Neuro-Fuzzy Based Intelligent Approaches to Nonlinear System Identification and Forecasting

Nearly three decades back nonlinear system identification consisted of several ad-hoc approaches, which were restricted to a very limited class of systems. However, with the advent of the various soft computing methodologies like neural networks and the fuzzy logic combined with optimization techniques, a wider class of systems can be handled at present. Complex systems may be of diverse characteristics and nature. These systems may be linear or nonlinear, continuous or discrete, time varying or time invariant, static or dynamic, short term or long term, central or distributed, predictable or unpredictable, ill or well defined. Neurofuzzy hybrid modelling approaches have been developed as an ideal technique for utilising linguistic values and numerical data. This Thesis is focused on the development of advanced neurofuzzy modelling architectures and their application to real case studies. Three potential requirements have been identified as desirable characteristics for such design: A model needs to have minimum number of rules; a model needs to be generic acting either as Multi-Input-Single-Output (MISO) or Multi-Input-Multi-Output (MIMO) identification model; a model needs to have a versatile nonlinear membership function. Initially, a MIMO Adaptive Fuzzy Logic System (AFLS) model which incorporates a prototype defuzzification scheme, while utilising an efficient, compared to the Takagi–Sugeno–Kang (TSK) based systems, fuzzification layer has been developed for the detection of meat spoilage using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. The identification strategy involved not only the classification of beef fillet samples in their respective quality class (i.e. fresh, semi-fresh and spoiled), but also the simultaneous prediction of their associated microbiological population directly from FTIR spectra. In the case of AFLS, the number of memberships for each input variable was directly associated to the number of rules, hence, the “curse of dimensionality” problem was significantly reduced. Results confirmed the advantage of the proposed scheme against Adaptive Neurofuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Partial Least Squares (PLS) techniques used in the same case study. In the case of MISO systems, the TSK based structure, has been utilized in many neurofuzzy systems, like ANFIS. At the next stage of research, an Adaptive Fuzzy Inference Neural Network (AFINN) has been developed for the monitoring the spoilage of minced beef utilising multispectral imaging information. This model, which follows the TSK structure, incorporates a clustering pre-processing stage for the definition of fuzzy rules, while its final fuzzy rule base is determined by competitive learning. In this specific case study, AFINN model was also able to predict for the first time in the literature, the beef’s temperature directly from imaging information. Results again proved the superiority of the adopted model. By extending the line of research and adopting specific design concepts from the previous case studies, the Asymmetric Gaussian Fuzzy Inference Neural Network (AGFINN) architecture has been developed. This architecture has been designed based on the above design principles. A clustering preprocessing scheme has been applied to minimise the number of fuzzy rules. AGFINN incorporates features from the AFLS concept, by having the same number of rules as well as fuzzy memberships. In spite of the extensive use of the standard symmetric Gaussian membership functions, AGFINN utilizes an asymmetric function acting as input linguistic node. Since the asymmetric Gaussian membership function’s variability and flexibility are higher than the traditional one, it can partition the input space more effectively. AGFINN can be built either as an MISO or as an MIMO system. In the MISO case, a TSK defuzzification scheme has been implemented, while two different learning algorithms have been implemented. AGFINN has been tested on real datasets related to electricity price forecasting for the ISO New England Power Distribution System. Its performance was compared against a number of alternative models, including ANFIS, AFLS, MLP and Wavelet Neural Network (WNN), and proved to be superior. The concept of asymmetric functions proved to be a valid hypothesis and certainly it can find application to other architectures, such as in Fuzzy Wavelet Neural Network models, by designing a suitable flexible wavelet membership function. AGFINN’s MIMO characteristics also make the proposed architecture suitable for a larger range of applications/problems

A Study of recent classification algorithms and a novel approach for biosignal data classification

