Transit Detection in the MEarth Survey of Nearby M Dwarfs: Bridging the Clean-First, Search-Later Divide

In the effort to characterize the masses, radii, and atmospheres of potentially habitable exoplanets, there is an urgent need to find examples of such planets transiting nearby M dwarfs. The MEarth Project is an ongoing effort to do so, as a ground-based photometric survey designed to detect exoplanets as small as 2 Earth radii transiting mid-to-late M dwarfs within 33 pc of the Sun. Unfortunately, identifying transits of such planets in photometric monitoring is complicated both by the intrinsic stellar variability that is common among these stars and by the nocturnal cadence, atmospheric variations, and instrumental systematics that often plague Earth-bound observatories. Here we summarize the properties of MEarth data gathered so far, and we present a new framework to detect shallow exoplanet transits in wiggly and irregularly-spaced light curves. In contrast to previous methods that clean trends from light curves before searching for transits, this framework assesses the significance of individual transits simultaneously while modeling variability, systematics, and the photometric quality of individual nights. Our Method for Including Starspots and Systematics in the Marginalized Probability of a Lone Eclipse (MISS MarPLE) uses a computationally efficient semi-Bayesian approach to explore the vast probability space spanned by the many parameters of this model, naturally incorporating the uncertainties in these parameters into its evaluation of candidate events. We show how to combine individual transits processed by MISS MarPLE into periodic transiting planet candidates and compare our results to the popular Box-fitting Least Squares (BLS) method with simulations. By applying MISS MarPLE to observations from the MEarth Project, we demonstrate the utility of this framework for robustly assessing the false alarm probability of transit signals in real data. [slightly abridged]Comment: accepted to the Astronomical Journal, 21 pages, 12 figure

Satellites of Infinite Rank in the Smooth Concordance Group

We conjecture that satellite operations are either constant or have infinite rank in the concordance group. We reduce this to the difficult case of winding number zero satellites, and use $SO(3)$ gauge theory to provide a general criterion sufficient for the image of a satellite operation to generate an infinite rank subgroup of the smooth concordance group $\mathcal{C}$. Our criterion applies widely, notably to scores of unknotted patterns for which the corresponding operators on the topological concordance group are zero. We raise some questions and conjectures regarding satellite operators and their interaction with concordance

Time-Distance Imaging of Solar Far-Side Active Regions

It is of great importance to monitor large solar active regions in the far-side of the Sun for space weather forecast, in particular, to predict their appearance before they rotate into our view from the solar east limb. Local helioseismology techniques, including helioseismic holography and time-distance, have successfully imaged solar far-side active regions. In this Letter, we further explore the possibility of imaging and improving the image quality of solar far-side active regions by use of time-distance helioseismology. In addition to the previously used scheme with four acoustic signal skips, a five-skip scheme is also included in this newly developed technique. The combination of both four- and five-skip far-side images significantly enhances the signal-to-noise ratio in the far-side images, and reduces spurious signals. The accuracy of the far-side active region imaging is also assessed using one whole year solar observation.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, accepted by ApJ Letter

Altimetry, gravimetry, GPS and viscoelastic modeling data for the joint inversion for glacial isostatic adjustment in Antarctica (ESA STSE Project REGINA)

The poorly known correction for the ongoing deformation of the solid Earth caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is a major uncertainty in determining the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from measurements of satellite gravimetry and to a lesser extent satellite altimetry. In the past decade, much progress has been made in consistently modeling ice sheet and solid Earth interactions; however, forward-modeling solutions of GIA in Antarctica remain uncertain due to the sparsity of constraints on the ice sheet evolution, as well as the Earth's rheological properties. An alternative approach towards estimating GIA is the joint inversion of multiple satellite data – namely, satellite gravimetry, satellite altimetry and GPS, which reflect, with different sensitivities, trends in recent glacial changes and GIA. Crucial to the success of this approach is the accuracy of the space-geodetic data sets. Here, we present reprocessed rates of surface-ice elevation change (Envisat/Ice, Cloud,and land Elevation Satellite, ICESat; 2003–2009), gravity field change (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE; 2003–2009) and bedrock uplift (GPS; 1995–2013). The data analysis is complemented by the forward modeling of viscoelastic response functions to disc load forcing, allowing us to relate GIA-induced surface displacements with gravity changes for different rheological parameters of the solid Earth. The data and modeling results presented here are available in the PANGAEA database (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.875745). The data sets are the input streams for the joint inversion estimate of present-day ice-mass change and GIA, focusing on Antarctica. However, the methods, code and data provided in this paper can be used to solve other problems, such as volume balances of the Antarctic ice sheet, or can be applied to other geographical regions in the case of the viscoelastic response functions. This paper presents the first of two contributions summarizing the work carried out within a European Space Agency funded study: Regional glacial isostatic adjustment and CryoSat elevation rate corrections in Antarctica (REGINA)

