Very short-term photovoltaic power forecasting with cloud modeling: A review

This paper endeavors to provide the reader with an overview of the various tools needed to forecast photovoltaic (PV) power within a very short-term horizon. The study focuses on the specific application of a large scale grid-connected PV farm. Solar resource is largely underexploited worldwide whereas it exceeds by far humans' energy needs. In the current context of global warming, PV energy could potentially play a major role to substitute fossil fuels within the main grid in the future. Indeed, the number of utility-scale PV farms is currently fast increasing globally, with planned capacities in excess of several hundred megawatts. This makes the cost of PV-generated electricity quickly plummet and reach parity with non-renewable resources. However, like many other renewable energy sources, PV power depends highly on weather conditions. This particularity makes PV energy difficult to dispatch unless a properly sized and controlled energy storage system (ESU) is used. An accurate power forecasting method is then required to ensure power continuity but also to manage the ramp rates of the overall power system. In order to perform these actions, the forecasting timeframe also called horizon must be first defined according to the grid operation that is considered. This leads to define both spatial and temporal resolutions. As a second step, an adequate source of input data must be selected. As a third step, the input data must be processed with statistical methods. Finally, the processed data are fed to a precise PV model. It is found that forecasting the irradiance and the cell temperature are the best approaches to forecast precisely swift PV power fluctuations due to the cloud cover. A combination of several sources of input data like satellite and land-based sky imaging also lead to the best results for very-short term forecasting

Smart models to improve agrometeorological estimations and predictions

La población mundial, en continuo crecimiento, alcanzará de forma estimada los 9,7 mil millones de habitantes en el 2050. Este incremento, combinado con el aumento en los estándares de vida y la situación de emergencia climática (aumento de la temperatura, intensificación del ciclo del agua, etc.) nos enfrentan al enorme desafío de gestionar de forma sostenible los cada vez más escasos recursos disponibles. El sector agrícola tiene que afrontar retos tan importantes como la mejora en la gestión de los recursos naturales, la reducción de la degradación medioambiental o la seguridad alimentaria y nutricional. Todo ello condicionado por la escasez de agua y las condiciones de aridez: factores limitantes en la producción de cultivos. Para garantizar una producción agrícola sostenible bajo estas condiciones, es necesario que todas las decisiones que se tomen estén basadas en el conocimiento, la innovación y la digitalización de la agricultura de forma que se garantice la resiliencia de los agroecosistemas, especialmente en entornos áridos, semi-áridos y secos sub-húmedos en los que el déficit de agua es estructural. Por todo esto, el presente trabajo se centra en la mejora de la precisión de los actuales modelos agrometeorológicos, aplicando técnicas de inteligencia artificial. Estos modelos pueden proporcionar estimaciones y predicciones precisas de variables clave como la precipitación, la radiación solar y la evapotranspiración de referencia. A partir de ellas, es posible favorecer estrategias agrícolas más sostenibles, gracias a la posibilidad de reducir el consumo de agua y energía, por ejemplo. Además, se han reducido el número de mediciones requeridas como parámetros de entrada para estos modelos, haciéndolos más accesibles y aplicables en áreas rurales y países en desarrollo que no pueden permitirse el alto costo de la instalación, calibración y mantenimiento de estaciones meteorológicas automáticas completas. Este enfoque puede ayudar a proporcionar información valiosa a los técnicos, agricultores, gestores y responsables políticos de la planificación hídrica y agraria en zonas clave. Esta tesis doctoral ha desarrollado y validado nuevas metodologías basadas en inteligencia artificial que han ser vido para mejorar la precision de variables cruciales en al ámbito agrometeorológico: precipitación, radiación solar y evapotranspiración de referencia. En particular, se han modelado sistemas de predicción y rellenado de huecos de precipitación a diferentes escalas utilizando redes neuronales. También se han desarrollado modelos de estimación de radiación solar utilizando exclusivamente parámetros térmicos y validados en zonas con características climáticas similares a lugar de entrenamiento, sin necesidad de estar geográficamente en la misma región o país. Analógamente, se han desarrollado modelos de estimación y predicción de evapotranspiración de referencia a nivel local y regional utilizando también solamente datos de temperatura para todo el proceso: regionalización, entrenamiento y validación. Y finalmente, se ha creado una librería de Python de código abierto a nivel internacional (AgroML) que facilita el proceso de desarrollo y aplicación de modelos de inteligencia artificial, no solo enfocadas al sector agrometeorológico, sino también a cualquier modelo supervisado que mejore la toma de decisiones en otras áreas de interés.The world population, which is constantly growing, is estimated to reach 9.7 billion people in 2050. This increase, combined with the rise in living standards and the climate emergency situation (increase in temperature, intensification of the water cycle, etc.), presents us with the enormous challenge of managing increasingly scarce resources in a sustainable way. The agricultural sector must face important challenges such as improving natural resource management, reducing environmental degradation, and ensuring food and nutritional security. All of this is conditioned by water scarcity and aridity, limiting factors in crop production. To guarantee sustainable agricultural production under these conditions, it is necessary to based all the decision made on knowledge, innovation, and the digitization of agriculture to ensure the resilience of agroecosystems, especially in arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid dry environments where water deficit is structural. Therefore, this work focuses on improving the precision of current agrometeorological models by applying artificial intelligence techniques. These models can provide accurate estimates and predictions of key variables such as precipitation, solar radiation, and reference evapotranspiration. This way, it is possible to promote more sustainable agricultural strategies by reducing water and energy consumption, for example. In addition, the number of measurements required as input parameters for these models has been reduced, making them more accessible and applicable in rural areas and developing countries that cannot afford the high cost of installing, calibrating, and maintaining complete automatic weather stations. This approach can help provide valuable information to technicians, farmers, managers, and policy makers in key wáter and agricultural planning areas. This doctoral thesis has developed and validated new methodologies based on artificial intelligence that have been used to improve the precision of crucial variables in the agrometeorological field: precipitation, solar radiation, and reference evapotranspiration. Specifically, prediction systems and gap-filling models for precipitation at different scales have been modeled using neural networks. Models for estimating solar radiation using only thermal parameters have also been developed and validated in areas with similar climatic characteristics to the training location, without the need to be geographically in the same region or country. Similarly, models for estimating and predicting reference evapotranspiration at the local and regional level have been developed using only temperature data for the entire process: regionalization, training, and validation. Finally, an internationally open-source Python library (AgroML) has been created to facilitate the development and application of artificial intelligence models, not only focused on the agrometeorological sector but also on any supervised model that improves decision-making in other areas of interest