Analyzing and understanding human biosignals have been important research areas that have many practical applications in everyday life. For example, Brain Computer Interface is a research area that studies the connection between the human brain and external systems by processing and learning the brain signals called Electroencephalography (EEG) signals. Similarly, various assistive robotics applications are being developed to interpret eye or muscle signals in humans in order to provide control inputs for external devices. The efficiency for all of these applications depends heavily on being able to process and classify human biosignals. Therefore many techniques from Signal Processing and Machine Learning fields are applied in order to understand human biosignals better and increase the efficiency and success of these applications. This thesis proposes a new classifier for biosignal data classification utilizing Particle Swarm Optimization Clustering and Radial Basis Function Networks (RBFN). The performance of the proposed classifier together with several variations in the technique is analyzed by utilizing comparisons with the state of the art classifiers such as Fuzzy Functions Support Vector Machines (FFSVM), Improved Fuzzy Functions Support Vector Machines (IFFSVM). These classifiers are implemented on the classification of same biological signals in order to evaluate the proposed technique. Several clustering algorithms, which are used in these classifiers, such as K-means, Fuzzy c-means, and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), are studied and compared with each other based on clustering abilities. The effects of the analyzed clustering algorithms in the performance of Radial Basis Functions Networks classifier are investigated. Strengths and weaknesses are analyzed on various standard and EEG datasets. Results show that the proposed classifier that combines PSO clustering with RBFN classifier can reach or exceed the performance of these state of the art classifiers. Finally, the proposed classification technique is applied to a real-time system application where a mobile robot is controlled based on person\u27s EEG signal

Forecasting Long-Term Government Bond Yields: An Application of Statistical and AI Models

This paper evaluates several artificial intelligence and classical algorithms on their ability of forecasting the monthly yield of the US 10-year Treasury bonds from a set of four economic indicators. Due to the complexity of the prediction problem, the task represents a challenging test for the algorithms under evaluation. At the same time, the study is of particular significance for the important and paradigmatic role played by the US market in the world economy. Four data-driven artificial intelligence approaches are considered, namely, a manually built fuzzy logic model, a machine learned fuzzy logic model, a self-organising map model and a multi-layer perceptron model. Their performance is compared with the performance of two classical approaches, namely, a statistical ARIMA model and an econometric error correction model. The algorithms are evaluated on a complete series of end-month US 10-year Treasury bonds yields and economic indicators from 1986:1 to 2004:12. In terms of prediction accuracy and reliability of the modelling procedure, the best results are obtained by the three parametric regression algorithms, namely the econometric, the statistical and the multi-layer perceptron model. Due to the sparseness of the learning data samples, the manual and the automatic fuzzy logic approaches fail to follow with adequate precision the range of variations of the US 10-year Treasury bonds. For similar reasons, the self-organising map model gives an unsatisfactory performance. Analysis of the results indicates that the econometric model has a slight edge over the statistical and the multi-layer perceptron models. This suggests that pure data-driven induction may not fully capture the complicated mechanisms ruling the changes in interest rates. Overall, the prediction accuracy of the best models is only marginally better than the prediction accuracy of a basic one-step lag predictor. This result highlights the difficulty of the modelling task and, in general, the difficulty of building reliable predictors for financial markets.interest rates; forecasting; neural networks; fuzzy logic.

Modelling activated sludge wastewater treatment plants using artificial intelligence techniques (fuzzy logic and neural networks)

Activated sludge process (ASP) is the most commonly used biological wastewater treatment system. Mathematical modelling of this process is important for improving its treatment efficiency and thus the quality of the effluent released into the receiving water body. This is because the models can help the operator to predict the performance of the plant in order to take cost-effective and timely remedial actions that would ensure consistent treatment efficiency and meeting discharge consents. However, due to the highly complex and non-linear characteristics of this biological system, traditional mathematical modelling of this treatment process has remained a challenge. This thesis presents the applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques for modelling the ASP. These include the Kohonen Self Organising Map (KSOM), backpropagation artificial neural networks (BPANN), and adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). A comparison between these techniques has been made and the possibility of the hybrids between them was also investigated and tested. The study demonstrated that AI techniques offer viable, flexible and effective modelling methodology alternative for the activated sludge system. The KSOM was found to be an attractive tool for data preparation because it can easily accommodate missing data and outliers and because of its power in extracting salient features from raw data. As a consequence of the latter, the KSOM offers an excellent tool for the visualisation of high dimensional data. In addition, the KSOM was used to develop a software sensor to predict biological oxygen demand. This soft-sensor represents a significant advance in real-time BOD operational control by offering a very fast estimation of this important wastewater parameter when compared to the traditional 5-days bio-essay BOD test procedure. Furthermore, hybrids of KSOM-ANN and KSOM-ANFIS were shown to result much more improved model performance than using the respective modelling paradigms on their own.Damascus Universit