Shingle 2.0: generalising self-consistent and automated domain discretisation for multi-scale geophysical models

The approaches taken to describe and develop spatial discretisations of the domains required for geophysical simulation models are commonly ad hoc, model or application specific and under-documented. This is particularly acute for simulation models that are flexible in their use of multi-scale, anisotropic, fully unstructured meshes where a relatively large number of heterogeneous parameters are required to constrain their full description. As a consequence, it can be difficult to reproduce simulations, ensure a provenance in model data handling and initialisation, and a challenge to conduct model intercomparisons rigorously. This paper takes a novel approach to spatial discretisation, considering it much like a numerical simulation model problem of its own. It introduces a generalised, extensible, self-documenting approach to carefully describe, and necessarily fully, the constraints over the heterogeneous parameter space that determine how a domain is spatially discretised. This additionally provides a method to accurately record these constraints, using high-level natural language based abstractions, that enables full accounts of provenance, sharing and distribution. Together with this description, a generalised consistent approach to unstructured mesh generation for geophysical models is developed, that is automated, robust and repeatable, quick-to-draft, rigorously verified and consistent to the source data throughout. This interprets the description above to execute a self-consistent spatial discretisation process, which is automatically validated to expected discrete characteristics and metrics.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures, 1 table. Submitted for publication and under revie

Comparison of module usage of project management information system and success rate of construction projects: case study

If construction is about delivering a built asset that is of high quality and efficiency, wouldn t most companies use all the tools and processes available at the highest organizational level possible? A major assumption is made that Prolog Manager is an effective Project Management Information System. Saying Company X will benefit from more module use with Prolog Manager system is not the same as saying they will suffer from lack of module usage. If a company has already attained success using manual systems it successes may continue. To be as successful as possible, maximum utilization of all modules of Prolog Manager at the unique project type organizational level is necessary, and correlations can be made between higher module usage and greater project successes with this type of company size and structure.M.S.Committee Chair: Dr. Linda Thomas-Mobley; Committee Member: Dr. Daniel Castro; Committee Member: Prof. Kathy Roper; Committee Member: Ron L. Smit

LBT observations of the HR 8799 planetary system: First detection of HR8799e in H band

We have performed H and Ks band observations of the planetary system around HR 8799 using the new AO system at the Large Binocular Telescope and the PISCES Camera. The excellent instrument performance (Strehl ratios up to 80% in H band) enabled detection the inner planet HR8799e in the H band for the first time. The H and Ks magnitudes of HR8799e are similar to those of planets c and d, with planet e slightly brighter. Therefore, HR8799e is likely slightly more massive than c and d. We also explored possible orbital configurations and their orbital stability. We confirm that the orbits of planets b, c and e are consistent with being circular and coplanar; planet d should have either an orbital eccentricity of about 0.1 or be non-coplanar with respect to b and c. Planet e can not be in circular and coplanar orbit in a 4:2:1 mean motion resonances with c and d, while coplanar and circular orbits are allowed for a 5:2 resonance. The analysis of dynamical stability shows that the system is highly unstable or chaotic when planetary masses of about 5 MJup for b and 7 MJup for the other planets are adopted. Significant regions of dynamical stability for timescales of tens of Myr are found when adopting planetary masses of about 3.5, 5, 5, and 5 Mjup for HR 8799 b, c, d, and e respectively. These masses are below the current estimates based on the stellar age (30 Myr) and theoretical models of substellar objects.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures, A&A, accepte