A Novel Adaptive Deformable Model for Automated Optic Disc and Cup Segmentation to Aid Glaucoma Diagnosis

This paper proposes a novel Adaptive Region based Edge Smoothing Model (ARESM) for automatic boundary detection of optic disc and cup to aid automatic glaucoma diagnosis. The novelty of our approach consists of two aspects: 1) automatic detection of initial optimum object boundary based on a Region Classifi- cation Model (RCM) in a pixel-level multidimensional feature space; 2) an Adaptive Edge Smoothing Update model (AESU) of contour points (e.g. misclassified or irregular points) based on iterative force field calculations with contours obtained from the RCM model by minimising energy function (an approach that does not require predefined geometric templates to guide autosegmentation). Such an approach provides robustness in capturing a range of variations and shapes. We have conducted a comprehensive comparison between our approach and the state-of-the-art existing deformable models and validated it with publicly available datasets. The experimental evaluation shows that the proposed approach significantly outperforms existing methods. The generality of the proposed approach will enable segmentation and detection of other object boundaries and provide added value in the field of medical image processing and analysis

Reframing social work assessment: Connecting spaces and people

This paper seeks to reframe social work assessment, reflect on complexity, autopoietic theory, narrative, and life stories, and introduces a conceptual interactive practice tool, Connecting Spaces. This tool is being designed to facilitate assessments and therapeutic work with children and vulnerable adults in person and online. Social work is concerned with systems involving people, often during crisis, their environments, and networks where engagement and assessment cannot function outside of communication between assessor and assessed. Social workers are nested within their own personal, biological, and professional networks including employing agency and professional regulatory bodies. Complexity arises because social workers must condense information into stories of what might happen and make sense how best to support people. Munro (2011) in her review of child protection explains social workers try to understand and help people and she reflects on the interplay between conscious analysis and intuition in assessment and decision making. Ten years on from Munro’s recommendations The Case for Change (Children’s Social Care Independent Review, 2021) highlights the continued need for less bureaucratic process-led practice and more direct work with children and families.Given the prominence of attachment theory in social work, it is a surprise Siegal’s Mindsight, which is the capacity to clarify, label and analyse the internal emotional world and its response to the external word, has gained little attention in social work. The potential for Mindsight’s application in social work is enhanced by narratives, storytelling and life story therapy with children and vulnerable adults. Connecting Spaces can be used to create a narrative about the person's life: past, present and/or future. The aim is to inform and improve decision making by enabling the person's understanding, views, wishes and feelings to be explored, heard, presented, evidenced, and considered. Further, it has the potential to present and consider multi-perspectives and narratives such as in family and wider systems. This flexible communication conceptual tool is designed to have a range of uses and it is intended to be provided in both digital and physical form to suit a range of needs. This tool does not aim to replace but to enhance building relationship, safety, and communication in direct work with a child or vulnerable adult

