhibits highly nonlinear mean reversion towards its equilibrium value. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc

On the Wedge between Theoretical and Actual Prices and its Implications for Investment Decisions

State of the arts equilibrium models explain several financial markets\u27 regularities but still miss many important dimensions. My research investigates the existing wedge between theoretical and actual prices and its implications for investment decisions. In the first chapter, I develop a new approach to locate and quantify the wedge between the main-stream Representative Agent pricing of the U.S. market portfolio and actual data. The determinants of the wedge are high uncertain and illiquid recessionary periods where, according to the marginal pricing rules, more efficient portfolios than the market can be formed. Since illiquidity is a major determinant, chapter two and three are devoted to the theoretical and empirical study of the impact of transaction costs on the optimal formation of equilibrium portfolios. Chapter two develops a single-period Mean-Variance theory able to solve large scale portfolio optimization problems in the presence of fixed and variable costs. Chapter three shows its relevance in the representative context of the FX markets

Overcoming the zero bound : Gesell vs. Eisler. Discussion of Mitsuhiro Fukao's "The effects of 'Gesell' (currency) taxes in promoting Japan's economic recovery".

Despite the zero lower bound on the short nominal interest rate in Japan having become a binding constraint, conventional monetary policy in Japan, in the form of generalised open market purchases of government securities of all maturities, has never been pushed to the limit where all outstanding government debt and all current and anticipated future government deficits are (or are confidently expected to be) monetised. Open market purchases of private securities can create serious governance problems. Two ways of overcoming the zero lower bound constraint have been proposed. The first is Gesell’s carry tax on currency. The second is Eisler’s proposal for the unbundling of the medium of exchange/means of payment function and the numéraire function of money through the creation of a parallel virtual currency. This raises the fundamental issue of who chooses or what determines the numéraire used in private wage and price contracts—an issue that is either not addressed in the literature or addressed incorrectly. On balance, Gesell’s proposal appears to be the more robust of the two.

Increasing returns and market efficiency in agricultural trade

"Using detailed trader surveys in Benin, Madagascar, and Malawi, this paper investigates the presence of increasing returns in agricultural trade. After analyzing margins, costs, and value added, we find little evidence of returns to scale. Motorized transport is found more cost effective for large loads on longer distances. But transporters pool quantities from multiple traders. Margin rates show little relationship with transaction size. Personal travel costs are a source of increasing returns, but the effect is small. Consequently, total marketing costs are nearly proportional to transaction size. Working and network capital are key determinants of value added. Constant returns to scale in all accumulable factors working capital, labor, and network capital cannot be projected. This implies that policies to restrict entry into agricultural trade are neither necessary nor useful. Governments should focus instead on technological and institutional innovations to upgrade agricultural markets." Authors' AbstractAgricultural trade ,Government policy ,Surveys ,Rate of return ,

Overcoming the zero bound on nominal interest rates with negative interest on currency : Gesell's solution.

An economy is in a liquidity trap when monetary policy cannot influence either real or nominal variables of interest. A necessary condition for this is that the short nominal interest rate is constrained by its lower bound, typically zero. The paper considers two small analytical models, one Old-Keynesian, the other New-Keynesian possessing equilibria where not only the short nominal interest rate, but nominal interest rates at all maturities can be stuck at their zero lower bound. When the authorities remove the zero nominal interest rate floor by adopting an augmented monetary rule that systematically keeps the nominal interest rate on base money (including currency) at or below the nominal interest rate on non-monetary instruments, the lower bound equilibria are eliminated, thus allowing an economic system to avoid the trap or to escape from it. This rule will involve paying negative interest on currency, that is, imposing a ‘carry tax’ on currency, an idea first promoted by Gesell. The administration costs associated with a currency carry tax must be set against the benefits of potentially lower shoe-leather costs and lower menu costs which are made possible by the its introduction. There are also output-gap avoidance benefits from eliminating the zero lower bound trap.

Mental Accounting in the Housing Market

We use a survey to identify a consumer bias with regard to different sources of debt-financing. Less salient debt may generate psychological benefits. This should be weighed against the possible economic costs of a sub-optimal capital structure; but low levels of financial literacy make it unlikely that all households perceive the full economic costs. As a result there is a bias in favour of less salient debt. In a market with limited scope for arbitrage this consumer bias is likely to generate inefficiencies. We examine such a market in both theory and practice. The predictions of our model are given strong support by market data.Household Finance; Mental Accounting; Co-op; Capital Structure