Type-2 fuzzy logic system applications for power systems

PhD ThesisIn the move towards ubiquitous information & communications technology, an opportunity for further optimisation of the power system as a whole has arisen. Nonetheless, the fast growth of intermittent generation concurrently with markets deregulation is driving a need for timely algorithms that can derive value from these new data sources. Type-2 fuzzy logic systems can offer approximate solutions to these computationally hard tasks by expressing non-linear relationships in a more flexible fashion. This thesis explores how type-2 fuzzy logic systems can provide solutions to two of these challenging power system problems; short-term load forecasting and voltage control in distribution networks. On one hand, time-series forecasting is a key input for economic secure power systems as there are many tasks that require a precise determination of the future short-term load (e.g. unit commitment or security assessment among others), but also when dealing with electricity as commodity. As a consequence, short-term load forecasting becomes essential for energy stakeholders and any inaccuracy can be directly translated into their financial performance. All these is reflected in current power systems literature trends where a significant number of papers cover the subject. Extending the existing literature, this work focuses in how these should be implemented from beginning to end to bring to light their predictive performance. Following this research direction, this thesis introduces a novel framework to automatically design type-2 fuzzy logic systems. On the other hand, the low-carbon economy is pushing the grid status even closer to its operational limits. Distribution networks are becoming active systems with power flows and voltages defined not only by load, but also by generation. As consequence, even if it is not yet absolutely clear how power systems will evolve in the long-term, all plausible future scenarios claim for real-time algorithms that can provide near optimal solutions to this challenging mixed-integer non-linear problem. Aligned with research and industry efforts, this thesis introduces a scalable implementation to tackle this task in divide-and-conquer fashio

Soft Computing

Soft computing is used where a complex problem is not adequately specified for the use of conventional math and computer techniques. Soft computing has numerous real-world applications in domestic, commercial and industrial situations. This book elaborates on the most recent applications in various fields of engineering

Soft computing for tool life prediction a manufacturing application of neural - fuzzy systems

Tooling technology is recognised as an element of vital importance within the manufacturing industry. Critical tooling decisions related to tool selection, tool life management, optimal determination of cutting conditions and on-line machining process monitoring and control are based on the existence of reliable detailed process models. Among the decisive factors of process planning and control activities, tool wear and tool life considerations hold a dominant role. Yet, both off-line tool life prediction, as well as real tune tool wear identification and prediction are still issues open to research. The main reason lies with the large number of factors, influencing tool wear, some of them being of stochastic nature. The inherent variability of workpiece materials, cutting tools and machine characteristics, further increases the uncertainty about the machining optimisation problem. In machining practice, tool life prediction is based on the availability of data provided from tool manufacturers, machining data handbooks or from the shop floor. This thesis recognises the need for a data-driven, flexible and yet simple approach in predicting tool life. Model building from sample data depends on the availability of a sufficiently rich cutting data set. Flexibility requires a tool-life model with high adaptation capacity. Simplicity calls for a solution with low complexity and easily interpretable by the user. A neural-fuzzy systems approach is adopted, which meets these targets and predicts tool life for a wide range of turning operations. A literature review has been carried out, covering areas such as tool wear and tool life, neural networks, frizzy sets theory and neural-fuzzy systems integration. Various sources of tool life data have been examined. It is concluded that a combined use of simulated data from existing tool life models and real life data is the best policy to follow. The neurofuzzy tool life model developed is constructed by employing neural network-like learning algorithms. The trained model stores the learned knowledge in the form of frizzy IF-THEN rules on its structure, thus featuring desired transparency. Low model complexity is ensured by employing an algorithm which constructs a rule base of reduced size from the available data. In addition, the flexibility of the developed model is demonstrated by the ease, speed and efficiency of its adaptation on the basis of new tool life data. The development of the neurofuzzy tool life model is based on the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox (vl.0) of MATLAB (v4.2cl), a dedicated tool which facilitates design and evaluation of fuzzy logic systems. Extensive results are presented, which demonstrate the neurofuzzy model predictive performance. The model can be directly employed within a process planning system, facilitating the optimisation of turning operations. Recommendations aremade for further enhancements towards this direction