Crab and cockle shells as heterogeneous catalysts in the production of biodiesel

In the present study, the waste crab and cockle shells were utilized as source of calcium oxide to transesterify palm olein into methyl esters (biodiesel). Characterization results revealed that the main component of the shells are calcium carbonate which transformed into calcium oxide upon activated above 700 °C for 2 h. Parametric studies have been investigated and optimal conditions were found to be catalyst amount, 5 wt.% and methanol/oil mass ratio, 0.5:1. The waste catalysts perform equally well as laboratory CaO, thus creating another low-cost catalyst source for producing biodiesel. Reusability results confirmed that the prepared catalyst is able to be reemployed up to five times. Statistical analysis has been performed using a Central Composite Design to evaluate the contribution and performance of the parameters on biodiesel purity

Molecular phylogeny of horseshoe crab using mitochondrial Cox1 gene as a benchmark sequence

An effort to assess the utility of 650 bp Cytochrome C oxidase subunit I (DNA barcode) gene in delineating the members horseshoe crabs (Family: xiphosura) with closely related sister taxa was made. A total of 33 sequences were extracted from National Center for Biotechnological Information (NCBI) which include horseshoe crabs, beetles, common crabs and scorpion sequences. Constructed phylogram showed beetles are closely related with horseshoe crabs than common crabs. Scorpion spp were distantly related to xiphosurans. Phylogram and observed genetic distance (GD) date were also revealed that Limulus polyphemus was closely related with Tachypleus tridentatus than with T.gigas. Carcinoscorpius rotundicauda was distantly related with L.polyphemus. The observed mean Genetic Distance (GD) value was higher in 3rd codon position in all the selected group of organisms. Among the horseshoe crabs high GC content was observed in L.polyphemus (38.32%) and lowest was observed in T.tridentatus (32.35%). We conclude that COI sequencing (barcoding) could be used in identifying and delineating evolutionary relatedness with closely related specie

Epistemological issues in the theory of Chinese medicine

Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) has been criticized for being unscientific because the theory on which it is based involves entities like qi and ’meridians’ that appear ambiguous and because the internal ‘organs’ like the kidney and the spleen are very different from those of modern anatomy and physiology. Even more so, TCM methods of therapy based on the yin-yang principle, the model of the five elements, and the classification of illnesses according to standard constellations of symptoms (TCM “syndromes”) are largely unproven by the protocols of modern evidence-based medicine. This dissertation attempts to reconstruct TCM theory by: (a) providing explanations of TCM entities as abstractions and constructs that relate to observable body functions and illness symptoms and (b) interpreting TCM theory as comprising heuristic models that were constructed from clinical experience to fit empirical observations of illnesses and their treatments with herbal medications and acupuncture. It suggests that scientists should be less concerned with the ontological status of TCM entities and the epistemic credentials of TCM models than with the ability of these concepts and models to guide physicians in therapy. More importantly, it makes the argument that these models are testable using the methods of evidence-based medicine. There are methodological difficulties associated with randomized controlled trials partly because TCM treatments tend to be individualized and syndromes are dynamic in nature; observational trials may be more appropriate in some situations. It is also possible that, for patients who are more culturally attuned to TCM, the placebo effect is strongly at play and may render the real effects of TCM treatments harder to tease out in clinical trials. The dissertation concludes that the main postulates of TCM should be put to rigorous test. The result may be a leaner but more robust theory, with parts that do not stand up to the test being rejected or modified, and a possible acceptance of its more modest therapeutic claims for a limited range of pathological conditions like pain and chronic illnesses

Response to short-term deprivation of the human adult visual cortex measured with 7T BOLD

Sensory deprivation during the post-natal 'critical period' leads to structural reorganization of the developing visual cortex. In adulthood, the visual cortex retains some flexibility and adapts to sensory deprivation. Here we show that short-term (2 hr) monocular deprivation in adult humans boosts the BOLD response to the deprived eye, changing ocular dominance of V1 vertices, consistent with homeostatic plasticity. The boost is strongest in V1, present in V2, V3 and V4 but absent in V3a and hMT+. Assessment of spatial frequency tuning in V1 by a population Receptive-Field technique shows that deprivation primarily boosts high spatial frequencies, consistent with a primary involvement of the parvocellular pathway. Crucially, the V1 deprivation effect correlates across participants with the perceptual increase of the deprived eye dominance assessed with binocular rivalry, suggesting a common origin. Our results demonstrate that visual cortex, particularly the ventral pathway, retains a high potential for homeostatic plasticity in the human adult

Evolutionary Robot Swarms Under Real-World Constraints

Tese de doutoramento em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores, na especialidade de Automação e Robótica, apresentada ao Departamento de Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores da Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade de CoimbraNas últimas décadas, vários cientistas e engenheiros têm vindo a estudar as estratégias provenientes da natureza. Dentro das arquiteturas biológicas, as sociedades que vivem em enxames revelam que agentes simplistas, tais como formigas ou pássaros, são capazes de realizar tarefas complexas usufruindo de mecanismos de cooperação. Estes sistemas abrangem todas as condições necessárias para a sobrevivência, incorporando comportamentos de cooperação, competição e adaptação. Na “batalha” sem fim em prol do progresso dos mecanismos artificiais desenvolvidos pelo homem, a ciência conseguiu simular o primeiro comportamento em enxame no final dos anos oitenta. Desde então, muitas outras áreas, entre as quais a robótica, beneficiaram de mecanismos de tolerância a falhas inerentes da inteligência coletiva de enxames. A área de investigação deste estudo incide na robótica de enxame, consistindo num domínio particular dos sistemas robóticos cooperativos que incorpora os mecanismos de inteligência coletiva de enxames na robótica. Mais especificamente, propõe-se uma solução completa de robótica de enxames a ser aplicada em contexto real. Nesta ótica, as operações de busca e salvamento foram consideradas como o caso de estudo principal devido ao nível de complexidade associado às mesmas. Tais operações ocorrem tipicamente em cenários dinâmicos de elevadas dimensões, com condições adversas que colocam em causa a aplicabilidade dos sistemas robóticos cooperativos. Este estudo centra-se nestes problemas, procurando novos desafios que não podem ser ultrapassados através da simples adaptação da literatura da especialidade em algoritmos de enxame, planeamento, controlo e técnicas de tomada de decisão. As contribuições deste trabalho sustentam-se em torno da extensão do método Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) aplicado a sistemas robóticos cooperativos, denominado de Robotic Darwinian Particle Swarm Optimization (RDPSO). O RDPSO consiste numa arquitetura robótica de enxame distribuída que beneficia do particionamento dinâmico da população de robôs utilizando mecanismos evolucionários de exclusão social baseados na sobrevivência do mais forte de Darwin. No entanto, apesar de estar assente no caso de estudo do RDPSO, a aplicabilidade dos conceitos aqui propostos não se encontra restrita ao mesmo, visto que todos os algoritmos parametrizáveis de enxame de robôs podem beneficiar de uma abordagem idêntica. Os fundamentos em torno do RDPSO são introduzidos, focando-se na dinâmica dos robôs, nos constrangimentos introduzidos pelos obstáculos e pela comunicação, e nas suas propriedades evolucionárias. Considerando a colocação inicial dos robôs no ambiente como algo fundamental para aplicar sistemas de enxames em aplicações reais, é assim introduzida uma estratégia de colocação de robôs realista. Para tal, a população de robôs é dividida de forma hierárquica, em que são utilizadas plataformas mais robustas para colocar as plataformas de enxame no cenário de forma autónoma. Após a colocação dos robôs no cenário, é apresentada uma estratégia para permitir a criação e manutenção de uma rede de comunicação móvel ad hoc com tolerância a falhas. Esta estratégia não considera somente a distância entre robôs, mas também a qualidade do nível de sinal rádio frequência, redefinindo assim a sua aplicabilidade em cenários reais. Os aspetos anteriormente mencionados estão sujeitos a uma análise detalhada do sistema de comunicação inerente ao algoritmo, para atingir uma implementação mais escalável do RDPSO a cenários de elevada complexidade. Esta elevada complexidade inerente à dinâmica dos cenários motivaram a ultimar o desenvolvimento do RDPSO, integrando para o efeito um mecanismo adaptativo baseado em informação contextual (e.g., nível de atividade do grupo). Face a estas considerações, o presente estudo pode contribuir para expandir o estado-da-arte em robótica de enxame com algoritmos inovadores aplicados em contexto real. Neste sentido, todos os métodos propostos foram extensivamente validados e comparados com alternativas, tanto em simulação como com robôs reais. Para além disso, e dadas as limitações destes (e.g., número limitado de robôs, cenários de dimensões limitadas, constrangimentos reais limitados), este trabalho contribui ainda para um maior aprofundamento do estado-da-arte, onde se propõe um modelo macroscópico capaz de capturar a dinâmica inerente ao RDPSO e, até certo ponto, estimar analiticamente o desempenho coletivo dos robôs perante determinada tarefa. Em suma, esta investigação pode ter aplicabilidade prática ao colmatar a lacuna que se faz sentir no âmbito das estratégias de enxames de robôs em contexto real e, em particular, em cenários de busca e salvamento.Over the past decades, many scientists and engineers have been studying nature’s best and time-tested patterns and strategies. Within the existing biological architectures, swarm societies revealed that relatively unsophisticated agents with limited capabilities, such as ants or birds, were able to cooperatively accomplish complex tasks necessary for their survival. Those simplistic systems embrace all the conditions necessary to survive, thus embodying cooperative, competitive and adaptive behaviours. In the never-ending battle to advance artificial manmade mechanisms, computer scientists simulated the first swarm behaviour designed to mimic the flocking behaviour of birds in the late eighties. Ever since, many other fields, such as robotics, have benefited from the fault-tolerant mechanism inherent to swarm intelligence. The area of research presented in this Ph.D. Thesis focuses on swarm robotics, which is a particular domain of multi-robot systems (MRS) that embodies the mechanisms of swarm intelligence into robotics. More specifically, this Thesis proposes a complete swarm robotic solution that can be applied to real-world missions. Although the proposed methods do not depend on any particular application, search and rescue (SaR) operations were considered as the main case study due to their inherent level of complexity. Such operations often occur in highly dynamic and large scenarios, with harsh and faulty conditions, that pose several problems to MRS applicability. This Thesis focuses on these problems raising new challenges that cannot be handled appropriately by simple adaptation of state-of-the-art swarm algorithms, planning, control and decision-making techniques. The contributions of this Thesis revolve around an extension of the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to MRS, denoted as Robotic Darwinian Particle Swarm Optimization (RDPSO). The RDPSO is a distributed swarm robotic architecture that benefits from the dynamical partitioning of the whole swarm of robots by means of an evolutionary social exclusion mechanism based on Darwin’s survival-of-the-fittest. Nevertheless, although currently applied solely to the RDPSO case study, the applicability of all concepts herein proposed is not restricted to it, since all parameterized swarm robotic algorithms may benefit from a similar approach The RDPSO is then proposed and used to devise the applicability of novel approaches. The fundamentals around the RDPSO are introduced by focusing on robots’ dynamics, obstacle avoidance, communication constraints and its evolutionary properties. Afterwards, taking the initial deployment of robots within the environment as a basis for applying swarm robotics systems into real-world applications, the development of a realistic deployment strategy is proposed. For that end, the population of robots is hierarchically divided, wherein larger support platforms autonomously deploy smaller exploring platforms in the scenario, while considering communication constraints and obstacles. After the deployment, a way of ensuring a fault-tolerant multi-hop mobile ad hoc communication network (MANET) is introduced to explicitly exchange information needed in a collaborative realworld task execution. Such strategy not only considers the maximum communication range between robots, but also the minimum signal quality, thus refining the applicability to real-world context. This is naturally followed by a deep analysis of the RDPSO communication system, describing the dynamics of the communication data packet structure shared between teammates. Such procedure is a first step to achieving a more scalable implementation by optimizing the communication procedure between robots. The highly dynamic characteristics of real-world applications motivated us to ultimate the RDPSO development with an adaptive strategy based on a set of context-based evaluation metrics. This thesis contributes to the state-of-the-art in swarm robotics with novel algorithms for realworld applications. All of the proposed approaches have been extensively validated in benchmarking tasks, in simulation, and with real robots. On top of that, and due to the limitations inherent to those (e.g., number of robots, scenario dimensions, real-world constraints), this Thesis further contributes to the state-of-the-art by proposing a macroscopic model able to capture the RDPSO dynamics and, to some extent, analytically estimate the collective performance of robots under a certain task. It is the author’s expectation that this Ph.D. Thesis may shed some light into bridging the reality gap inherent to the applicability of swarm strategies to real-world scenarios, and in particular to SaR operations.FCT - SFRH/BD /73382/201